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在对阿富汗的广泛批评声中,拜登的支持率下降到44%

2021-09-05 07:32  ABC   - 

在美国广播公司新闻频道和《华盛顿邮报》的最新民意调查中,乔·拜登总统的工作支持率有所下降,因为人们普遍不赞成他对美国从阿富汗撤军的处理方式,其中包括对拜登上周撤军情况的部分指责毁灭性的喀布尔机场袭击。

总的来说,在近20年2万亿美元努力的可悲结局中,只有36%的美国人认为这场战争值得一战。77%的人支持美国撤军;症结在于拜登是如何处理的:60%的人不赞成。

在这场危机的冲击下,他在这次民意调查中的总体工作支持率由兰格研究协会,下降至44%,51%的人不赞成——自6月下旬以来,赞成率下降了6个百分点,不赞成率上升了9个百分点。强度已经明显变得负面:现在有更多的人强烈反对(42%),而不是强烈赞同(25%)。

完整的结果、图表和表格见PDF。

相当多的44%的人认为撤军让美国在恐怖主义面前变得不那么安全,而只有8%的人认为美国因此变得更安全。(其余看不出区别。)一个因素:近一半(46%)的人对美国能够识别并排除阿富汗难民队伍中可能的恐怖分子缺乏信心。

然而,另一个结果标志着不顾安全考虑的人道主义冲动:68%的人支持美国在阿富汗难民经过安全审查后接收他们,而27%的人反对。这远远超过了美国人在2015年对接受叙利亚和其他中东难民所表达的支持,为43%。

拜登和指责

只有26%的公众既支持美军撤军,也赞同拜登处理此事的方式。相反,69%的人表示批评:52%的人支持退出,但不赞成拜登如何处理,17%的人反对退出。

另一项措施只是问美国人是否赞成或不赞成拜登处理阿富汗局势的方式。在这一点上,30%的人同意,如前所述,60%的人不同意。

此外,53%的人表示,他对撤军的处理对上周造成13名美国军人和170多名阿富汗人死亡的自杀式爆炸袭击负有一定责任——38%的人对此负有很大责任,15%的人对此负有很大责任。

同意

拜登上台时,他对过渡的处理获得了67%的支持率,但这一支持率在4月份迅速下降到52%,在6月份大致稳定在50%,现在下降到44%。

在哈里·杜鲁门政府以来的民调数据中,目前只有两位总统的支持率低于他们的任期:唐纳德·特朗普,2017年8月为37%,杰拉尔德·福特,1975年3月也是37%。

拜登的总体支持率存在一些显著差距——女性比男性高18个百分点(53%对35%),种族和少数民族成员比白人高23个百分点(59%对36%),拥有研究生学位的成年人比没有大学学位的成年人高24个百分点(63%对39%),城市居民比农村居民高28个百分点(52%对24%);郊区是43%)。

自6月以来,拜登的支持率有所下降,尤其是在男性(下降10个百分点)、城市居民(下降10个百分点)、独立人士(下降9个百分点)、民主党人(下降8个百分点)和白人(下降6个百分点)中。在女性、郊区居民、共和党人以及少数种族或族裔中,这种情况基本上没有改变。

男性人数的下降反映出,他们更有可能将8月26日机场爆炸事件归咎于拜登对撤军的处理:62%的男性持这种观点,而女性为45%。

游击队员

政治分歧非常尖锐。拜登只有8%的支持率来自共和党,36%来自无党派人士,而民主党的支持率为86%。保守派占13%,温和派占53%,自由派占69%。

当具体谈到总统对阿富汗局势的处理时,他在民主党中的支持率急剧下降。在这里,他在自己的党内获得了56%的支持率,比他的整体工作表现低30个百分点。

党派分歧在另一项措施上有所平息:各政治派别的大多数人支持接受经过筛选的阿富汗难民——79%的民主党人、71%的无党派人士以及更少但仍占56%的共和党人。从意识形态来看,结果相似,80%的自由派、77%的温和派和58%的保守派支持接受难民。在受教育最少的成年人中,支持率最低,尽管仍占大多数——在高中以上学历的人中,支持率为54%。

方法学

这项美国广播公司新闻/华盛顿邮报的民意调查于2021年8月29日至9月1日以英语和西班牙语通过座机和手机进行,随机抽取了1006名成年人。结果有一个抽样误差范围3.5个百分点,包括设计效果。党派分歧是30-24-36%,民主党-共和党-无党派。

这项调查是由纽约兰格研究协会为美国广播公司新闻制作的,由马里兰州罗克维尔的Abt协会进行抽样和数据收集。查看调查方法的详细信息这里。
 

Biden’s job approval drops to 44% amid broad criticism on Afghanistan: POLL

President Joe Biden's job approval rating has fallen underwater in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll amid broad disapproval of his handling of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, including a share of blame on Biden for conditions leading to last week'sdevastating Kabul airport attack.

Overall, in a sad coda to the nearly 20-year, $2 trillion effort, just 36% of Americans say the war was worth fighting. There was 77% support for the United States withdrawing; the sticking point is how Biden handled it: 60% disapprove.

Slammed by the crisis, his overall job approval rating in this poll, produced for ABC byLanger Research Associates, is down to 44%, with 51% disapproving – down 6 percentage points in approval and up 9 in disapproval since late June. Intensity has moved decidedly negative: Many more now strongly disapprove, 42%, than strongly approve, 25%.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

A substantial 44% think the withdrawal left the United States less safe from terrorism, while only 8% think the country is safer as a result. (The rest see no difference.) One factor: nearly half, 46%, lack confidence that the United States can identify and keep out possible terrorists in the ranks of Afghan refugees.

Still, another result marks a humanitarian impulse despite that security concern: Sixty-eight percent support the United States taking in Afghan refugees after they've been screened for security, versus 27% opposed. That's far more support than Americans expressed for accepting Syrian and other Mideast refugees in 2015, 43%.

Biden and blame

Just 26% of the public both favors the withdrawal of U.S. forces and approves of how Biden handled it. Sixty-nine percent instead express criticism: 52% who support withdrawing but disapprove of how Biden handled it and 17% who oppose having withdrawn.

Another measure simply asks if Americans approve or disapprove of how Biden has handled the situation in Afghanistan. On this, 30% approve, with, as noted, 60% disapproving.

Further, 53% say his handling of the withdrawal bears some blame for the suicide bombing attack that killed 13 U.S. service members and more than 170 Afghans last week -- a great deal of blame, 38%, and a good amount, 15%.

Approval

Biden came into office with 67% approval for his handling of the transition, but that quickly subsided to 52% job approval in April, held roughly steady at 50% in June and is down to 44% now.

In polling data since the Harry Truman administration, only two presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their terms: Donald Trump, at 37% in August 2017, and Gerald Ford, also 37%, in March 1975.

There are some dramatic gaps in Biden's overall approval -- 18 points higher among women than men (53% to 35%), 23 points higher among members of racial and ethnic minority groups than whites (59% versus 36%), 24 points higher among adults with a post-graduate degree versus those without a college degree (63% versus 39%) and 28 points higher among urban residents versus those in rural areas (52% versus 24%; it's 43% in the suburbs).

In shifts since June, Biden's approval is down especially among men (down 10 points), urban residents (down 10), independents (down 9), Democrats (down 8) and slightly among whites (down 6). It's essentially unchanged among women, suburban residents, Republicans and racial or ethnic minorities.

The drop among men reflects their much higher likelihood of placing some blame for the Aug. 26 airport bombing on Biden's handling of the withdrawal: Sixty-two percent of men hold this view, compared with 45% of women.

Partisans

Political differences are very sharp. Biden has just 8% overall approval from Republicans, and 36% from independents, compared with 86% among Democrats. It's 13% among conservatives, 53% from moderates and 69% among liberals.

The president's rating drops especially steeply among Democrats when it comes specifically to his handling of the situation in Afghanistan. Here, he gets 56% approval within his own party, 30 points lower than for his job performance overall.

Partisan differences subside on another measure: Majorities across the political spectrum support accepting screened Afghan refugees -- 79% of Democrats, 71% of independents and, fewer, but still 56% of Republicans. Results are similar by ideology, with accepting refugees backed by 80% of liberals, 77% of moderates and 58% of conservatives. Support is lowest, albeit still a majority, among the least-educated adults -- 54% among those who haven't gone beyond high school.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Aug. 29-Sept. 1, 2021, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults. Results have amargin of sampling errorof 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 30-24-36%, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey's methodologyhere.

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