圣路易斯-佩内洛普·奎格是共和党的终身选民。
但密苏里州科尔县共和党主席表示，如果该州前州长埃里克·格雷滕斯今年夏天赢得该党提名竞选参议员席位，她不会投票给他。格雷滕斯-曾经名誉扫地-现在正在领导一场复兴的运动，四年前他在刑事调查和弹劾威胁中辞职，承认婚外情，但否认其他指控，最终包括涉嫌虐待前妻。
“我质疑他的一切，”奎格说，他是四位县共和党主席之一，他告诉美国广播公司新闻，他们不会在大选中投票给格雷滕斯——即使这意味着冒着民主党在2020年前总统唐纳德·特朗普以超过15%的支持率获胜的风险。
奎格并不孤单:对密苏里州近12名现任和前任共和党领导人的采访揭示了对格雷滕斯的普遍厌恶，以及如果他在8月2日赢得提名，体制内许多人对支持他的犹豫。
那又怎样?他的竞选团队宣称效忠前总统唐纳德·特朗普。“格雷滕斯正在做他需要做的事情来赢得选民，”他的竞选经理迪伦·约翰逊在一份声明中说。“他每周都会举办多次草根活动。他正在引领美国第一议程的对话。”
但是，接受美国广播公司新闻采访的官员几乎都表示相信，格雷滕斯在初选中获胜将使退休的共和党人罗伊·布朗特(Roy Blunt)打开的参议院席位有可能落入民主党手中——即使在有利于寻求夺回国会的保守派的国家环境中。
这些担忧在周一得到了强调，当时格雷滕斯的竞选团队发布了一个立即引起争议的视频广告，显示他手持突击步枪，在身着迷彩服的持枪男子的支持下，冲进一所房子，追捕“里诺”，即名义上的共和党人。
许多接受美国广播公司采访的共和党人谴责格雷滕斯的视频，称其“疯狂”和“乏味”，他们担心这会煽动暴力。
圣路易斯西北部林肯县的共和党主席加里·格鲁尼克说:“这太可怕了。”。“而我是个枪侠。我身边有很多枪。这完全是不负责任的。”
密苏里州共和党执行委员会成员Rene Artman告诉ABC新闻:“我很担心，因为我觉得可能有人会认真对待他。在当前的形势下，你不能做出这样的评论。”
“我完全赞成第二修正案。如果你想要一把枪，你可以有一把，”Artman补充说，他是该州最大的县圣路易斯的党主席。“但对于格雷滕斯来说，使用‘MAGA’这个词并呼吁‘猎杀’里诺是一种完全的耻辱，他需要下台。”
脸书删除了该视频，Twitter将其隐藏在一个关于“虐待行为”的警告后面
格雷滕斯的竞选经理在一份声明中说，“那些对视频和比喻有异议的人不是在撒谎就是在装傻。我们认为大型科技公司及其寡头都是。”
格雷滕斯告诉当地早间节目他津津乐道于这种“假装的愤怒”,并注意到这段视频给他的筹款网站带来了多大的兴趣。
这么多行李
尽管格雷滕斯成为了头条新闻，但一些密苏里州的共和党人表示，他不是最佳选择:FiveThirtyEight编制的民调显示，在与民主党领袖的假想对决中，他的领先优势比他的主要对手要小，其他保守派人士将这种差异归因于将他推下办公室的丑闻以及他的前妻今年早些时候提出的家庭虐待指控。
2018年，两年前当选州长的格雷滕斯辞职，同时面临与涉嫌竞选财务违规有关的指控，后来在与检察官的一项协议中被撤销。他还承认与一名理发师有染，并被指控敲诈该理发师，但他对此予以否认。与此案相关的侵犯隐私重罪指控也被撤销。
今年早些时候，在一份引人注目的证词中，他的前妻说他在婚姻期间虐待了她和他们年幼的儿子，格雷滕斯否认了这一指控。贾芳·格雷滕斯的指控包括，她的丈夫在晚餐时打了他们儿子的脸，在另一场争吵中，他狠狠地打了儿子，导致他“脸肿了，牙龈出血，还有一颗牙齿松动。”(他们正在进行的监护权纠纷的法庭记录显示，格雷滕夫妇一直在调解，审判定于7月进行。)
“他不适合担任公职，”圣路易斯南部杰斐逊县共和党中央委员会主席吉姆·伯贝里奇告诉美国广播公司新闻。“选民不会乐意支持一个在如此短的时间内背负如此多包袱的美国参议员候选人。”
密苏里州西部弗农县的共和党主席辛迪亚·哈格特(Cyndia Haggart)称格雷滕斯“不会成功”。
她说:“他是受损的商品，只有那些人不能当选。”"我们将把那个席位让给民主党人。"
在3月份滥用指控被披露后，州共和党执行委员会成员阿特曼写了一封信，要求密苏里州共和党主席尼克·迈尔斯(Nick Myers)将格雷滕斯从选票中删除。但是她告诉ABC新闻，该党没有采取这些措施。
当被问及如果格雷滕斯赢得提名，她是否会投他一票时，阿特曼告诉美国广播公司新闻，“绝对不会。”
迈尔斯没有回应关于格雷滕斯候选人资格的多次置评请求。
仍然受欢迎
尽管有疑虑，大多数接受美国广播公司采访的共和党人认为格雷滕斯是战胜众议员维基·哈兹勒和密苏里州司法部长埃里克·施密特等对手赢得提名的有力竞争者。
“很多人不相信发生了什么，”杰克逊县(包括堪萨斯城)共和党委员会主席大卫·莱特纳说。莱特纳在解释格雷滕斯对选民的乐观态度时，指的是家庭虐待指控。莱特纳还提到了他的高调和与特朗普的联系。
“是的，他失去了很多共和党人。但问题是，他有一个50万人的电子邮件列表，他还有金伯利·吉尔福伊尔(Kimberly Guilfoyle)和小唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump Jr .)以及其他几个支持他的人，”莱特纳补充道，他指的是前总统的长子和他儿子的未婚妻
莱特纳说，格雷滕斯的支持基础“是稳固的”
密苏里州共和党前主席、现为政治顾问的让·埃文斯将格雷滕斯的受欢迎程度归功于该党热情的选民。
她告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“现在共和党的某些人非常热衷于除掉里诺。”。
与此同时，一些共和党领导人认为民调可能低估了格雷滕斯的受欢迎程度。
“有很多顽固的共和党人不会站出来说他们会投他的票。当他们去投票站投票时，情况可能会有所不同，”约翰逊县共和党中央委员会成员维奥莱特·科比特(Violet Corbett)说。
多名当地共和党人表示，支持格雷滕斯的政治行动委员会投资了攻击他的主要对手的广告，但据他们所知，密苏里州内外的共和党团体没有协调对他的金融攻击。
国家共和党参议院委员会的发言人没有回应就该组织参与初选发表评论的请求。
格雷滕斯的竞选团队驳斥了任何认为他在大选中不如其他共和党人的观点，并回击了那些表示将拒绝投票给他的县领导。
“这就是RINO人的定义——愿意让一个座位变成蓝色，因为他们不愿意为保守的价值观而战，”竞选经理约翰逊说。
民主党能在密苏里州获胜吗?
据FiveThirtyEight汇编的民调显示，在2008年总统大选中，巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)与约翰·麦凯恩(John McCain)不分上下的密苏里州，在随后的几个周期中转向右翼，特朗普在2016年和2020年以两位数的优势赢得了该州，并在假设的2024年与密苏里州选民的对决中超过了总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)。
但在格雷滕斯，一些人看到了民主党人利用弱势候选人在红州夺回参议院席位的机会，正如民主党人克莱尔·麦卡斯基尔(Claire McCaskill)2012年在密苏里州以15个百分点的优势击败共和党人托德·阿金斯(Todd Akins)一样，后者因发表关于“合法强奸”的评论而遭到广泛反弹。
在一次采访中，民主党参议员候选人卢卡斯·孔斯(Lucas Kunce)拒绝透露他是否更愿意在大选中与格雷滕斯而不是另一名共和党人对决。
“我们只是在跑我们的比赛。他代表我们不代表的一切，”孔斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。
“我认为这个家伙现在应该在监狱里。我认为他根本不应该出现在选票上。如果发生了，我们就要粉碎它。但我认为这很可悲，”他补充道。
但是密苏里民主党主席迈克尔·巴特勒说，面对除格雷滕斯以外的任何人都会更加困难。
“我认为我们的机会少了，”他告诉ABC新闻，“但我们肯定还有机会。”
Missouri Republicans sound the alarm on a scandal-plagued, resurgent Eric Greitens: 'Damaged goods'
St. Louis --Penelope Quigg is a lifelong Republican voter.
But the chair of the Republican Party in Cole County, Missouri, said she won't vote for Eric Greitens, her state's former governor, if he wins the party's nomination this summer for an open Senate seat. Greitens -- once disgraced -- is now leading a resurgent campaign four years after he resigned amid a criminal investigation and the threat of impeachment, admitting to an extramarital affair but denying other claims that ultimately included alleged abuse of his ex-wife.
"Everything about him I question," said Quigg, one of four county GOP chairs who told ABC News that they would not vote for Greitens in the general election -- even if it means risking a Democratic victory in a state former President Donald Trump carried by more than 15% in 2020.
Quigg isn't alone: Interviews with nearly a dozen current and former Republican Party leaders in Missouri, where voting in the Senate primary began this week, revealed a broad distaste for Greitens and a hesitation by many in the establishment to support him were he to win the nod on Aug. 2.
So what? says his campaign, which touted his allegiance to former President Donald Trump. "Greitens is doing exactly what he needs to do to win over voters," his campaign manager Dylan Johnson said in a statement. "He's holding grassroots events multiple times a week. He's leading the conversation on the America First agenda."
But the officials who spoke with ABC News nearly all expressed a belief that a Greitens win in the primary race would put the Senate seat, opened by retiring Republican Roy Blunt, in jeopardy of falling into Democratic hands -- even in a national environment that favors the conservatives seeking to regain Congress.
Those concerns were underscored on Monday when Greitens' campaign released an instantly controversial video ad showing him armed with an assault rifle and backed by weapon-carrying men dressed in camouflage to storm into a house to hunt "RINOs," or Republicans in name only.
Many of the Republicans interviewed by ABC News condemned Greitens' video, calling it "demented" and "tasteless" and they are worrying it could incite violence.
"It's absolutely horrible," said Gary Grunick, chair of the Republican Party in Lincoln County, northwest of St. Louis. "And I'm a gun person. I've got plenty of guns around. It's just totally irresponsible."
Rene Artman, a member of the Missouri Republican Party's executive committee, told ABC News: "I'm quite concerned because I feel that there could be people who take him seriously. You don't make comments like that in today's climate with what's going on."
"I'm all in favor of the Second Amendment. If you want a gun, you can have a gun," added Artman, who serves as the party chair in the state's biggest county, St. Louis. "But for Greitens to use the word 'MAGA' and to call for the 'hunting' of 'RINOs' is a total disgrace and he needs to step down."
Facebook removed the video and Twitter hid it behind a warning about "abusive behavior."
In a statement, Greitens' campaign manager said, "Those who have an issue with the video and the metaphor are either lying or dumb. We believe Big Tech and its oligarchs are both."
Greitenstold a local morning showthat he relished the "faux outrage" and noted how much interest the clip drove to his fundraising website.
'So much baggage'
For all the headlines Greitens makes, some Missouri Republicans say he is not the best choice: Polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight show him leading by slimmer margins than his primary opponents in hypothetical matchups with leading Democrats, a discrepancy other conservatives attribute to the scandals that pushed him from office and the allegations of domestic abuse leveled by his ex-wife earlier this year.
In 2018, Greitens, who was elected governor two years prior, resigned while facing a charge connected to alleged campaign finance violations, which was later dropped in a deal with prosecutors. He had also admitted to an affair with a hairdresser, whom he was accused of blackmailing, which he denied. A felony invasion-of-privacy charge related to that case was also dropped.
Earlier this year, in a striking affidavit, his ex-wife said he had abused her and their young son during their marriage, claims which Greitens has rejected. The accusations by Sheena Greitens included a charge that her husband struck their son across the face during dinner and, in another altercation, hit the boy so hard that he was left with "a swollen face, bleeding gums, and [a] loose tooth." (Court records in their ongoing custody dispute show the Greitens have been in mediation, with a trial set for July.)
"He's not fit for office," Jim Berberich, chair of the Republican central committee in Jefferson County, south of St. Louis, told ABC News. "Voters are not going to be happy to support a candidate for the U.S. Senate who has so much baggage that he amassed in such a short order."
Cyndia Haggart, the GOP chair in Vernon County, in western Missouri, called Greitens "a non-starter."
"He is damaged goods, and there are just those people who are not electable," she said. "We will hand that seat to a Democrat."
After the abuse allegations were disclosed in March, Artman, the member of the state Republican executive committee, wrote a letter asking Nick Myers, chair of the Missouri state GOP, to remove Greitens from the ballot. But she told ABC News the party did not take those steps.
Asked if she would vote for Greitens if he won the nomination, Artman told ABC News, "Hell no."
Myers did not respond to multiple requests for comment about Greitens' candidacy.
Still popular
Despite their misgivings, most Republicans who spoke to ABC News consider Greitens a serious contender to win the nomination over opponents like Rep. Vicky Hartzler and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt.
"A lot of people don't believe what happened," said David Lightner, chair of the Republican Committee in Jackson County, which includes Kansas City. Lightner was referring to the domestic abuse allegations while explaining Greitens' buoyancy with voters. Lightner also cited his high profile and connections to Trump.
"Yes, he lost a lot of Republicans. But the thing is, he's got a 500,000 email list that he goes by, and he also has Kimberly Guilfoyle and [Donald Trump Jr.] and a few others who are supporting him," Lightner added, referring to the former president's oldest son and his son's fiancée.
Greitens' base of support, said Lightner, "is solid."
Jean Evans, a former chair of the Missouri Republican Party who is now a political consultant, attributes Greitens' popularity to a passionate slice of the base.
"There's a real fervor among a certain segment of the Republican Party now to get rid of RINOs," she told ABC News.
Meanwhile, some GOP leaders think polls might be undervaluing Greitens' popularity.
"There's a lot of diehard Republicans who just aren't going to get out there in front and say they're voting for him. When they go in and vote at the polls, it may be different," said Violet Corbett, a member of the Johnson County Republican Central Committee.
Multiple local Republicans said that a PAC supporting Greitens has invested in attack ads against his primary opponents but, to their knowledge, Republican groups inside and outside Missouri have not coordinated financial attacks on him.
A spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee did not respond to a request for comment about the group's involvement in the primary.
Greitens' campaign dismissed any notion that he would be less competitive in a general election than other Republicans and struck back at county leaders who said they would refuse to vote for him.
"That's the definition of a RINO— willing to let a seat turn blue because they aren't willing to fight for conservative values," Johnson, the campaign manager, said.
Can a Democrat win in Missouri?
Missouri, where Barack Obama ran neck-and-neck with John McCain in the 2008 presidential election, veered rightward in subsequent cycles, with Trump winning the state by double digits in 2016 and 2020 and outpacing President Joe Biden with Missouri voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
But in Greitens, some see a chance for Democrats to take advantage of a weakened candidate and steal back a Senate seat in a red state, as Democrat Claire McCaskill did in Missouri in 2012 when she won out by 15 points over Todd Akins, a Republican who drew widespread backlash for a comment about "legitimate rape."
In an interview, Lucas Kunce, a leading Democratic candidate for Senate, declined to say whether he would prefer to face Greitens in a general matchup over another Republican.
"We're just running our race. He stands for everything that we don't stand for," Kunce told ABC News.
"I think the guy should be in a jail cell at this point. I don't think he should be on the ballot at all. If it happens, we're going to crush it. But I think it's sad," he added.
But Michael Butler, chair of the Missouri Democratic Party, said that facing anyone but Greitens would be more difficult.
"I think we'd have less of a chance," he told ABC News," but we'd definitely still have a chance."
