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民调显示:特朗普的支持率在大会后停滞不前

2020-08-31 10:28   美国新闻网   - 

唐纳德·特朗普总统在共和党全国代表大会上,奥巴马以壮观的场面和白宫为背景,努力打造自己的号召力,并确定自己的对手,但这并没有明显影响选民对他和前副总统的印象乔·拜登,一项新的美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查发现。

特朗普为期一周的庆祝活动并没有提高他的支持率,即使在他自己的选民中也是如此,而且整个国家仍对他处理总统任期内的重大危机持广泛批评态度:新冠肺炎(新型冠状病毒肺炎)。

在总统第二次接受共和党提名后的几天里,不到三分之一(31%)的美国人对他有好感——对特朗普来说,这是一个停滞不前的现实。就在民主党全国代表大会之后,他的支持率在一周前的最后一次投票中为32%。

特朗普发现自己的处境与他的主要竞争对手大不相同。

在利用益普索的知识面板进行的新调查中,拜登的支持率仍然高于他的不利地位,为46%至40%,巩固了他自上周以来支持率的提高。上周,人们对民主党提名人的态度从他在大会前略显低调的位置上升至净正面。

拜登的支持率从2008年的40%上升到了2009年的40%8月13日的投票民主党全国代表大会后上升到45%。

在民主党人中,拜登的支持率也在他的大会后攀升了7个百分点,这表明他已经巩固了他的支持。但特朗普的支持率略有下降——在最新调查中,共和党支持率下降了4个百分点。

PHOTO: President Donald Trump and family members stand to watch fireworks after the president delivered his acceptance speech on the final day of the Republican National Convention from the South Lawn of the White House on Aug. 27, 2020, in Washington.

2020年8月27日,在共和党全国代表大会的最后一天,总统唐纳德·特朗普、第一夫人梅兰妮·特朗普和家人站在白宫南草坪观看烟火表演。

在共和党的集会上总统试图在几乎没有戴面具的听众面前描述他对病毒的反应,这是他的政府面临的最紧迫的问题。

然而,他的讲话似乎并没有改变人们对他处理美国经济的一贯不满冠状病毒大流行。绝大多数美国人(63%)不赞成特朗普对公共卫生危机的监管——这是自7月初以来的稳定趋势。

对他在新冠肺炎领导地位的支持率一直徘徊在30岁左右,追踪他的总体支持率。

关于美国面临的另一个危机——种族正义——包括特朗普在内的共和党人试图在整个上周的“法律与秩序”背景下,将围绕“黑人生命至关重要”运动的辩论和全国各地的抗议活动框定下来。他们很少提到乔治·弗洛伊德,那个在明尼阿波利斯被警察杀害引发了全国范围的示威游行,或者最近的枪击事件雅各布·布莱克他在威斯康星州的克诺沙被一名白人警察开枪打了七枪。

大多数美国人(62%)认为布莱克的事件是警察对待非裔美国人存在更广泛问题的一个标志,该事件导致他腰部以下瘫痪。但是这个数字并不像弗洛伊德被杀后74%的人说的那样明显。

这种下降趋势是由意识形态和种族群体的下降所驱动的,但在共和党人和美国白人中最为明显。美国广播公司新闻/益普索最近一次提出这个问题是在6月初,当时55%的共和党人和70%的白人认为弗洛伊德的死亡事件是一个更广泛的问题模式的标志。

现在,只有27%的共和党人和52%的白人这么说,分别下降了28和18个百分点。

综上所述,过去两周在面临支持率不足的现任候选人之间进行了一场大选,而民主党候选人的观点在大会期间已经反弹到积极的领域。

与特朗普相似,彭斯的支持率几乎没有变化,31%的人对他持肯定态度,而近一半的美国人(49%)对他持负面看法。共和党人的支持率也没有上升,大约70%的人在共和党大会前后对他评价良好。

拜登的副总统候选人、加州民主党参议员卡马拉·哈里斯的支持率稳步上升,43%的人在这次民意调查中给了她很高的评价,相比之下,上周为41%,民主党大会前为35%。超过三分之一(34%)的人对哈里斯持负面看法。

PHOTO: President Donald Trump arrives to deliver his acceptance speech for the Republican Party nomination for reelection during the final day of the Republican National Convention at the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Aug. 27, 2020.

2020年8月27日,在华盛顿白宫南草坪举行的共和党全国代表大会的最后一天,唐纳德·特朗普总统抵达发表他的共和党连任提名的接受演讲。

与民主党大会非常相似,近四分之三的美国人(72%)表示,他们在过去一周内很少或根本没有在电视或网络上观看共和党的重大活动。只有28%的人说他们至少看了一部分,与民主党人在虚拟集会上获得30%的支持率持平。

根据盖洛普的一项民意调查,2016年,大约三分之二的美国人(64%)表示,他们至少观看了一些共和党全国代表大会,当时特朗普在会场混乱的场景中首次接受了他的政党的提名。只有36%的人说他们看得很少或根本没有看。

盖洛普的问题不包括“在线”,不像美国广播公司新闻/益普索民意调查,后者试图抓住可能更广泛的观众。

尽管大多数人(53%)在大会上支持民主党的信息和节目,但只有37%的人对共和党的集会持相同看法。不到十分之六的美国人(59%)不赞成RNC。

全国只有34%的人认为今年的共和党大会在批评民主党和吹捧自己党的成就之间保持了正确的平衡,相比之下,45%的人认为民主党在大会后也是如此。

近三分之二的美国人(62%)认为共和党人花了太多时间批评他们的对手,相比之下,51%的人对民主党人持同样看法。

然而,根据盖洛普的一项民意调查,从历史上看,人们对共和党大会的态度基本上与2016年时一致,当时31%的人表示他们保持了正确的平衡,58%的人回应说共和党花了太多时间进行批评。
 

Trump's favorability and perceptions of COVID-19 response stagnate post-convention: POLL

President Donald Trump's efforts to build his appeal and define his opponent at the Republican National Convention, using pageantry and the White House as the backdrop, had little apparent impact on the electorate's impressions of both him and former Vice PresidentJoe Biden,a new ABC News/Ipsos pollfinds.

Trump's week of celebration did not improve his favorability, even among his own base, and the country still remains widely critical of his handling of the major crisis of his presidency:COVID-19.

Less than one-third (31%) of the country has a favorable view of the president in the days after he accepted the Republican nomination for the second time -- a stagnant reality for Trump. His favorability rating stood at 32% in the last poll, taken a week earlier, right after the Democratic National Convention.

Trump finds himself in a much different position than his chief rival.

In the new survey, which was conducted using Ipsos' KnowledgePanel, Biden's favorability remains higher than his unfavorability, 46% to 40%, solidifying his improvement in favorability from last week, when attitudes about the Democratic nominee improved to a net positive from his slightly underwater position prior to the convention.

Biden's favorability ticked up from 40% inan Aug. 13 pollto 45% just after the Democratic convention.

Among Democrats, too, Biden's favorability climbed seven points after his convention -- showing signs that he's solidified support among his base. But Trump's favorability dipped slightly -- by four points among Republicans in the newest survey.

President Donald Trump, first lady Melania Trump and family members stand to watch fireworks after the president delivered his acceptance speech during the final day of the Republican National Convention from the South Lawn of the White House on Aug. 27, 2020, in Washington.

At the GOP's gathering, the president sought to frame his response to the virus, the most pressing issue his administration faces, before a mostly mask-free audience.

His speech, however, appears to have done little to shift the consistent disapproval on his handling of thecoronaviruspandemic. A clear majority of Americans (63%) disapprove of Trump's oversight of the public health crisis -- a steady trend since early July.

Approval for his leadership on COVID-19 continues to hover in the low- to mid-30s, tracking his overall favorability rating.

Pertaining to the other crisis facing the nation -- racial justice -- Republicans, including Trump, sought to frame the debate over the Black Lives Matter movement and the protests across the nation in the context of "law and order" throughout the last week. They rarely mentioned George Floyd, the Black man who waskilled by police officers in Minneapolisand sparked nationwide demonstrations, or the more recent shooting ofJacob Blake, who was shot seven times by a white police officer in Kenosha, Wisconsin.

Most Americans (62%) view the incident with Blake, which has left him paralyzed from the waist down, as a sign of broader problems in the treatment of African Americans by police. But that number is not as stark as the 74% who said the same in the wake of the killing of Floyd.

The downward trend is driven by a decline across ideological and racial groups, but most sharply among Republicans and white Americans. The last time this question was posed by ABC News/Ipsos was in early June, when 55% of Republicans and 70% of whites said the fatal incident involving Floyd was a sign of a broader problematic pattern.

Now, only 27% of Republicans and 52% of whites say the same, a decrease of 28 and 18 points, respectively.

undefinedMORE: 4 people test positive for COVID-19 at GOP convention in Charlotte

Taken together, the last two weeks set up a general election between an incumbent ticket facing a favorability deficit, while views of the Democratic ticket have bounced into positive territory during the convention season.

Similar to Trump, Pence saw little movement in his favorable numbers, with 31% viewing him positively, while nearly half of Americans (49%) have an unfavorable view of him. Support among Republicans also didn't move, with roughly 7 in 10 perceiving him favorably before and after the Republican convention.

Biden's vice presidential nominee, Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., is steadily rising in her favorables, with 43% giving her strong marks in this poll, compared to 41% last week and 35% right before the Democratic convention. Just over one-third (34%) have a negative view of Harris.

President Donald Trump arrives to deliver his acceptance speech for the Republican Party nomination for reelection during the final day of the Republican National Convention at the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Aug. 27, 2020.

Much like the Democratic convention, nearly 3 in 4 Americans (72%) said they watched either very little or none of the GOP's marquee event on TV or online this past week. Only 28% said they watched at least some of it, on par with Democrats garnering 30% for their virtual gathering.

In 2016, about two-thirds of the country (64%) said they watched at least some of the Republican National Convention, when Trump first accepted his party's nomination amid chaotic scenes on the convention floor, according to a Gallup poll. Only 36% said they watched very little or none of it.

The question from Gallup did not include "online," unlike the ABC News/Ipsos poll, which sought to catch a possibly broader audience.

While a majority (53%) approved of Democrats' messaging and programming at their convention, only 37% said the same about the Republican gathering. Just under 6 in 10 Americans (59%) disapproved of the RNC.

Only 34% of the country felt that this year's GOP convention maintained the right balance between criticizing Democrats and touting their own party's achievements, compared to 45% who believed the same about the Democrats following their convention.

Almost 2 in 3 Americans (62%) felt that the Republicans spent too much time criticizing their opponents, compared to 51% who said the same about Democrats.

Historically, though, the attitudes about the Republican convention largely track with those from 2016, when 31% said they maintained the right balance, and 58% responded that the GOP spent too much time criticizing, according to a Gallup poll.

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