纽约——总统政治进展迅速。我们正在关注的是2020年竞选活动的新一周:
一般天数选举:64
第一次辩论的天数:29
——
叙事
大会终于结束了，2020年选举季节现在进入了它的最后阶段。
双方都对他们在大会上的表现感到满意，这些表现为美国选民提供了截然不同的现实。总统唐纳德·特朗普本质上是要求选民根据大流行前的美国来评判他。乔·拜登是要求选民根据实际存在的情况来判断责任，随着大流行的死亡人数上升，经济陷入困境，种族紧张关系再次爆发。
不过，双方都预计，拜登几乎主导了整个选举周期的选举，将进入到11月3日的9周冲刺阶段。出于对特朗普潜在势头的担忧，拜登计划在未来几天恢复面对面的竞选活动，尽管人群规模较小，社交距离较远。
这两位候选人本周都聚焦于威斯康辛州，在此之前发生了一系列暴力抗议活动，还有一次警方参与拍摄一名黑人男子的镜头。双方都认为这一事件提供了政治优势，可能没有更重要的摇摆州了。
——
重大问题
特朗普能无视现实吗?
如果你根据上周的共和党全国代表大会来判断美国的状况，你不会知道在过去的六个月里有超过180，000名美国人死于流感，还有数千万人失业。
除了一些明显的例外，总统对他领导下的美国生活描绘了一幅绝对乐观的画面。他和他的盟友说，对美国繁荣甚至安全的唯一真正威胁是拜登今年秋天的胜利。
这一信息从根本上忽略了特朗普执政六个月以来的死亡和经济破坏。对于任何其他政治家来说，这都是一个极其艰难的推销。特朗普可能也是如此。但是特朗普没有表现出任何东西，如果不是他对公众聚光灯的控制和他的忠诚者对他的话的毫无疑问的信任的话。
民主党大选即将开始吗?
拜登团队中的许多人告诉我们，他们预计未来几天民调将会收紧。
他们坚称，鉴于选民的两极分化性质，他们一直预计拜登的领先优势会缩小。但这不太可能安抚焦虑的民主党人，他们迫切希望获得压倒性胜利，以挫败特朗普破坏选举公正性的努力。民主党人的紧迫感一直很高，但如果拜登的领先优势开始消失，这种紧迫感预计会成倍增加。
一场势均力敌的竞选也将考验民主党联盟的团结，这是一个由不同派别组成的联盟，这些派别彼此非常友好，有着共同的目标击败特朗普。如果事情开始走下坡路，指责几乎肯定会接踵而至。
谁赢了克诺沙?
白宫顾问凯利扬·康威上周告诉福克斯新闻，“混乱、无政府状态、破坏和暴力行为越多，对特朗普来说就越好。”
当拜登抓住她表面上对暴力的庆祝时，特朗普的竞选团队相信，他正在赢得即将到来的关于警察暴力的充满种族色彩的辩论。民主党人认为，席卷整个夏季的大规模内乱将有助于激发有色人种反对特朗普的热情。
政治考量要模糊得多。本周可能会有所澄清，因为预计两位候选人都将特别关注威斯康星州基诺沙的局势，该市已成为辩论的新焦点。
特朗普计划周二访问该地区，如果拜登将此列为优先事项，并且他恢复亲自竞选，我们也不会感到意外。
乔·拜登真的重回正轨了吗?
在特拉华州呆了近六个月之后，拜登计划在未来几天重返竞选活动。
尽管民主党人似乎很满足于让他们的提名人远离公众的视线，但共和党人却有些头晕。他们特别兴奋的是，拜登将明尼苏达州列为他将访问的一个州，这证明这位前副总统至少在民主党四年前支持的一个州进行了辩护。
目前还不清楚拜登的现场竞选会是什么样子，即使在初选的正常情况下，他也很难吸引大量的人群。几个州继续禁止大型室内集会。拜登的高级顾问安妮塔·邓恩告诉我们，不要期待上周特朗普的大会演讲中出现的那种大规模、不加掩饰的人群。
无论他去哪里，无论他的事件看起来像什么，曝光为这位77岁的政治家带来了巨大的风险和回报。
——
最后的想法
上周晚些时候，数千人聚集在国家广场庆祝马丁·路德·金“我有一个梦想”演讲57周年。
活动前夕，我们采访了马丁·路德·金三世，他告诉我们，他对共和党人在上周的大会上以他父亲的名义帮助特朗普竞选连任感到“难过”。
金把特朗普关于种族分裂的言论比作半个世纪前理查德·尼克松的言论:“这只是赤裸裸的种族主义。”"时钟的指针在倒退。"
——
“2020观察”每周一运行，提供2020年大选前一周的展望。
2020 Watch: Can Trump ignore reality as Election Day nears?
NEW YORK -- Presidential politics move fast. What we’re watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign:
Days to generalelection: 64
Days to first debate: 29
———
THE NARRATIVE
The conventions finally over, the 2020electionseason now enters its final phase.
Both sides are pleased with their convention performances which offered dramatically different versions of reality to the American electorate. PresidentDonald Trumpis essentially asking voters to judge him based on pre-pandemic America.Joe Bidenis asking voters to judge the incumbent on conditions as they actually exist, with the pandemic's death toll mounting, the economy struggling and racial tensions again exploding.
Still, both sides expect the election, which Biden has led for virtually the entire cycle, to tighten entering the nine-week sprint to Nov. 3. Reflecting concerns about potential Trump momentum, Biden plans to resume in-person campaigning in the coming days, albeit with smaller, socially distanced crowds.
Both candidates are focused on Wisconsin this week as a series of violent protests follow yet another police-involved shooting of a Black man caught on camera. Each side believes the incident offers a political advantage, and there may be no more important swing state.
———
THE BIG QUESTIONS
Can Trump ignore reality?
If you judged the state of America based on last week's Republican National Convention, you wouldn't know that more than 180,000 Americans have died because of the pandemic over the last six months and tens of millions more are out of work.
With some glaring exceptions, the president painted a decidedly optimistic picture of American life under his leadership. The only real threat to U.S. prosperity and even safety, he and his allies said, was a Biden victory this fall.
This message fundamentally ignores six months of death and economic destruction under Trump's watch. For any other politician, this would be an extremely tough sell. And it may be for Trump as well. But Trump has demonstrated nothing if not his command of the public spotlight and his loyalists' unquestioned faith in his word.
Is the Democratic freakout about to begin?
Multiple people on Biden's team tell us that they expect polls to tighten in the coming days.
They insist that they always expected Biden's lead to shrink, given the polarized nature of the electorate. But that's unlikely to calm anxious Democrats who desperately want a blowout victory to quash Trump's efforts to undermine the integrity of the election. Democrats' level of urgency has always been high, but expect it to increase exponentially if Biden's lead begins to evaporate.
A tightening race will also test the unity of the Democrats' coalition, a collection of disparate factions that have been remarkably nice to each other, bound in common cause to defeat Trump. Should things start to go south, the finger pointing will almost certainly follow.
Who is winning Kenosha?
White House counselor Kellyanne Conway last week told Fox News that “the more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is” for Trump.
While Biden seized on her apparent celebration of violence, Trump's campaign believes he is winning the racially charged debate over police brutality heading into the fall. Democrats believed that the sweeping civil unrest that has consumed the nation for much of the summer would help energize people of color against Trump this fall.
The political calculus is far more cloudy. This week may provide some clarity as both candidates are expected to pay particular attention to the situation in Kenosha, Wisconsin, which has emerged as the new epicenter of the debate.
Trump plans to visit the area on Tuesday, and we wouldn't be surprised if Biden made it a priority as well as he resumes in-person campaigning.
Is Joe Biden really getting back on the trail?
After spending nearly six months mostly keeping his head down in Delaware, Biden is planning to return to the campaign trail in the coming days.
While Democrats seemed quite content to have their nominee out of the public spotlight, Republicans are somewhat giddy. They're particularly excited that Biden has named Minnesota as one state he'll be visiting, which is evidence that the former vice president is on defense in at least one state Democrats carried four years ago.
It's unclear exactly what in-person campaigning will look like for Biden, who struggled to draw large crowds even under normal circumstances during the primaries. Several states continue to ban large indoor gatherings. And Biden senior adviser Anita Dunn tells us not to expect the same kind of large, unmasked crowds that showed up for Trump's convention speech last week.
Wherever he goes and whatever his events look like, the exposure offers significant risk and reward for the 77-year-old politician.
———
THE FINAL THOUGHT
Thousands of people crowded onto the National Mall late last week to celebrate the 57th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s “I have a dream” speech.
We spoke to Martin Luther King III on the eve of the event, and he told us he was “saddened” that Republicans during their convention last week evoked his father's name to help Trump's reelection bid.
King likened Trump's rhetoric on racial divisions to that of Richard Nixon a half-century ago: “It’s just straight racism,” King said. “The hands of the clock are going backwards.”
———
2020 Watch runs every Monday and provides a look at the week ahead in the 2020 election.
