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皮特·巴蒂吉在第六次民主党初选辩论中“利害攸关”

2019-12-20 10:33   美国新闻网   - 

七名候选人将于周四晚上在洛杉矶登上第六次民主党初选辩论的舞台,届时唐纳德·特朗普总统的弹劾将主导全国对话。

舞台上候选人的领域美国公共广播公司新闻小时/政治辩论从晚上8点开始,东部时间将是民主党开始竞选白宫以来最小的一次。今年6月辩论开始时,大约有20名候选人在两个晚上争夺最高职位。

为了有资格参加周四晚上的辩论,候选人被要求在合格的投票中以6%的投票率进行两次投票,或者在提前投票的州或全国调查中以4%的投票率进行四次投票。他们还需要从200,000名独特的捐助者那里获得捐赠。

今晚摊牌的参与者是:

  • 前副总统乔·拜登

  • 马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦

  • 佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯

  • 南本德市市长皮特·巴蒂吉格

  • Amy Klobuchar参议员

  • 企业家杨安泽

  • 亿万富翁汤姆·施泰尔。

夏威夷众议员图西·加巴德、前纽约市长迈克尔·布隆伯格和新泽西参议员科里·布克是之前电视辩论中最大的人物之一,但这次没有成功。

2019年11月20日,佐治亚州亚特兰大市,民主党总统候选人在泰勒·佩里工作室参加民主党总统辩论。

新闻周刊在今晚关于他们期望的辩论之前,我和三位战略家谈过了。这里有五件事要注意:

1.但是受到攻击

据报道,印第安纳州南本德市市长将参加今晚的辩论,因为自11月底以来,他的全国民调表现略有下降“真正清晰的政治”平均。

但是他仍然被认为是爱荷华州民主党选民中的领先者,在新罕布什尔州紧随其后,新罕布什尔州是前四个州中挑选他们喜欢的提名者的两个。

戈登集团首席执行官迈克尔·高顿告诉记者:“但是迪吉格会被指向他,因为他现在被认为是拜登最有可能的替代者。”新闻周刊。

这位前克林顿政府的工作人员后来变成了战略家,他补充道:“在许多方面,对他来说利害攸关,因为拜登处于杆位,而且他似乎在稳步保持这一地位,所以巴蒂吉需要做的是尽可能打破杆位。”

全国民主培训委员会的创始人凯利·迪特里希赞同戈登的观点,他说市长在“势头强劲”的时候不犯错误是很重要的

迪特里希补充道:“我不确定这对他和其他人一样重要。”。“但这仍然很重要。”

2019年11月20日,佐治亚州亚特兰大市,民主党总统候选人印第安纳州南本德市市长皮特·巴蒂吉在泰勒·佩里工作室举行的民主党总统辩论中发言。

2.弹劾被搁置

在众议院投票通过对特朗普总统阻挠国会和滥用权力的指控后,2019年的最后一场民主党辩论将在美国历史上第三次弹劾总统的阴影下进行。

但随着对特朗普弹劾案的民意调查显示,美国公众在这个问题上存在党派分歧,而且如果参议院审判将沃伦和桑德斯从竞选阵营中带走,他们都可能遭受损失,战略家们认为主导政治媒体的话题今晚应该靠边站。

迪特里希说:“我认为它会被边缘化一点,我认为它应该被边缘化一点。”。"每个人都知道在弹劾案中每个人作为民主党人的立场。"

他后来补充说,政党候选人面临的挑战是告诉选民他们将如何改善他们的生活。

戈登还表示,候选人最好不要对特朗普总统的弹劾纠缠太久。“我想我会建议候选人直接关注选民关心的问题,”他说。

3.辩论多样性

今晚在拥挤的民主党初选中,辩论阶段被缩减到只有七名候选人,杨安泽将是唯一站在摄像机前的候选人,科里·布克参议员和前住房部长朱利安·卡斯特罗缺席,卡马拉·哈里斯也在本月早些时候退出竞选。

今晚舞台上缺乏多样性引发了对民主党全国委员会的失望,并导致所有七名合格候选人签署科里·布克的一封信敦促该机构主席汤姆·佩雷斯重新考虑参加辩论的要求。以下信息图由提供Statista,显示候选人如何有资格参加第六届民主党全国委员会辩论。

有资格参加第六次民主党辩论的候选人。

迪特里希和费尔德曼战略的创始人安德鲁·费尔德曼都预测,今天洛杉矶不太可能出现多样性的缺失。

但费尔德曼确实表示,这将是“周四辩论的阴云”,并补充道,“对我们党来说,这是一个挑战,因为我们是从历史上最多元化的领域开始这场运动的,而现在你并没有感觉到这一点在辩论阶段得到了准确的反映。”

4.乔·拜登与当选

候选人被认为的“可当选性”对走向2020年选举的倾向民主党的选民至关重要。投票到处这一年甚至显示出许多人更关心潜在候选人的候选资格,而不是他们是否喜欢他们或者是否同意政策。

戈登告诉记者:“我对该党的看法是,民主党选民希望关注能够击败特朗普的人,这种人能够平等地与该党的基层以及将于明年秋季做出决定的温和派选民说话。”新闻周刊。

定义“可当选”意味着什么事实证明令人担忧成为许多争议的焦点。无论“候选人”可能是什么,戈登相信拜登有很多优势,他今晚击败特朗普的能力可能会受到攻击。

“如果有人在这一点上攻击他,我可以预见会发生这种情况,他需要返回数据来支持他,”他说。“他不能从这一点上让步,输掉这场争论。我认为在许多方面这是他最好的论点。”

5.克洛布查尔和斯特耶尔寻找他们的时机

随着民主党初选投票的进行,亿万富翁斯特耶和明尼苏达州参议员克洛布查尔将是周四晚上民主党选民中排名最低的候选人。

费尔德曼告诉记者,如果施泰尔不“做点什么来表明他可以成为一个引人入胜的候选人”,他将“成为一个事后才想到的人”新闻周刊。

谈到克洛布查尔,他补充道:“她在上次辩论后筹集了100万美元,并有机会继续她的竞选活动所称的势头。

“她的人群在爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州显著增加,她打算继续这样做,并试图给在这场比赛中犹豫不决的人另一个选择。”

PETE BUTTIGIEG HAS 'HIGHEST STAKES' IN SIXTH DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY DEBATE, IMPORTANT HE DOESN'T SLIP UP: STRATEGISTS

Seven candidates will take to the stage in Los Angeles on Thursday night for the sixth Democratic Primary debate as President Donald Trump's impeachment dominates the national conversation.

The field of candidates on stage for the PBS NewsHour/Politico debate beginning at 8 p.m. ET will be the smallest since Democrats launched their bids for the White House. When debates began in June this year, some 20 candidates vied for top positions in the race across two nights.

In order to qualify for the Thursday night debate, candidates were required to have polled twice at 6 percent in eligible polls or four times at 4 percent in either early voting state or national surveys. They also needed to have received donations from 200,000 unique contributors.

Participants in the showdown tonight are:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden

  • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren

  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders

  • South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg

  • Sen. Amy Klobuchar

  • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang

  • Billionaire Tom Steyer.

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and the New Jersey senator Cory Booker are among the biggest names in previous TV debates that have failed to make the cut this time around.

Democratic presidential candidates participate in the Democratic Presidential Debate at Tyler Perry Studios November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia.

Newsweek spoke to three strategists ahead of tonight's debate about their expectations. Here are five things to watch out for:

1. Buttigieg under fire

The mayor of South Bend, Indiana will go into tonight's debate on the back of a slight dip in his national polling performance since the end of November, according to Real Clear Politics' average.

But he is still pegged as the frontrunner among Democrat voters in Iowa and a close second place in New Hampshire, two of the first four states to pick their favored nominees.

"Buttigieg will get some arrows pointed at him because he is now perceived as the most likely alternative to Biden," Group Gordon CEO Michael Gordon told Newsweek.

The former Clinton administration staffer turned strategist later added: "In many ways the stakes are highest for him, because Biden is in the pole position and he seems to be maintaining that steadily, so what Buttigieg needs to do is break into that pole position if he can."

Kelly Dietrich, founder of the National Democratic Training Committee, echoed Gordon's view, saying it was important for the mayor not to make mistakes while he has "momentum."

"I'm not sure this is a critical for him as some of the others," Dietrich added. "But it's still important."

Democratic presidential candidate South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg speaks during the Democratic Presidential Debate at Tyler Perry Studios November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia.

2. Impeachment sidelined

Following the full House vote to approve charges of obstruction of Congress and abuse of power against President Trump, the final Democratic debate of 2019 will take place in the shadow of the third presidential impeachment in U.S. history.

But with polling on Trump's impeachment showing the American public split along partisan lines on the issue, and frontrunners Warren and Sanders both likely to suffer should a Senate trial take them away from the campaign stump, strategists think the subject dominating political media should be sidelined tonight.

"I think it will be sidelined a bit and I think it should be sidelined a bit," Dietrich said. "Everyone knows where everyone stands as Democrats on impeachment."

He later added that the challenge facing party candidates was telling voters how they would make their lives better.

Gordon also said candidates would do better not to dwell on President Trump's impeachment for too long. "I think I would recommend that the candidates focus squarely on the issues that voters care about," he said.

3. Debate diversity

As the debate stage is whittled down to only seven prospective nominees in the crowded Democratic primary field tonight, Andrew Yang will be the only candidate of color stood in front of cameras, with Sen. Cory Booker and former Housing Secretary Julian Castro absent and Sen. Kamala Harris dropping out of the race earlier this month.

The lack of diversity on tonight's stage sparked frustration with the Democratic National Committee and led to all seven qualified candidates signing a letter by Cory Booker urging the body's chairman Tom Perez to reconsider requirements for entering debates. The infographic below, provided by Statista, shows how the candidates qualified for the sixth DNC debate.

Candidates that qualified for the sixth Democratic debate.

Both Dietrich and Andrew Feldman, the founder of Feldman Strategies, predicted it was unlikely that lack of diversity would be raised in Los Angeles today.

But Feldman did say it would be a "cloud over Thursday's debate," adding that it presented a "challenge for our party because we started this campaign with the most diverse field in history, and now you're not feeling that accurately reflected on the debate stage."

4. Joe Biden and electability

A candidate's perceived "electability" is of key importance to Democratic-leaning voters heading into the 2020 election. Polling throughout the year has even shown many care more about a would-be nominee's supposed electability than whether they like them or agree on policy.

"My sense of the party is that the Democratic electorate wants to focus on someone who can beat Trump, and that is someone who can speak equally to the base of the party as well as the moderate voters who will make the decision next fall," Gordon told Newsweek.

Defining what it means to be "electable" has proven fraught and become the subject of many disputes. Whatever "electability" might be, Gordon believes Biden has a lot of it and can expect to be attacked on his perceived ability to beat Trump tonight.

"If someone attacks him on that point, which I could see happening, he needs to go back to the data to back him up," he said. "He can't back down from the point and lose that argument. I think in many ways it's his best argument."

5. Klobuchar and Steyer seek their moment

As the Democratic primary poll of polls stands, the billionaire Steyer and Minnesota Sen. Klobuchar will be the lowest ranking candidates among Democrat voters on stage Thursday night.

If Steyer does not do "something to show that he can be an engaging candidate" he will "remain an afterthought," Feldman told Newsweek.

Speaking about Klobuchar, he added: "She raised a million dollars after the last debate and has an opportunity to continue what her campaign is calling momentum.

"Her crowds have significantly increased in Iowa and New Hampshire and she's going to look to continue that and try to give people who are undecided another option in this race."

 

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上一篇:佩洛西指责“死神”麦康奈尔拖延了数百项法案
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