亚利桑那州的潮流正在改变。这个州曾经是红宝石色，曾经是巴里·戈德华特和森的家乡约翰·麦凯恩，现在采用了紫色色调。全国各地的民主党人都感受到了唐纳德·特朗普总统在处理该问题上的低分所带来的势头冠状病毒流行病，亚利桑那州的左翼选民对未来感到乐观选举日。
专家说，亚利桑那州态度转变的原因有很多，但投票可能会落在马里科帕县——凤凰城和斯科茨代尔等地的所在地——及其多样化的人口。
“亚利桑那州的民主党确实受益于所有向该州的移民——从国内移民到正在发生的国际移民，”亚利桑那州大学专门研究政治身份的副教授萨马拉·克拉尔(Samara Klar)告诉美国广播公司新闻。
马里科帕县拥有近450万居民，占亚利桑那州人口的一半以上。特朗普在2016年仅以3个百分点的优势赢得该县，但从那以后，人口发生了巨大变化。
据皮尤研究中心称，2019年，马里科帕县是第四大增长整个国家的西班牙裔或拉丁裔人口。那些认同西班牙裔或拉丁裔的人几乎占了全县30%的该州西班牙裔的平均年龄是比现在低在许多人口超过100万西班牙裔居民的州。
民调显示共和党在大峡谷州的支持率下滑。今年，它是受冠状病毒影响最严重的州之一，有近5500人死亡，许多人批评共和党州长道格·杜西(Doug Ducey)过早重新开放该州。
根据一份报告，杜西的支持率在水下，为46%，选民对他们是否认为杜西在处理危机方面做得很好完全分裂蒙莫斯大学民意测验上周发布。
皮尤还报告说，由这种流行病引起的经济衰退对拉丁美洲人和西班牙人的打击尤其严重，因为失业率西班牙裔的失业率从2月份的4.8%上升到4月份的18.5%，6月份又回落到14.5%。
民主党人正在向马里科帕县和全州的选民游说，以支持民主党提名人乔·拜登和前宇航员马克·凯利，他们将在11月争夺杜西任命的共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利的席位。
2020年9月9日，亚利桑那州共和党参议员玛莎·麦克萨利(Martha McSally)在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦离开参议院时戴着防护面具。
凯利在民意调查中一直领先于麦克萨利，亚利桑那州的大多数可能选民在一个纽约时报/锡耶纳学院周五公布的民调显示，他们更愿意派一名民主党人去参议院。
拜登在重要战场的民调中一直超过特朗普，特朗普的支持率在50%左右，因为选民们正在努力应对这一流行病的政治和经济影响。
共和党人仍然与总统步调一致
尽管亚利桑那州的气氛正在改变——这可能表明共和党人可能正在失去温和派的支持——但特朗普政府仍坚持支持总统，以重振基础。
凤凰城的共和党战略家查克·库格林说:“政党结构选择的道路是加倍削减赤字。”。“消息传递没有变化。我把这归因于特朗普的影子。”
他说，这种支持让一些候选人在竞争中处于不利地位。
“大多数总统候选人允许他们的支持者表达分歧，甚至是微小的分歧，但对这位总统的任何批评都会引起他的愤怒，你就会成为这个国家的敌人，”他说。
尽管共和党候选人似乎在表面上有所下滑，但共和党选民登记率仍超过民主党，但民主党人持相反意见。
亚利桑那州人打破了今年初选的投票记录，36%的登记选民投了票。145万选民在今年的初选中进行了投票，共和党和民主党的分歧很大，52%的选民投了共和党的票，48%的选民投了民主党的票。
亚利桑那州共和党主席凯利·沃德(Kelli Ward)表示，该党并没有把他们的注册选民优势视为理所当然。
沃德说:“就在本周，我们迎来了总统，副总统，第二夫人卡伦·彭斯。”。“过去几天我们在亚利桑那州看到了伊万卡·特朗普，总统和本届政府为亚利桑那州做的比以往任何一届政府都多。我们知道他们关心我们的国家，他们的访问更是强化了这一点。”
沃德利用她的职位来扩大总统的信息。她在2019年赢得了自己的席位，此前她罢免了由当权派支持的尤马商人乔纳森·莱恩(Jonathan Lines)，后者于2017年开始担任主席。
她在选票上上下下推动共和党的竞选活动，并支持至少两个在网上转发或表达对卡农阴谋论兴趣的人。
丹尼尔·伍德正在与第三届国会地区民主党众议员鲁本·格里贾瓦竞选，他在推特上发布了QAnon的标签。在一个脸书帖子，他说他追随这个团体，“主要是因为追随它的大多数人希望美国摆脱腐败的政客，并相信把权力还给人民。”
他们的候选人资格在亚利桑那州共和党中得到强调网站。
联邦调查局认为该组织是国内的恐怖威胁。
“我对此一无所知，”当被问及卡农时，沃德说。“但我知道，作为亚利桑那州共和党的主席，我支持共和党人反对民主党人，他们想用激进的左翼政策摧毁我们的国家。”
根据库格林的说法，尽管这些边缘人并不代表该党的大多数，但选择沃德担任她的职位的全州共和党人往往是参与度最高的。
“出现在共和党选区委员会会议和民主党选区委员会会议上的人是积极分子，是该党的铁杆左派和右派。这是谁选举凯利沃德，”库格林说。"他们逐渐变得更加激进和民粹主义。"
库格林说，麦凯恩是最后一个试图将温和派拉进党内领导岗位的主要政党代表。
他说:“麦凯恩是最后一位参与招募工作的全州当选官员，这些工作旨在让更中间派的选区委员会成员重返竞选。”。
2010年8月24日，在凤凰城，参议员约翰·麦凯恩在赢得亚利桑那州初选后，在他的胜利党对一群支持者发表讲话。
丹·巴克是一名注册共和党人，他计划在11月为乔·拜登投票。该党的信息不再引起他的共鸣，他帮助发起了一个名为“亚利桑那州共和党人相信尊重他人”的行动委员会，该委员会致力于组织和招募选民为拜登投票，无论他们属于哪个政党。
巴克说:“我们的信息是，你必须包容，你必须能够伸出援手，以统一的方式治理我们的国家。”“这不是我们现任总统传达的信息。”
中间摇摆不定的选民展示了两党的理想扩张
在2018年参议院竞选中，当民主党参议员克里斯滕·西内马(Krysten Sinema)击败共和党参议员麦克萨利(McSally)，共和党州长杜西(Ducey)再次当选时，有近20万选民投票支持杜西和西内马，在两党之间平分秋色。
这些选民是民主党和共和党的理想选择，民主党人正在努力向温和派传递信息，争取让这个州变得忧郁。
“亚利桑那州一直有一个特立独行的品牌，”埃德·迪亚兹-马丁内斯，马里科帕民主党的传播主任，告诉美国广播公司。“在这种类型的国家中，我们不一定被一个政党所束缚。这也引起了当地民众和拉丁裔社区的共鸣。”
迪亚兹·马丁内斯(Diaz-Martinez)回忆了该州一些著名共和党人的行动，包括已故参议员麦凯恩(McCain)与总统的不稳定关系，以及前参议员杰夫·弗雷克(Jeff Flake)最近对拜登的支持，从而强调了该州最近的政治变化。
民主党已经审视了亚利桑那州对温和派候选人的亲和力，希望今年在提拔拜登和凯利时利用这一点对他们有利。
“事实上，亚利桑那州的民主党近年来一直试图表现出更加温和的立场，”克拉尔说。“马克·凯利认为自己是独立的，他已经独立多年了。因此，有趣的是，我认为是民主党人试图摆出更多中间派或温和派的形象。”
该州的民主党人可能正在竭尽全力吸引更多的选民站在他们一边，即使只是为了一次选举，但共和党人在该州历来占据优势。在西内马当选之前，亚利桑那州自20世纪80年代以来就没有向参议院派出过民主党人。
Klar说，尽管有这种优势，但让特朗普位居榜首——以及不懈支持他的一些含义——最终可能会在本选举季伤害该党。
“随着时间的推移，他真的失去了大量的支持。因此，是的，亚利桑那州将会有一些共和党人支持拜登，就像我们将在全国看到的那样，”她说。
“但更有可能的是，共和党目前面临的风险是，共和党人没有足够的热情邮寄选票去投票站，”她补充说。“他们只是打算放弃这次选举。”
Democrats in Arizona appealing to moderates as state’s demographics continue to change
The tide is changing in Arizona. A state that used to be ruby red, once home to Barry Goldwater and Sen.John McCain, has now adopted a purple hue. Democrats across the country are feeling the momentum from President Donald Trump's low marks on his handling of thecoronaviruspandemic, and left-wing voters in Arizona are feeling optimistic ahead ofElection Day.
There's a number of reasons for the shift in attitude in Arizona, experts say, but the vote will likely come down to Maricopa County -- home to Phoenix and Scottsdale, among others -- and the it's diverse population.
"The Democratic Party in Arizona really benefits from all the migration to the state -- from the domestic migration to the international migration that's occurring," Samara Klar, an associate professor at the University of Arizona, who specializes in political identities, told ABC News.
Maricopa County makes up more than half of Arizona's population with its nearly 4.5 million residents. Trump won the county by just three points in 2016, but since then, the population has undergone massive changes.
In 2019, according to Pew Research Center, Maricopa County was home to thefourth largest growingHispanic or Latino population in the entire country. Those who identify as Hispanic or Latino make up nearly30% of the county'spopulation, and the median age of Hispanics in the state islower than it isin many states where the population supersedes 1 million Hispanic residents.
Polling shows Republican favorability slipping in The Grand Canyon State. This year, it has been one of the hardest hit by coronavirus, with nearly 5,500 deaths, and many criticize Republican Gov. Doug Ducey for reopening the state too soon.
Ducey's favorability is underwater, at 46%, and voters are completely split on whether or not they believe Ducey has done a good job handling the crisis, according to aMonmouth University pollreleased last week.
Pew also reports that the economic downturn stemming from the pandemic has hit Latinos and Hispanics especially hard, as theunemployment ratefor Hispanics increased from 4.8% in February to 18.5% in April and dropped back to 14.5% in June.
Democrats are making their pitch to voters in Maricopa County, and across the state, to shore up support for Democratic nominee Joe Biden and former astronaut Mark Kelly, who is vying to unseat Ducey-appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally in November.
Senator Martha McSally, a Republican from Arizona, wears a protective mask as she leaves the Senate Floor at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., Sept. 9, 2020.
Kelly consistently leads McSally in polling, and a majority of Arizona's likely voters in aNew York Times/ Siena Collegepoll released Friday said they would prefer to send a Democrat to the Senate.
Biden is consistently outpacing Trump in polls of the consequential battleground, and Trump's approval rating is in the mid-50% range as voters grapple with the political and economic ramifications of the pandemic.
Republicans remain in lockstep with the president
Despite the changing atmosphere in Arizona -- which could suggest Republicans may be losing support from moderates -- the Trump administration is sticking by the president's side to energize the base.
"The path that the party structure has chosen to take is to double down on red," Phoenix-based GOP strategist Chuck Coughlin said. "There isn't a messaging change. And I attribute that to the shadow of Trump."
That backing has some candidates in competitive races up against a wall, he said.
"Most presidential candidates permit their supporters to articulate differences, even minor differences, but any criticism of this president raises his ire and you become an enemy of the state," he said.
Though Republican candidates appear to be slipping on the surface, Republican voter registration is still outpacing that of Democrats, but Democrats argue the opposite.
Arizonans broke turnout records in this year's primary, with 36% of registered voters casting a ballot. 1.45 million voters returned a ballot in the primary this year, and the GOP and Democratic split was tight, with 52% of voters casting GOP ballots and 48% casting Democratic ballots.
Kelli Ward, the chairwoman of the Arizona GOP, said the party isn't taking their registered voter advantage for granted.
"Just this week we had the president, we had the vice president, we've got Karen Pence, the second lady," Ward said. "We saw Ivanka Trump here in Arizona over the last few days, and the president and this administration have done more for Arizona than any previous administration. We know that they care about our state and their visits just reinforced that."
Ward has used her position to amplify the president's message. She won her seat in 2019 after ousting establishment-backed Jonathan Lines, a Yuma businessman, who started his term as the chair in 2017.
She is boosting the campaigns of Republicans up and down the ballot, and is supporting at least two who have reposted or expressed interest online in the QAnon conspiracy theory.
Daniel Wood, who is running against 3rd Congressional District Democrat Rep. Ruben Grijalva, has posted tweets withQAnon's hashtags. In aFacebook post,he said he follows the group, "mainly for the reason that a very large majority of people who follow it want America free of corrupt politicians and believe in bringing power back to the people."
Their candidacies are highlighted on the Arizona GOP'swebsite.
The FBI deems the group a domestic terror threat.
"I don't know anything about that," Ward said when asked of QAnon. "But I do know that as the chairwoman of the Republican Party of Arizona, I support Republicans who are running against Democrats who want to destroy our nation with the radical leftist policies."
Though those fringes don't represent the majority of the party, the Republicans across the state who elected Ward to her post tend to be some of the most engaged, according to Coughlin.
"The people who show up at Republican precinct committee meetings and Democratic precinct committee meetings are the activists, are the hardcore left and right of the party. And that's who elects Kelli Ward," Coughlin said. "They've progressively becoming more activist and populist."
Coughlin said McCain was the last major party representative to try to pull moderates into leadership positions in the party.
"McCain was the last statewide elected official that engaged in recruitment efforts to bring precinct committeemen who were more centrist back into the game," he said.
Sen. John McCain speaks to a group of supporters at his victory party after winning Arizona's primary election, Aug. 24, 2010, in Phoenix.
Dan Barker is a registered Republican who plans to cast his ballot for Joe Biden in November. The message of the party isn't one that resonates with him any longer, and he helped start a PAC called "Arizona Republicans Who Believe in Treating Others with Respect," which works to organize and recruit voters to cast their ballots for Biden, regardless of their party.
"Our message is that you've got to be inclusive, you've got to be able to reach out to have a unifying approach to governing our country," Barker said. "That is not the message of our current president."
Swing voters in the center demonstrate ideal expansion for both parties
In the 2018 Senate race, when Democratic Sen. Krysten Sinema beat Sen. McSally and Republican Gov. Ducey was reelected, there were nearly 200,000 voters who voted for Ducey and Sinema, splitting their ticket between the parties.
Those voters are ideal pickups for both Democrats and the GOP, and Democrats are honing their messaging to moderates in the fight for turning the state blue.
"Arizona has always had a bit of a maverick brand to it," Edder Diaz-Martinez, the communications director for the Maricopa Democratic Party, told ABC. "This is the type of state where we're not necessarily tied down to a political party. And that's also resonating with folks on the ground, and Latino communities."
Diaz-Martinez highlighted the recent political change in the state by recalling the actions of some of its prominent Republicans, including the late Sen. McCain's rocky relationship with the president and former Sen. Jeff Flake's recent endorsement of Biden.
The Democratic Party has taken a look at Arizona's affinity for moderate candidates, hoping to use that to their advantage this year in promoting Biden and Kelly.
"It's really more of the Democratic Party in Arizona that has, in recent years, been trying to portray a more moderate stance," Klar said. "Mark Kelly identifies as an independent, he's been an independent for years. So interestingly, I think it's the Democrats who are trying to put forth more of a centrist or moderate image."
Democrats in the state may be fighting tooth and nail to pull more voters to their side of the aisle if only for one election, but Republicans historically have the advantage in the state. Before Sinema's election, Arizona hadn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since the 1980s.
Despite that advantage, having Trump at the top of the ticket -- and some of the implications of tirelessly supporting him -- could ultimately hurt the party this election season, Klar said.
"It's a state where he's really lost a huge amount of support over time. So yes, there will be some Republicans in Arizona who are supporting Biden, just as we'll see across the country," she said.
"But more likely the risks of the Republican Party right now are Republicans who just don't feel enough enthusiasm to mail in their ballot to show up at the polls," she added. "They're just gonna sort of throw their hands up and give up on this election."
