周二，美国总统乔·拜登(Joe Biden)首次以总统身份前往中东，访问以色列、被占领的约旦河西岸和沙特阿拉伯，此行的中心议题是鼓励以色列和阿拉伯国家之间不断发展的关系，同时重置美国政府与沙特阿拉伯的关系。

分析人士对美国广播公司新闻频道(ABC News)表示，拜登的政府一直专注于遏制中国在亚洲的崛起，并联合欧洲反对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，拜登的访问凸显了这一动荡地区对美国外交政策和全球经济的战略重要性。

从拜登与沙特阿拉伯事实上的领导人的备受期待的会晤，到他解决国内高油价的努力，以及重申美国对以色列安全的承诺，本周行程中有七件事值得关注。

沙特重置?

作为总统候选人，拜登发誓要让石油丰富的沙特阿拉伯成为一个“贱民”国家，因为2018年沙特持不同政见者和华盛顿邮报专栏作家贾迈勒·哈肖吉(Jamal Khashoggi)被谋杀，这是美国情报机构后来的一项行动包括是由王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼授权的，他也被称为“MBS ”,实际上掌管着这个海湾国家。

拜登还承诺“重新评估”传统上密切的美国-沙特联盟来自911袭击受害者家属的电话让沙特王国对与恐怖袭击背后的劫机者的联系“负责”——以及来自他自己政党内部的压力，以迫使沙特阿拉伯结束对也门内战的干预。根据联合国的说法，也门内战导致了世界上最严重的人道主义危机之一。

自上任以来，拜登已经与正式统治该国的王储的父亲萨勒曼国王谈过两次话。

但他也派遣国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀(Lloyd Austin)担任他的政府与王储的联系人，这被广泛认为是对这位强大的沙特领导人的冷落。

去年春天，两国关系跌入低谷据报告的穆罕默德王子和他的阿联酋同行拒绝安排与拜登的电话通话，因为他们对美国在该地区的政策感到失望。(白宫当时告诉记者，“没有被拒绝的电话。”)

周六，拜登计划出席在吉达举行的阿拉伯领导人峰会，王储也将出席，但尚不清楚两位领导人将如何互动或接触。

白宫表示，穆罕默德王子预计将参加拜登周五与萨勒曼国王和国王“领导团队”举行的双边会议。但美国国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文周一拒绝透露公众是否会看到拜登和王储握手。

专家称，乌克兰石油迫使拜登出手

几位专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，鉴于沙特阿拉伯在该地区的影响力，以及在天然气价格飙升和西方试图抵制俄罗斯石油的时候，它作为世界上最大的石油生产国之一的地位，美国和沙特阿拉伯之间的和解是不可避免的。

“如果没有乌克兰战争，人们对(沙特阿拉伯)的关注会少得多。这是毫无疑问的，”格雷戈里·高斯博士说，他是沙特阿拉伯问题专家，也是德克萨斯大学乔治·布什政府和公共服务学院国际事务系主任&M大学，告诉ABC新闻。

拜登为自己的方法辩护，他写道《华盛顿邮报》的专栏文章周六发表“我的目标是重新定位——而不是断绝——与一个80年来一直是战略伙伴的国家的关系。”

“作为总统，我的职责是保持我们国家的强大和安全，”他写道。“我们必须反击俄罗斯的侵略，将自己置于尽可能有利的位置，以战胜中国，并为世界上一个重要地区的更大稳定而努力。

“要做这些事情，”他继续说道，“我们必须与能够影响这些结果的国家直接接触。沙特阿拉伯是其中之一，当我周五会见沙特领导人时，我的目标将是加强基于共同利益和责任的战略伙伴关系，同时坚持美国的基本价值观。”

沙特的到访会降低油价吗?专家说，可能不会

拜登计划参加阿拉伯国家联盟海湾合作委员会的领导人峰会，埃及、伊拉克和约旦的领导人也将参加峰会;这个组织被称为“GCC+3”

沙利文周一表示，白宫认为产油的海湾国家“有能力采取进一步措施”增加石油产量，尽管他不会说拜登是否计划要求沙特阿拉伯和其他国家增加一定数量的产量。

专家告诉美国广播公司新闻，目前还不清楚沙特阿拉伯是否真的能对美国的天然气价格产生很大影响，随着需求的下降，最近几周美国的天然气价格已经开始从创纪录的每加仑5美元的平均水平下降。

“沙特人可以做一些事情，”沙特阿拉伯问题专家高斯说。“但我认为，即使他们真的打开了水龙头，也不会把价格降低到，你知道，在COVID中间的位置。”

塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院(Fletcher School at Tufts University)气候政策实验室(Climate Policy Lab)的常务董事艾米·迈耶斯·贾菲(Amy Meyers Jaffe)表示，最重要的是确保“市场上已经存在的供应留在市场上。”

“其中一部分是与中东的生产商接触，因为我不清楚他们还能生产多少，”她告诉美国广播公司新闻。

事实上，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙据报道偷听上个月，他告诉拜登，阿联酋已经达到“最大”产能，沙特只能在短期内将日产量增加相对较少的15万桶。

一个新的中东?

将近50年前，当拜登第一次访问以色列时，该国正与大部分阿拉伯世界处于战争状态。

现在，在特朗普政府斡旋的几项和平协议(即亚伯拉罕协议)之后，以色列与阿联酋、巴林和摩洛哥建立了外交关系——此外还有与约旦和埃及的现有和平条约。

以色列、沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家在伊朗有着共同的敌人:以色列认为伊朗的核计划是一个生存威胁，而该国的弹道导弹和地区代理人已经瞄准了沙特和阿联酋的石油基础设施。

虽然此行预计不会取得重大外交突破，但拜登的访问可能有助于沙特阿拉伯和以色列实现关系正常化，并在地区安全方面加强协调——目前限制伊朗核计划的新谈判已经陷入僵局。

卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高级研究员、曾担任美国驻突尼斯大使的雅各布·瓦尔斯(Jacob Walles)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，“该地区正在观察沙特愿意走多远。

Walles说，虽然沙特阿拉伯王储已经表示支持向以色列靠拢，但鉴于沙特的公众舆论和对以色列的反对，重大的外交进展可能需要时间。

Walles说，86岁的萨勒曼国王还可能“限制”以色列在以色列-巴勒斯坦和平进程中缺乏进展的任何突破，这一直是以色列与其邻国关系的症结。

在他的华盛顿邮报专栏拜登指出，他将是第一位从以色列飞往沙特阿拉伯吉达的美国总统，并称这是以色列和阿拉伯世界加深联系的一个“小象征”。

拜登说:“以色列人认为我此行非常重要。”告诉记者在上个月的新闻发布会上。

在人权问题上小心翼翼

随着拜登寻求与沙特阿拉伯和解并与以色列建立牢固的关系，他必须在经济和安全利益与人权问题之间取得平衡。

在巴勒斯坦裔美国记者Shireen Abu Akleh死亡后，美国采取了谨慎的态度，这位著名的半岛电视台记者在5月份报道以色列在被占领的约旦河西岸的军事袭击时被杀害。

在她的葬礼上，以色列警察殴打送葬者和护柩者，这引起了广泛的全球谴责。

美国国务院7月4日表示，在审查了美国和巴勒斯坦对阿布·阿克里死亡的调查后，它发现以色列军队的枪击很可能杀死了她，但它“没有发现任何理由认为这是故意的，而是悲惨情况的结果。”

当被问及拜登是否计划在访问期间就此案向以色列官员施压时，白宫新闻秘书郭佳欣·让-皮埃尔告诉记者，“我们希望看到问责。”

但阿布·阿克里的兄弟在上周晚些时候写给拜登的一封信中写道，“你的政府的参与起到了粉饰夏琳被杀事件和延续有罪不罚现象的作用。”路透社报道。他要求拜登在该地区会见他的家人。

与此同时，Khashoggi在2018年被谋杀是拜登承诺让沙特阿拉伯成为“贱民”的原因，但白宫一再拒绝透露总统在会见王储时是否会提出这个问题。

拜登一直认为世界正处于民主和专制之间的转折点，他的沙特阿拉伯之行表明，当经济和安全利益受到威胁时，民主国家可能会被迫向专制国家屈服。

“对于一个美国总统来说，去(沙特阿拉伯)是非常非常耻辱的，”乔治华盛顿大学国际商业和国际事务名誉教授侯赛因·阿斯卡里告诉美国广播公司新闻。

“也许美国人民看不到这一点，”他继续说道。“但在世界各地的独裁者眼中，以及在中东的眼中，人们将会笑逐颜开。”

和平进程呢?

以色列和几个阿拉伯国家之间的亚伯拉罕协议是唐纳德·特朗普总统推行的少数几项得到拜登称赞的外交政策之一。

但这些协议抛弃了在与以色列的任何正常化谈判中提升巴勒斯坦问题的长期原则，将巴勒斯坦人自己排除在谈判之外——尽管阿拉伯国家确实寻求以色列做出有利于巴勒斯坦人的让步。

专家预计本周巴以关系不会有任何突破——拜登政府也没有透露任何预期的进展。

然而，有报道称，沙特阿拉伯允许以色列飞机飞越它的领土-以及美国支持的旨在解决红海岛屿国际争端的外交努力。

拜登政府已经扭转了特朗普的几项政策，这些政策降低了美国与巴勒斯坦人的关系——例如恢复对联合国巴勒斯坦难民机构的资助——尽管他没有兑现特朗普关闭的美国驻耶路撒冷领事馆重新开放的承诺。以色列政策论坛(Israel Policy Forum)首席政策官迈克尔·科普兰(Michael Koplow)表示，巴勒斯坦的其他愿望——在华盛顿重开办事处和解决其他资金问题——都有待国会采取行动，但这些行动尚未实现。

也门战争是一大焦点

由于协商停火，也门内战在过去四个月已经暂停。

这是近八年战争中最长的停火，这场战争导致了联合国称之为世界上最严重的人道主义危机。

沙特阿拉伯领导了一个联盟，支持也门政府打击由伊朗支持的反叛组织胡塞。美国支持沙特阿拉伯的参与，该国在很大程度上依赖空袭。

然而，由于对战争的处理，拜登已经停止了对沙特阿拉伯的进攻性武器销售。虽然沙利文周一告诉美国广播公司新闻，禁令将暂时保留，但白宫最近几周赞扬了穆罕默德王子在实现持续停火方面的作用。

白宫官员表示，也门战争将是拜登访问沙特阿拉伯的一大焦点。

7 things to watch for on Biden's trip to Israel, Saudi Arabia

President Joe Biden on Tuesday heads to the Middle East for the first time as president, visiting Israel, the occupied West Bank and Saudi Arabia in a trip centered on encouraging the growing ties between Israel and Arab countries, while resetting his administration's relationship with Saudi Arabia.

Coming as his administration has focused on countering China's rise in Asia and uniting Europe against Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Biden's visit underscores the volatile region's strategic importance to U.S. foreign policy and the global economy, analysts told ABC News.

From Biden's highly-anticipated meeting with Saudi Arabia's de-facto leader, to his efforts to address high gas prices at home and reaffirm the U.S. commitment to Israel's security, here are seven things to watch on the trip this week.

A Saudi reset?

As a presidential candidate, Biden vowed to make oil-rich Saudi Arabia a "pariah" state over the 2018 murder of Saudi dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi – an operation U.S. intelligence agencies laterconcludedwas authorized by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also known as "MBS" and who effectively runs the Gulf nation.

Biden also pledged to "reassess" the traditionally close U.S.-Saudi alliance, amidcalls from families of Sept. 11 attack victimsto hold the kingdom "accountable" for links to the hijackers behind the terror attacks – and a push from within his own party to pressure Saudi Arabia to end its intervention in Yemen's civil war, which according to the United Nations has led to one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world.

Since taking office, Biden has spoken twice with King Salman, the crown prince's father, who officially rules the country.

But he had also dispatched Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to serve as his administration's point of contact with the crown prince, in what was widely perceived as a snub to the powerful Saudi leader.

Relations between the two countries reached a low point last spring when the Wall Street Journalreportedthat Prince Mohammed and his Emirati counterpart declined to schedule a phone call with Biden over frustrations with U.S. policy in the region. (The White House at the time told reporters there were "no rebuffed calls.")

On Saturday, Biden plans to attend a summit of Arab leaders in Jeddah, a meeting that the crown prince will also attend, though it's not yet clear how the two leaders will interact or engage.

The White House has said that Prince Mohammed is expected to attend a bilateral meeting Biden will hold with King Salman and the king's "leadership team" on Friday. But U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Monday declined to say if the public would see Biden and the crown prince shake hands.

Oil, Ukraine force Biden's hand, experts say

Several experts told ABC News the rapprochement between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia was inevitable, given the kingdom's influence in the region – and its status as one of the world's largest oil producers at a time when gas prices have skyrocketed and the West has attempted to boycott Russian oil.

"Without the Ukraine war, there would be a lot less focus [on Saudi Arabia]. There's no question about it," Dr. Gregory Gause, a Saudi Arabia expert and head of Department of International Affairs at The George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University, told ABC News.

Biden has defended his approach, writing inan op-ed for The Washington Postpublished Saturday that "my aim was to reorient — but not rupture — relations with a country that's been a strategic partner for 80 years."

"As president, it is my job to keep our country strong and secure," he wrote. "We have to counter Russia's aggression, put ourselves in the best possible position to outcompete China, and work for greater stability in a consequential region of the world.

"To do these things," he continued, "we have to engage directly with countries that can impact those outcomes. Saudi Arabia is one of them, and when I meet with Saudi leaders on Friday, my aim will be to strengthen a strategic partnership going forward that's based on mutual interests and responsibilities, while also holding true to fundamental American values."

Will the Saudi visit itself lower gas prices? Probably not, experts say

Biden plans to attend a summit of leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council, a union of Arab states, who will also be joined by the leaders from Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan; the grouping is being referred to as the "GCC+3."

Sullivan said Monday the White House believes the oil-producing Gulf states have "a capacity for further steps that could be taken" to increase oil output, although he would not say if Biden planned to ask Saudi Arabia and the other countries to raise production by a certain amount.

Experts have told ABC News that it is not clear that Saudi Arabia could really do much to impact gas prices in the U.S., which have already started dropping in recent weeks – as demand falls off – from record $5 per gallon averages.

"There are things the Saudis can do," Gause, the expert on Saudi Arabia, said. "But I don't think that even if they really opened the spigots, it would bring prices down to, you know, where they were… in the midst of COVID."

Amy Meyers Jaffe, the managing director of the Climate Policy Lab at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, said it's most important to ensure "that the supply that's already in the market stays in the market."

"Part of that is engaging with the producers of the Middle East, because it's not clear to me how much more they can all produce," she told ABC News.

In fact, French President Emmanuel Macron wasreportedlyoverheardlast month telling Biden that the United Arab Emirates was already at "maximum" production capacity, and that the Saudis could only increase output by a relatively small 150,000 barrels per day in the short term.

A new Middle East?

When Biden first visited Israel nearly 50 years ago, the country was at war with much of the Arab world.

Now, following several peace agreements brokered by the Trump administration known as the Abraham Accords, Israel has diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco – in addition to existing peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt.

Israel, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states share a mutual enemy in Iran: Israel considers Iran's nuclear program an existential threat, while the country's ballistic missiles and regional proxies have targeted Saudi and Emirati oil infrastructure.

While a major diplomatic breakthrough isn't expected on this trip, Biden's visit could help move Saudi Arabia and Israel toward normalized relations and greater coordination on regional security – at a time when renewed negotiations to limit Iran's nuclear program have stalled.

"The region is watching to see how far the Saudis are willing to go," Jacob Walles, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served as U.S. ambassador to Tunisia, told ABC News.

Walles said that while Saudi Arabia's crown prince has signaled support for inching closer to Israel, significant diplomatic progress could take time, given Saudi public opinion and opposition to Israel.

The 86-year-old King Salman would also likely "limit" any breakthrough with Israel absent progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which has traditionally been a sticking point in relations between Israel and its neighbors, Walles said.

In hisWashington Post op-ed, Biden noted that he will be the first U.S. president to fly from Israel to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, describing it as a "small symbol" of the deepening ties between Israel and the Arab world.

"The Israelis believe it's really important that I make the trip," Bidentold reportersat a press conference last month.

Walking a fine line on human rights

As Biden pursues rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and a strong relationship with Israel, he must balance economic and security interests with human rights concerns.

The U.S. has walked a fine line in the wake of the death of Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, a well known Al Jazeera correspondent killed in May while covering an Israeli military raid in the occupied West Bank.

During her funeral, Israeli police beat mourners and pallbearers -- drawing widespread, global condemnation.

The State Department said on July 4 that after reviewing U.S. and Palestinian investigations into Abu Akleh's death, it found that Israeli military gunfire likely killed her -- but that it "found no reason to believe that this was intentional but rather the result of tragic circumstances."

Asked if Biden planned to press Israeli officials on the case during his visit, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that "we want to see accountability."

But Abu Akleh's brother wrote in a letter to Biden late last week that "your administration's engagement has served to whitewash Shireen's killing and perpetuate impunity,"Reuters reported. He asked for Biden to meet with his family while in the region.

Meanwhile, Khashoggi's 2018 murder was the reason Biden pledged to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah," but the White House has repeatedly declined to say whether the president will even bring it up with the crown prince when he meets with him.

Biden constantly argues that the world is at an inflection point between democracy and autocracy, and his trip to Saudi Arabia shows that democracies may feel forced to kowtow to autocratic nations when economic and security interests are at stake.

"For an American president to go to [Saudi Arabia] is very, very humiliating," Hossein Askari, an economist and Professor Emeritus of International Business and International Affairs at George Washington University, told ABC News.

"Maybe the American people don't see that," he continued. "But in the eyes of dictators around the world, and in the eyes of the Middle East, people will be laughing."

What about the peace process?

The Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab nations are one of the few foreign policies pursued by President Donald Trump that Biden has praised.

But the agreements cast aside longstanding doctrine that elevated the Palestinian issue in any normalization talks with Israel, cutting the Palestinians themselves out of talks – although the Arab nations did seek concessions from Israel favorable to the Palestinians.

Experts do not expect any breakthroughs in Israeli-Palestinian relations this week – nor has the Biden administration telegraphed any expected developments.

There have been, though, reports of discussions over Saudi Arabia allowing Israeli planes tofly over its territory– and U.S.-backed diplomacy aimed at a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/06/29/israel-saudi-arabia-egypt-red-sea-deal-normalization">resolving an international dispute over islands in the Red Sea.

And the Biden administration has reversed several Trump policies that downgraded the U.S. relationship with the Palestinians – such as resuming funding for a U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees – although he has not delivered on a promise to reopen an American consulate in Jerusalem for Palestinians that Trump closed. Other Palestinian desires – reopening an office in Washington and resolving other funding issues – are subject to congressional action that has not materialized, according to Michael Koplow, the chief policy officer of Israel Policy Forum.

Yemen war a major focus

Yemen's civil war has paused for the last four months as the result of a negotiated truce.

It's the longest ceasefire in the nearly eight-year war that caused what the United Nations has labeled the worst humanitarian crisis in the world.

Saudi Arabia has led a coalition that has backed Yemen's government in its fight against a rebel group called the Houthis, who are backed by Iran. The U.S. has supported Saudi Arabia's involvement, which has relied heavily on airstrikes.

Biden had ended offensive weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, though, over its handling of the war. While Sullivan told ABC News Monday that that ban would remain for now, the White House has in recent weeks praised Prince Mohammed's role in bringing about the ongoing ceasefire.

White House officials have said the war in Yemen will be a major focus for Biden while he visits Saudi Arabia.