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为什么降低油价没那么简单

2022-06-17 11:17  -ABC   - 

加油泵处的疼痛越来越严重,驾车者开始问,有缓解的迹象吗?

一加仑汽油的全国平均价格上周超过了5美元的历史最高价据GasBuddy称。在平均油价最高的加州,司机要支付令人瞠目结舌的每加仑6.43美元,AAA数据显示。

专家告诉ABC新闻,价格飙升归因于供求的基本经济原则。在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致数百万桶石油退出市场后,全球市场正经历原油供应短缺,夏季旅行让美国人开始加油。

专家说,目前的危机加剧了供应紧张,这种紧张是由疫情引发的生产放缓造成的,生产放缓没有赶上需求的重新飙升。

看不到缓解迹象的天价引发了政府官员之间的尖锐分歧,他们不知道该如何应对。国会的共和党成员乔·拜登总统的失误对于价格上涨,理由是什么他们描述了他的“美国能源之战”与此同时,拜登指责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后价格飙升,多次称之为“普京的涨价”

专家告诉美国广播公司新闻,除了从战略储备中额外释放石油或汽油税假期外,政府政策无法在短期内有效缓解价格上涨,这些都可能只会降低一小部分成本。但他们补充说,现在采取的措施可能有助于促进长期下跌,并使市场免受未来动荡的影响。

“没有一蹴而就的解决方案,”CFRA研究公司的能源分析师Stewart Glickman说。“从长远来看,它们可能会有所作为。”

以下是一些应对油价危机的潜在政策解决方案,以及专家们认为这些方案是否可行。

从战略石油储备中释放更多的石油

今年3月,美国宣布承诺在接下来的六个月内每天从其战略石油储备(SPR)中释放约100万桶石油,此举旨在缓解部分供应短缺和抑制价格上涨。美国的一些盟友也宣布了类似的决定。

一些专家告诉美国广播公司新闻,美国SPR石油的释放稍微缓解了汽油价格的上涨。Raymond James的资深能源分析师帕维尔莫尔查诺夫(Pavel Molchanov)表示:“如果不动用这些储备,油价甚至会更高。”

专家说,如果美国决定从其储备中释放更多的石油,此举可能会进一步略微减缓天然气价格的上涨。莫尔查诺夫说,但拜登政府应该三思而后行,扩大储备石油的释放,因为这可能会耗尽7亿桶储备,足以在近两年内每天释放100万桶。

“我们需要对此负责,”莫尔查诺夫说。"我们不可能一下子用完所有的库存."

鼓励国内石油生产

周三,拜登致信主要炼油公司,呼吁他们采取“立即行动”增加产量。这封信指责这些公司利用市场环境来获取利润,而美国人却难以负担得起天然气,信中还提到了拜登援引国防生产法案的可能性,该法案要求公司生产被认为是国家安全所必需的产品。

CFRA的能源分析师格利克曼说,拜登的举动不太可能增加供应和降低天然气价格,因为国内工业已经以高达96%的产能运行。格利克曼补充说,炼油厂不可能在短期内增加产能。

格利克曼说,拜登“有点跑题了”。"这些是像战舰一样移动的工业系统,而不是小艇."

美国炼油厂的产能比疫情之前的水平每天低100万桶,因为自2020年初以来,已有数家炼油厂关闭或转型。根据美国能源信息管理局的数据,或者EIA。该机构表示,今年第二和第三季度的炼油厂投入将平均每天1670万桶。

刺激美国产量增长的一个方法包括对石油公司利润征税。但格利克曼说,这样的举措不会消除提高石油产能的障碍。

“无论你是否对该行业征税,都不会改变你带回多少产能,”他说。

一些国会共和党议员批评拜登限制钻探许可,并在去年关闭了Keystone XL管道。但根据的数据,美国去年的石油产量与特朗普政府最后一年(2020年)的产量几乎相同,高于2017年或2018年的产量来自环境影响评估的数据。

特朗普政府执政期间,美国石油产量一直在增加,直到2020年疫情引发的产量大幅下降。根据EIA数据。

保守派智库美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)的能源政策专家詹姆斯科尔曼(James Coleman)表示,放松对石油钻探的限制将带来石油供应的长期收益。

科尔曼说:“如果你要改革这些,需要一段时间才能对石油和天然气市场产生影响。”“另一方面,如果你在一个洞里,也许第一步就是停止挖掘。”

专家表示,总体而言,美国石油产量的增加将有助于在未来五年或十年内降低天然气价格,并保护该行业免受未来供应冲击的影响。然而,一些专家指出,该部门不愿积极扩大生产是由于股东施加的财政纪律以及可再生能源的持续增长。“我们知道能源转型会在某个时候到来,”CFRA分析师格利克曼说。

汽油税假期

由民主党和共和党州长领导的几个州已经暂停征收汽油税,作为给司机提供一些财政救济的手段。但是这些举措仅仅降低了价格的一小部分。例如,在纽约州,州长Kathy Hochul本月暂停了大约每加仑16美分的税收。根据美国汽车协会的数据,纽约每加仑汽油的平均价格为5美元,减税相当于降低了3.2%的成本。

联邦政府可以向前迈进,暂停汽油税,相当于每加仑18.4美分。但这样的举措也只能将5美元一加仑的汽油价格降低不到5%。尽管如此,消费者可能更愿意看到一些缓解,而不是没有缓解。

但倾向自由派的经济政策研究所(Economic Policy Institute)高级经济学家亚当·赫什(Adam Hersh)告诉美国广播公司新闻(ABC News),暂停汽油税将剥夺一个阻止将汽油用于其他目的的关键政策工具,并将取消一个专门针对基础设施的资金来源。

“汽油税在抑制汽油用于其他能源和运输方式方面发挥了作用,同时也与基础设施投资的资金来源相关,”他说。

Why lowering gas prices isn't that simple

The pain at the pump is getting worse and has motorists asking, is there any relief in sight?

The average nationwide price of a gallon of gassurpassed an all-time high of $5 last week, according to GasBuddy. In California, the state with the highest average gas price, drivers are paying an eye-popping $6.43 per gallon,AAA data showed.

The price surge owes to the fundamental economic principle of supply and demand, experts told ABC News. Summer travel has sent Americans to the pump at a time when the global market is experiencing a shortage of crude oil supply after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which pushed millions of barrels of oil off the market.

And the current crisis exacerbates a supply crunch that has endured from a pandemic-induced production slowdown that hasn’t caught up with the renewed surge in demand, the experts said.

The sky-high prices with no relief in sight have set off sharp disagreement among public officials over what should be done in response. Republican members of Congress havefaulted President Joe Bidenfor the price increases, citing whatthey've describedas his “war on American energy.” At the same time,Biden has blamedthe price surge on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, repeatedly calling it “Putin’s price hike.”

Government policy cannot meaningfully relieve the price increases in the short term, besides an additional release of oil from the strategic reserve or a gas tax holiday, each of which would likely reduce just a fraction of the cost, experts told ABC News. But steps taken now could help foster decreases over the long term and insulate the market from future disruptions, they added.

“There are not the overnight kind of solutions,” said Stewart Glickman, an energy analyst for CFRA Research. “In the longer term, they might make a difference.”

Here are some potential policy solutions to the gas price crisis and whether the experts think they would work.

Releasing more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In March, the U.S. announced a commitment to release about 1 million barrels per day from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or SPR, over the ensuing six months — a move that aimed to alleviate some of the supply shortage and blunt price increases. The decision came alongside similar announcements from some U.S. allies.

The release of oil from the U.S. SPR is offering slight relief for the rise in the price of gasoline, some experts told ABC News. “The price of oil would be even higher without those stockpiles being used,” said Pavel Molchanov, a senior energy analyst at Raymond James.

If the U.S. decided to release even more oil from its reserves, the move could marginally slow the rise in gas prices even further, the experts said. But the Biden administration should think twice about expanding its release of reserve oil because it could drain the 700 million-barrel stockpile, enough to release 1 million barrels per day for nearly two years, Molchanov said.

“We need to be responsible about it,” Molchanov said. “We cannot use all of those stockpiles in one fell swoop.”

Encouraging domestic oil production

On Wednesday, Biden sent a letter to major oil refinery companies calling on them to take “immediate actions” to increase output. The letter accused the companies of taking advantage of the market environment to reap profits while Americans struggle to afford gas, and it mentioned the possibility of Biden invoking the Defense Production Act, which requires companies to produce goods deemed necessary for national security.

Glickman, the energy analyst at CFRA, said the move from Biden is unlikely to increase supply and lower gas prices, since the domestic industry is already operating at as high as 96% capacity. The refineries cannot add capacity in a short period of time, Glickman added.

Biden is “missing the point a little,” Glickman said. “These are industrial systems that move like battleships, not dinghies.”

U.S. oil refinery capacity stands 1 million barrels per day lower than pre-pandemic levels because several refineries have been closed or converted since early 2020,according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA. Refinery inputs for the second and third quarter of this year will average 16.7 million barrels per day, the agency said.

One approach to incentivizing an increase in U.S. production includes a potential tax on oil company profits. But such a move wouldn’t remove the impediments to greater oil production capacity, Glickman said.

“Whether you do something like taxing the industry or not, it isn’t going to change how much capacity you bring back,” he said.

Some Republican members of Congress have criticized Biden for drilling permit restrictions and the shuttering of the Keystone XL Pipeline last year. But oil production in the U.S. last year was nearly identical to that seen over the final year of the Trump administration, in 2020, and greater than the amount produced in 2017 or 2018, according todata from the EIA.

U.S. oil production increased throughout the years of the Trump administration until a sharp, pandemic-induced drop that began in 2020,according to EIA data.

Loosening restrictions on oil drilling would yield long-term gains in oil supply, said James Coleman, an energy policy expert at the conservative-leaning think tank American Enterprise Institute.

“If you were to reform those, it would take a while to have an impact on oil and gas markets,” Coleman said. “On the other hand, if you’re in a hole, maybe the first step is to stop digging.”

Overall, increased U.S. oil production would help reduce gas prices over the next five or 10 years, and protect the industry from future supply shocks, the experts said. However, some experts noted that the sector's reluctance to aggressively expand production owes to fiscal discipline imposed by shareholders as well as the continued rise of renewable energy. "We know the energy transition is coming at some point," said Glickman, the CFRA analyst.

Gas tax holiday

A handful of states — led by both Democratic and Republican governors — have suspended their gas taxes as a means of delivering some financial relief for drivers. But the moves only reduce costs by a fraction of the price. In New York State, for instance, Gov. Kathy Hochul this month suspended a roughly 16-cent-per gallon tax. With the average price of a gallon of gas in New York standing at $5, according to AAA, the tax relief amounts to a 3.2% cost reduction.

The federal government could move forward and suspend its gas tax, which amounts to 18.4 cents per gallon. But such a move would also reduce the cost of a $5 gallon of gas by less than 5%. Still, consumers would likely prefer some relief to no relief.

But suspending the gas tax would take away a key policy tool for discouraging the use of gasoline for other purposes, and it would remove a funding source targeted specifically for infrastructure, ​​Adam Hersh, senior economist at the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute, told ABC News.

“The gas tax plays a role in disincentivizing the use of gasoline for other energy sources and transportation methods, as well as being tied to funding sources for infrastructure investment,” he said.

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