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共和党人玩债务限制边缘政策,美国面临违约

2021-10-08 07:15  ABC   - 

随着美国走向违约,共和党人准备挫败民主党暂停联邦借款限额的努力。

参议院的共和党人正在阻挠众议院通过的一项将债务限额暂停至2022年12月的措施。至少需要10名共和党人加入所有参议院民主党人的行列,才能打破共和党的阻挠,让简单多数票通过该法案。

民主党人辩称,这将给共和党人他们所要求的:提高仅由民主党人批准的国家借款限额。

“明天的投票不是提高债务上限的投票。相反,这是让民主党自己提高债务上限的程序性步骤,”参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默周二表示。“我们告诉共和党人,我们不是要求你们投赞成票,只是让我们投赞成票。”

但是共和党人没有退缩。几个月来,他们一直坚持认为,民主党人必须自己采取行动提高联邦债务限额,因为他们完全控制了华盛顿,并计划在共和党人零投入的情况下通过一项数万亿美元的社会和经济一揽子计划。

参议院共和党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)周二向记者坚称:“他们说,他们完全准备好自己做这项工作。“要做到这一点,最简单的方法是通过我指出的两个月的和解过程。”

麦康奈尔,R-Ky。曾多次表示,民主党人应该不得不提高债务限额,以支付乔·拜登总统议程中尚未通过的部分可能数万亿美元的成本,尽管债务限额必须提高,以涵盖特朗普政府在统一的共和党支持下已经发生的支出。

政府立法机关林赛·格雷厄姆共和党全国委员会周二告诉美国广播公司新闻,他不支持投票表决。

“我们不会授权激进的社会主义游行,”预算委员会的共和党高层格雷厄姆说。

参议院预算委员会主席伯尼·桑德斯提出了一个潜在的解决方案,包括暂时中止众议院的阻挠议事规则,该规则要求大多数立法获得60票。

“归根结底,至少在债务上限问题上,我们应该停止阻挠议事...并以51票通过,”桑德斯建议道。

但50名成员的民主党核心小组必须保持团结才能做到这一点,西弗吉尼亚州的温和派参议员乔·曼钦和亚利桑那州的参议员基尔斯顿·西内马都拒绝对阻挠议事规则进行任何修改。

目前还没有共和党人公开表示,他或她准备加入民主党,为周三就债务限额进行最终投票扫清道路,尽管温和派参议员莉萨·穆尔科斯基为可能加入多数派敞开了大门。

穆尔科斯基说:“我想确保我们正在尽一切努力不让我们陷入违约的境地,我甚至不想靠近。“我们必须确定。我们只需要确保。”

8月1日,美国从技术上达到了债务上限,财政部使用非常措施来支付美国的账单。但财政部长珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)表示,到10月18日,她的部门的努力将会完全用尽,违约几乎是肯定的。

随着党派僵局的出现,压力越来越大,没有后备计划出现。

麦康奈尔和他的会议坚持要求民主党人使用一种称为和解的快速预算工具,允许大多数人打破阻挠议案通过某些立法。使用这种晦涩难懂的程序很麻烦,可能需要几周的时间,并让民主党面临一系列潜在的政治痛苦投票。

但是,坚持使用这一程序可能会给共和党带来额外的政治利益。这将使民主党人公开将债务上限提高一大笔美元,而周三的投票——只是暂停债务上限,但没有规定具体数额——则没有。这将助长共和党的说法,即民主党是失控的支出者。

“我们对具体的美元金额非常感兴趣,”研发总监迈克·查维斯(Mike Rounds)周二表示。“他们将不得不来到美国人民面前,说‘我们将把债务上限提高X个数量,因为这是我们打算支出的数量’,无论如何,这将把他们的支出提议记录在案。”

一些民主党人表示,如果和解意味着迅速解决债务限额问题,他们将支持和解。曼钦说,应该考虑这一过程,康涅狄格州参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔(Richard Blumenthal)在被问及是否应该考虑快速预算工具时告诉记者,“一切都应该摆在桌面上”。

但一天天过去,限制了民主党人通过多步程序快速提高债务上限直至最终通过的时间,民主党人告诉美国广播公司新闻,和解进程还没有开始,即使是在幕后。

“不,目前没有,”桑德斯告诉美国广播公司新闻。

一些民主党人更加强调。

“和解从来没有摆在桌面上,”马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦说。“没有足够的时间让和解发挥作用。”

但在周二,舒默没有明确排除这种可能性。

当被问及是否排除使用预算程序时,舒默反复提到周三的投票是提高债务上限的首选方式。

“和解是一个漫长而复杂的过程。我们已经展示了最好的方法。我们正朝着这个方向前进,”舒默说,拒绝考虑b计划

如果国家违约,结果肯定是灾难性的。白宫警告称,史无前例的违约可能会对全球经济造成冲击,并引发衰退。这对两党的政治影响尚不清楚。
 

As Republicans play debt limit brinkmanship, nation barrels toward default

As the nation barrels toward default, Republicans are poised to sink a Democratic effort to suspend the federal borrowing limit.

Republicans in the Senate are filibustering a House-passed measure that would suspend the debt limit until December 2022. At least 10 Republicans would need to join all Senate Democrats to break a GOP filibuster and allow a simple majority vote to pass the bill.

Democrats argue that this would give Republicans exactly what they're asking for: an increase to the nation’s borrowing limit approved solely by Democrats.

"Tomorrow's vote is not a vote to raise the debt ceiling. It's, rather, a procedural step to let Democrats raise the debt ceiling on our own," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Tuesday. "We're telling Republicans that we're not asking you to vote for it, just let us vote for it."

But Republicans aren't backing down. They've maintained for months that Democrats must act to raise the federal debt limit on their own, because they have total control of Washington and are planning to pass a multi-trillion social and economic package with zero input from Republicans.

"They said they're perfectly prepared to do the job themselves," Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell insisted to reporters Tuesday. "The easiest way to do that is through the reconciliation process as I pointed out for two months."

McConnell, R-Ky., has said repeatedly that Democrats should have to hike the debt limit to cover the cost of potentially trillions in yet-passed parts of President Joe Biden's agenda, though the debt limit must be raised to cover spending that already took place under the Trump administration with unified GOP support.

Sen.Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told ABC News on Tuesday he won't support moving forward on a vote.

"We are not going to empower a radical march toward socialism," Graham, the top Republican on the Budget Committee, said.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, the Senate budget committee chairman, floated a potential solution that would involve temporarily suspending the chamber’s filibuster rules that require 60 votes for most legislation.

"Where it may come down to is a demand that at least for the debt ceiling that we end the filibuster ... and pass it with 51 votes," Sanders suggested.

But the 50-member Democratic caucus would have to remain unified to do this, and both moderates Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema have balked at any changes to the filibuster rules.

No Republican has yet gone on the record to say he or she is prepared to join Democrats to clear the way for a final vote on the debt limit Wednesday, though moderate Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, opened the door to potentially joining the majority.

"I want to make sure we are doing everything that we can to not send us into a situation of default, and I don't even want to get close," Murkowski said. "We have to make sure. We just have to ensure."

The nation technically hit the debt ceiling Aug. 1, with the Treasury Department using extraordinary measures to pay the nation’s bills. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that by Oct. 18, her department’s efforts would be fully exhausted and default would be all but certain.

Pressure is mounting alongside partisan gridlock, with no backup plan emerging.

McConnell and his conference are insisting that Democrats use a fast-track budget tool called reconciliation that allows the majority to break a filibuster to pass certain legislation. Use of this arcane process is cumbersome, could take weeks and opens up Democrats to a series of potentially politically painful votes.

But there could be an added political benefit for Republicans in insisting that this process be used. It would put Democrats on the record raising the debt ceiling by a hefty dollar amount, whereas Wednesday's vote -- simply suspending the debt limit by no specified amount -- does not. That would feed into the GOP narrative that Democrats are out-of-control spenders.

"We're very interested in a specific dollar amount," Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., said Tuesday. "They're going to have to come before the American people and say, 'We're going to increase the debt ceiling by X amount, because this is the amount we intend to spend', and one way or another, it puts them on the record as to their spending proposals."

Some Democrats say they'd support using reconciliation if it meant a swift resolution of the debt limit issue. Manchin said the process should be considered, and Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut told reporters that "everything should be on the table" when pressed on whether the fast-track budget tool should be considered.

But each passing day limits the time Democrats would have to fast track a debt ceiling increase through the multi-step process to final passage, and Democrats tell ABC News that no work has begun on the reconciliation process, even behind the scenes.

"No, not at the moment," Sanders told ABC News.

Some Democrats were more emphatic.

"Reconciliation was never on the table," Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren said. "There's not enough time to make reconciliation work."

But on Tuesday, Schumer did not expressly rule it out.

When asked if he was ruling out using the budget process, Schumer repeatedly referenced the Wednesday vote as the preferred way to go about hiking the debt cap.

"Reconciliation is a drawn out, convoluted process. We've shown the best way to go. We're moving forward in that direction," Schumer said, refusing to entertain a Plan B.

If the nation defaults, the results are sure to be catastrophic. The White House has warned that an unprecedented default could send shockwaves through the global economy and trigger a recession. The political implications for both parties are unclear.

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