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在接下来的7个州初选中应该知道什么,应该关注谁

2022-06-08 13:44  -ABC   - 

七个州的选民周二前往投票站,为美国竞争最激烈的一些众议院席位挑选党内提名人,他们的选择将受到重划选区等关键因素的影响,这些因素将有助于决定明年谁控制国会。

加州、爱荷华州、密西西比州、蒙大拿州、新墨西哥州、新泽西州和南达科他州将在正在进行的初选中投票。

最引人注目的发展之一将是全新的国会选区的结果,这是基于上次人口普查和每个州关于谁绘制新地图的规则。在大多数情况下,州立法机构负有责任,观察人士跟踪了全国各地的新线路如何有利于一方而不是另一方,一些新地图经受了一轮又一轮的争议和司法审查。

这些新席位的候选人凸显了民主党和共和党的党内动态波动。最新一轮初选还包括两党中一些处境最危险的在任者。

PHOTO: Rep. Cindy Axne speaks at the POET Bioprocessing facility in Menlo, Iowa, April 12, 2022.

2022年4月12日,众议员辛迪·阿克斯恩在爱荷华州门洛的诗人生物加工厂发表演讲。

瑞秋·梅米/彭博通过盖蒂图片,文件

加利福尼亚州共和党众议员迈克·加西亚(Mike Garcia)投票不认证2020年的选举结果,大卫·瓦拉多(David Valadao)是10名投票弹劾唐纳德·特朗普的共和党人之一1月6日的守灵-在该州最近的十年一次的重划后,他们试图在民主党选民登记中吸收近12个百分点的优势的地区保留席位。

与此同时,在爱荷华州,民主党众议员辛迪·阿克斯恩正在抓住她的摇摆选区,因为她的州越来越右。

来自新泽西州的民主党现任议员汤姆·马林诺夫斯基(Tom Kennedy)正在进行一场漫长的斗争,以保住他最近获得共和党支持的第七国会选区,该选区重新划分是为了让该州的民主党人支持其他一些弱势议员。

新墨西哥州第二个国会席位的竞争突显了一个新成立的选区,该选区在2020年从特朗普转向乔·拜登(Joe Biden),领先17个百分点。现任共和党众议员伊维特·赫瑞尔(Yvette Herrell)和领先的墨西哥裔前拉斯克鲁塞斯议员、参议员马丁·海因里希(Martin Heinrich)的前助手加布·瓦斯奎兹(Gabe Schmidt)之间的竞选将难分胜负。在加州,民主党众议员迈克·莱文(Mike Levin)的第49选区最近变得更倾向于共和党。

重划选区将现任共和党众议员米歇尔·斯蒂尔(Michelle Steel)与加利福尼亚州奥兰治县的民主党筹款巨头众议员凯蒂·波特(Katie Porter)拉入同一选区,迫使前者转移到第45区。

对犯罪和治安的担忧也会在一些初选中表现出来。旧金山地区检察官Chesa Boudin面临罢免,他的对手认为他在打击该市的犯罪方面做得不够,而他的支持者则表示他正在试图修复和重新想象执法。旧金山是美国最自由的城市之一如果选民真的赶走了布丹,这可能是一个明显的迹象,表明进步检察官在大都市地区能走多远。

在旧金山南部,犯罪也对洛杉矶市长竞选产生了影响。亿万富翁、房地产开发商里克·卡鲁索在这里的知名度越来越高。前共和党人、自称“中间派”的卡鲁索承诺加大对洛杉矶警察局的投资,并关注公共安全。竞选中的另一位主要竞争者是民主党众议员凯伦·巴斯,她已经在国会服务了六届,也是拜登副总统竞选伙伴的长名单上的一员。巴斯吹捧她自己对该市犯罪的广泛计划,反映出这仍然是当地选民最关心的问题。

加州的初选将把光转移到另一个种族:共和党众议院少数党领袖凯文·麦卡锡在第20国会选区竞选连任。周日,麦卡锡获得了前总统特朗普的支持,特朗普称他是他所在地区的“不知疲倦的倡导者”,也是拜登和众议院议长南希·佩洛西的主要对手。

但即使他支持麦卡锡,特朗普也没有提到如果共和党控制众议院,他会支持麦卡锡竞选议长。如果共和党夺回多数席位,人们普遍预计麦卡锡将寻求议长职位,特朗普的支持将至关重要。

后,在爱荷华州,州民主党人推动88岁的共和党参议员查克·格拉斯利下台的努力正在成为周二的一场主要初选战,这可能表明该党在为历史上的紫色州进行更激烈的斗争之前组织混乱。前众议员艾比·芬克瑙尔(Abby Finkenauer)正在与退休的美国海军中将迈克·弗兰肯(Mike Franken)展开日益激烈的竞争。虽然这场初选原本打算让人脉广泛的芬克瑙尔轻松获胜,但涉及爱荷华州最高法院的选票可及性障碍和一些竞选管理挑战反而使她陷入了一场与弗兰肯更具竞争力的竞赛。两人都将面对乡村医生格伦·赫斯特。

What to know and who to watch in the next 7 state primaries

Voters in seven states head to the polls on Tuesday to pick party nominees for some of the nation's most competitive House seats -- and their choices will be shaped by key forces, like redistricting, that will help decide who controls Congress next year.

California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey and South Dakota are next to vote in the ongoing primaries.

One of the marquee developments will be the outcome in brand new congressional districts, which were based on the last census and each state's rules about who drew the new maps. In most cases, the state legislatures were responsible, with observers tracking how the new lines across the country favor one party over another -- and with some new maps enduring rounds of controversy and judicial review.

The candidates for some of these new seats highlight fluctuating intraparty dynamics for both Democrats and Republicans. The latest batch of primaries also features some of the most endangered incumbents from either party.

California Republican Reps. Mike Garcia -- who voted not to certify the 2020 election results -- and David Valadao -- one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump in thewake of Jan. 6-- are attempting to keep their seats in districts that absorbed a near 12-point edge in Democratic voter registration after the state's latest decennial redraw.

Meanwhile, in Iowa, Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne is grasping at her swing district as her state has moved further and further right.

Fellow Democratic incumbent Tom Malinowski, of New Jersey, is in a long-shot fight to keep hold of his newly GOP-favorable 7th Congressional District, which was redrawn in order for the state's Democrats to bolster a number of their other vulnerable lawmakers.

The contest for New Mexico's second congressional seat highlights a newly formed district that shifted in 2020 from Trump to Joe Biden by 17 points. It'll be a toss-up race between incumbent Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell and front-runner Gabe Vasquez, a Mexican-born former Las Cruces councilman and former aide to Sen. Martin Heinrich. In California, Democratic Rep. Mike Levin's 49th District was recently made slightly more Republican.

Redistricting drew incumbent Republican Rep. Michelle Steel into the same district as Democratic fundraising powerhouse Rep. Katie Porter in Orange County, California, forcing the former to move over to the 45th District.

Concerns about crime and policing will also play out in some primaries. San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin faces a recall, with his opponents arguing he has not done enough to combat criminals in the city while his supporters say he's trying to fix and reimagine law enforcement. San Franciscois one of the most liberal cities in Americaand if voters do kick out Boudin, it could be a telling sign of how far progressive prosecutors can go in metro areas.

South of San Francisco, crime is also having an impact in the Los Angeles mayoral race. where billionaire real estate developer Rick Caruso has seen his profile rise. Caruso, a former Republican and self-described "centrist," has promised to invest more in L.A.'s police department and focus on public safety. The other leading contender in the race is Democratic Rep. Karen Bass, who has served six terms in Congress and was also on the long list to be Biden's vice presidential running mate. Bass has touted her own extensive plans for crime in the city, reflecting how it remains top of mind for local voters.

California's primary will shift light onto another race: GOP House Minority LeaderKevin McCarthyis up for reelection in the 20th Congressional District. On Sunday, McCarthy received an endorsement from former President Trump, who called him a "tireless advocate" for his area and a chief opponent of Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

But even though he endorsed McCarthy, Trump did not mention supporting McCarthy in his run for speaker should Republicans gain control of the House. McCarthy is widely expected to seek the speakership, should the GOP retake the majority, and Trump's support would be critical.

Last, in Iowa, state Democrats' push to unseat 88-year-old Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley is shaping up to be a major primary battle on Tuesday -- and one that could illustrate disorganization in the party ahead of more fierce fighting for the historically purple state. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer is in an ever-tightening race against retired U.S. Navy Vice Adm. Mike Franken. While that primary had been intended as an easy win for the well-connected Finkenauer, ballot accessibility hurdles involving the Iowa Supreme Court and some campaign management challenges instead put her into a much more competitive race with Franken. Both will also be up against rural physician Glenn Hurst.

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