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特朗普忽略了原本可以阻止俄罗斯的叙利亚退出选项

2019-10-17 15:25   美国新闻网   - 

一名国家安全委员会官员告诉记者,在唐纳德·特朗普总统决定离开叙利亚的前几周,他的国家安全委员会工作人员一直在准备并提出各种有序撤军计划新闻周刊。目标是避免一场填补美国突然退出所打开的权力真空的暴力热潮。特朗普完全放弃了这些计划,转而支持在与土耳其总统通话后立即撤退。在做出决定的几天内,美国军队将战略阵地移交给俄罗斯军队。

这一决定还为叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德政府(俄罗斯和伊朗的盟友)和美国支持的叙利亚民主力量(叙利亚民主力量)之间的协议奠定了基础。叙利亚民主力量主要是库尔德民兵组织,与伊斯兰国激进组织(通常被称为伊斯兰国)作战,现在面临土耳其和叙利亚反对派盟友的愤怒。在曾在多个政府任职的美国高级政策制定者、军事官员和职业专业人士中,特朗普坚持废除旨在防止这种情况发生的计划所带来的混乱损害了士气。

“放弃近五年的盟军训练和发展,并把它包装成礼物送给俄罗斯人和阿萨德,对我们的士气是毁灭性的,”国家安全委员会官员说,他直接了解美国从叙利亚北部撤离的努力。

这位官员说:“当你在军事上和外交上是这个星球上最强大的国家时,有太多不同的方法你无法达到同样的结果。”。

“如果你问为什么会有士气问题,”这位官员继续说,“那是因为国家安全委员会的人,他们在过去几年里在两个不同的政府部门工作,现在看到五年的工作在三天内被摧毁。”

这位官员补充称:“我们已经失去了在该地区的宝贵战略优势,并因抛弃库尔德人让土耳其人屠杀而玷污了我们在全球的声誉。”。"此外,我们没有任何回报."

 

syria war us military vehicles

2019年10月12日,美国军用车辆在叙利亚东北部哈塞克省农村塔尔巴达尔镇附近的公路上巡逻。唐纳德·特朗普总统选择退出北约盟友土耳其和库尔德人领导的部队之间的战斗,这两个伙伴在美国支持的打击伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国的战斗中至关重要。

对许多人来说更令人沮丧新闻周刊他说,叙利亚撤军本身就是这样进行的,总统无视顾问寻求仓促撤军。特朗普发誓要结束美国的“无休止的战争”,但遭到了自己政府内部的反对。

国家安全委员会官员表示,特朗普的辩护团队“向总统提出了许多不同的选择,如何在6个月至1个月内从叙利亚撤军。”这位官员补充道:“总统说美国第一——但他不明白如何从战略上实现这一点。”

这位官员拒绝在特朗普与土耳其总统埃尔多安通话的大约一周至十天前向特朗普提供具体选项,但表示,这些选项包括“围绕向土耳其施加经济和外交压力,以维持安全缓冲区足够长的时间,让美国能够组建一支联合国维和部队来取代我们的部队”的计划

库尔德人是一个少数民族,他们的祖籍跨越四个现代国家——伊朗、伊拉克、叙利亚和土耳其,所有这些国家都有与政府有着复杂关系的分离主义运动。在谴责针对北约盟友土耳其长达数十年的叛乱的同时,美国此前支持邻国伊拉克的库尔德武装,事实证明,库尔德武装是推翻萨达姆·侯赛因政府的关键盟友,后来也参与了该国反伊斯兰国的战斗。

鉴于这段历史,许多美国军官与伊拉克库尔德人保持着广泛的联系,他们在巴格达的默许下建立了自己的半自治国家,现在对华盛顿很友好。尽管叙利亚库尔德人已经与大马士革达成协议,但一些与政府结盟的人批评他们是叛徒,因为他们站在非法进入叙利亚并试图推翻阿萨德的外国势力一边。

“总统对待一个30年的盟友就像解雇一名内阁成员一样,”亚利桑那州的民主党众议员鲁本·加列戈(Rueben Gallego)说,他是众议院军事委员会成员,曾在伊拉克当过海军新闻周刊。

他补充道:“国防部工作人员士气低落并不令我惊讶,有人已经被推迟了5倍,并夺走了这支军队的荣誉。”。“我们有曾为库尔德人服务的人,他在一条推文中抹去了这些。”

总统的方法导致了很深的混乱,这可能不会反映在官方声明中。加列戈警告说,政府“不能相信任何读数”,因为“总统周围的圈子里有很多支持者——女性和[支持者——男性,即使他们反对他,他们也允许记录反映出其他情况。”

“我不相信我收到的任何读数,”他告诉我新闻周刊。"例如,国防部对叙利亚撤军没有强烈反应."

如果[国防部长马克]埃斯珀符合这一点,他就不符合成为国防部长的条件。他不符合国防部的思维和战略思维。登记反对的参议员应该拒绝他的职位,”他补充说。

 

mark esper pentagon saudi arabia

国防部长马克·埃斯珀8月29日在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿五角大楼与沙特副国防部长哈里德·本·萨尔曼王子举行双边会谈时发表讲话。特朗普政府遭受了多次解雇和辞职,埃斯珀的前任詹姆斯·马丁斯(James Mattis)在总统此前于2018年12月宣布叙利亚撤军后不久辞职。

德国马歇尔基金会高级研究员、前俄罗斯、乌克兰和欧亚地区国防部副部长伊芙琳·法卡什说:“政策士气非常低落。”。“读数很长一段时间都不准确。所以当消息传出时,这对他们来说并不是什么新鲜事,他们已经在另一个宇宙生活了相当长一段时间。”

“他们已经在黑暗中生活了相当长的一段时间,当谈到光明时,这是令人不安的,”她补充说。

对这些官方记录的这种歪曲可能是非法的。

专门研究国家安全法和告密者权利的律师布拉德利·莫斯(Bradley Moss)告诉记者:“你描述的所谓行为,如果最终被证明是真的,将再次提醒我们,面对一位对遵守协议不感兴趣的总统,我们的整个历史文献保护体系是多么脆弱。”新闻周刊。

莫斯解释说:“总统记录法和联邦记录法等法律最终依赖政府官员的真诚努力来准确记录他们的工作并妥善保存。”。“这不仅是为了直接的政府目的——比如总统与外国领导人的通话记录,下属需要审查这些记录以执行总统的协议和指令——也是为了历史目的。”

“这最终是人民的工作,由我们选出的领导人来完成,以我们的名义所做的记录应该得到正确和准确的保存,”他补充说。

 

syria kurdish forces military troops manbij

10月15日,美国撤军后不久,叙利亚政府军士兵经过阿勒颇省北部北部城市曼比伊郊区的一个阵地时,一名身穿印有曼比伊军事委员会徽章的战士(左)站在旁边。在整个内战期间,这两个派别交替地相互战斗,但现在联合起来反对土耳其及其叛军盟友。

回到叙利亚,美国盟友突然觉得自己落在了后面。尽管官方记录是“故意撤军”,但美国军事阵地被匆忙放弃的场景却是从另一个来源出现的。俄罗斯记者奥列格·布洛欣周二共享录像军事基地,如同新闻周刊周一首次报道,被移交给位于曼比吉市的俄罗斯军队及其盟军。

布洛欣的视频展示了伪装帐篷和无线电天线杆、机动车道大门和表达对美国热爱的白板,以及特朗普的推特手柄和标签“同志们”

其他视频显示说俄语的人显然也在同一个地方,这些视频展示了打开的饮料和脏盘子、微波炉和装满可口可乐的饮料冷却器等电器,以及足球等各种个人用品和瑞典作家斯蒂格·拉森的复制品龙纹女孩。一个标志上装饰着对即将到来的俄罗斯人的侮辱。

与此同时,就在几英里之外,叙利亚库尔德人再次为自己的生命而战,这次是在大马士革和莫斯科的支持下,而不是在华盛顿的支持下。

这也是他们在推特上发现的,因为新闻周刊周六报道在一篇预测政府交易的文章中,给了他们很少的时间来改变忠诚和重组,正如一名库尔德情报官员所描述的那样新闻周刊作为“经济、政治和外交漩涡”

然而,人们并没有普遍感受到政府方法的不适。联系人新闻周刊一位高级政府官员说:“国家安全委员会的政策专家工作努力,士气高昂。”

 

syria war territory control map

据英国广播公司国际卫生系统马克特报道,一张地图显示截至10月7日叙利亚各派的领土控制。土耳其支持的叙利亚反政府武装已经越过边境,因为叙利亚政府军前来援助前美国支持的库尔德人领导的部队。

 

TRUMP IGNORED SYRIA EXIT OPTIONS THAT COULD HAVE KEPT RUSSIA AT BAY, NSC OFFICIAL SAYS

In the weeks leading up to President Donald Trump's decision to exit Syria, his National Security Council staff had been preparing and presenting a variety of plans for an orderly withdrawal, a National Security Council official told Newsweek. The goal was to avoid a violent rush to fill a power vacuum opened by a sudden U.S. exit. These plans were abandoned completely by Trump in favor of an immediate retreat after a call with his Turkish counterpart. Within days of the decision, U.S. troops were handing over strategic positions to Russian forces.

The decision also set the stage for a deal between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government, an ally of Russia and Iran, and the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, a mostly Kurdish militia that battled the Islamic State militant group, know commonly as ISIS, and now faced the wrath of Turkey and allied Syrian insurgents. Among senior U.S. policymakers, military officials and career professionals who have served in numerous administrations, the ensuing chaos of Trump's insistence on scrapping plans designed to prevent just that has damaged morale.

"Abandoning almost five years of training and development of an allied force, and gift-wrapping it for the Russians and Assad has been devastating to our morale," said the NSC official, who has direct knowledge of the U.S. evacuation efforts from northern Syria.

"When you are the strongest nation on the planet militarily and diplomatically, there are so many different ways you cannot achieve the same result," the official said.

"If you're asking why there is a morale problem," the official continued, "it is because of people in the NSC, working the region for the past several years across two different administrations, and are now seeing five years of work demolished inside three days."

"We have lost an invaluable strategic advantage in the region, and tarnished our reputation globally by abandoning the Kurds to be slaughtered by the Turks," the official added. "Furthermore, we gain nothing in return."

 

syria war us military vehicles

U.S. military vehicles are seen patrolling along a road near the town of Tal Baydar in the countryside of Syria's northeastern Al-Hasakeh province, October 12, 2019. President Donald Trump opted to withdraw from a fight between two partners, NATO ally Turkey and Kurdish-led forces that were crucial in the U.S.-backed fight against ISIS.

More upsetting to many of those Newsweek spoke to than the Syria withdrawal itself was the way in which it was conducted, with the president ignoring advisers to pursue a hasty exit. Trump has vowed to end America's "endless wars" but has faced opposition from inside his own administration.

The NSC official said that Trump's defense team had "presented the president with many different options on how to achieve withdrawal from Syria within anywhere from six months to one month." The official added: "The president says America first—but he doesn't understand how to make that happen strategically."

The official declined to provide the specific options proposed to Trump roughly a week to ten days before his call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but said they included plans "revolving around putting economic and diplomatic pressure on Turkey in order to maintain the security buffer zone long enough for the U.S. to work on a U.N. peacekeeping force replacing our forces."

The Kurds are an ethnic minority whose ancestral homelands span four modern-day nations—Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, all of which host separatist movements with complex ties to the government. While condemning a decades-long insurgency against NATO ally Turkey, the U.S. previously sided with Kurdish forces in neighboring Iraq, where they proved a key ally in overthrowing the government of Saddam Hussein and, later, were part of the anti-ISIS fight in that country as well.

Given this history, many U.S. military officials have maintained extensive connections to Iraqi Kurds, who have established their own semi-autonomous state with tacit approval from Baghdad, now friendly to Washington. Though Syria's Kurds have cut a deal with Damascus, they have been criticized by some aligned with the government as traitors for siding with a foreign power that entered the country illegally and attempted to overthrow Assad.

"The president is treating a 30-year ally like he's firing a cabinet member," Representative Rueben Gallego, a Democrat from Arizona who sits on the House Armed Services Committee and served as a Marine in Iraq, told Newsweek.

"It wouldn't surprise me morale is low among DoD staffers, somebody who has 5x deferment has come away and taken away the honor of this military," he added. "We have people who have served with the Kurds and he has wiped away that in one tweet."

The president's methods have led to deep confusion that may not be reflected in official statements. Gallego warned that "we can't trust any readouts" from the administration because "the circle around the president is many yes-women and [yes-]men, and even when they oppose him they are allowing the record to reflect otherwise."

"I don't trust any of the readouts I've received," he told Newsweek. "For example, that DoD didn't have a strong reaction to the Syria pullout."

If [Defense Secretary Mark] Esper was in line with this, he is not in line to be SecDef. He is not in line with DoD thinking and strategic thinking. The senators who are registering opposition should deny him his post," he added.

 

mark esper pentagon saudi arabia

Defense Secretary Mark Esper speaks during a bilateral meeting with Saudi Vice Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman at the Pentagon, August 29 in Arlington, Virginia. The Trump administration has suffered a number of dismissals and resignations, with Esper's predecessor, James Mattis, quitting shortly after the president previously announced a Syria pullout in December 2018.

"Policy morale is super low," Evelyn Farkas, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund and a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia. "The read-outs have not been accurate for quite a while. So when news broke it was nothing new to them they had been living in an alternative universe for quite some time."

"They have been living in the dark for quite some time now, and when it comes to light it's disturbing," she added.

Such distortions of these official records could be illegal.

"The alleged conduct you've described, if ultimately proven true, would serve as a fresh reminder of just how fragile our entire system of historical document preservation truly is when confronted with a president who is not interested in adhering to protocol," Bradley Moss, a lawyer who specializes in national security law and whistleblowers' rights, told Newsweek.

"Laws such as the Presidential Records Act and the Federal Records Act ultimately rely upon good faith efforts by government officials to accurately document their work and properly store it," Moss explained. "This is not only for immediate government purposes—such as notes of presidential calls with foreign leaders that subordinates need to review to implement the president's agreements and directives—but also for historical purposes."

"This is ultimately the work of the people being done by our elected leaders, and the records of what was done in our name are supposed to be correctly and accurately preserved," he added.

 

syria kurdish forces military troops manbij

A fighter (L) wearing a military uniform bearing the insignia of the Manbij Military Council (MMC), affiliated with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, stands by as Syrian government soldiers walk past at a position on the outskirts of the northern city of Manbij in the north of Aleppo province, shortly after the U.S. withdrawal, October 15. The two factions have alternatively fought with and against one another throughout the civil war but were now united against Turkey and its rebel allies.

Back in Syria, U.S. allies felt suddenly left behind. Despite the official record of a "deliberate withdrawal," scenes of U.S. military positions that appeared hastily abandoned appeared from another source. Russian journalist Oleg Blokhin shared footage Tuesday of military sites that, asNewsweek first reported Monday, were handed over to the Russian military and its allied forces in the city of Manbij.

Blokhin's videos showed camouflage tents and radio masts, a motorized roadway gate and a whiteboard expressing love for the U.S., along with Trump's Twitter handle and the hashtag "#TheComrades."

Other videos featuring Russian-speakers apparently at the same location showed opened drinks and dirty dishes, appliances such as a microwave and beverage coolers stuffed with Coca Cola and various personal effects like footballs and a copy of Swedish author Stieg Larsson's The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. One sign was adorned with insults directed toward the incoming Russians.

Meanwhile, just miles away, Syria's Kurds were again fighting for their lives, this time with the support of Damascus and Moscow, not of Washington.

This was something they too found out from Twitter, as Newsweekreported Saturday in an article anticipating the government deal, giving them little time to shift allegiances and regroup amid what one Kurdish intelligence official described to Newsweek as an "economical, political and diplomatic whirlpool."

The malaise around the administration's methods was not universally felt, however. Contacted by Newsweek, one senior administration official said, "Policy professionals at the NSC are hard at work and morale is high."

 

syria war territory control map

A map shows territorial control in Syria by faction as of October 7, according to IHS Markit via BBC. Turkish-backed Syrian rebels have since made gains across the border as Syrian government troops came to the assistance of formerly U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces.

 

 

 

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