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特朗普袭击伊朗后,专家和官员对美国本土的担忧是什么

2025-06-23 09:41 -ABC  -  422746

  在唐纳德·特朗普总统对伊朗进行“大规模精确打击”后,该地区和国内的美国人都感到担忧。

  一个主要的担忧领域是伊朗国家行为者的网络攻击,包括针对银行系统或能源网络的攻击。

  国土安全部最近的一份公告警告说:“伊朗政府下属的网络行为者可能会在短期内优先考虑对以色列目标进行报复性攻击,但由于他们认为美国支持以色列的打击,他们可能会以美国网络为目标。”

  公告敦促国内关键基础设施实体“立即”评估并加强其安全性。根据非营利智库互联网安全中心(Center for Internet Security)的说法,此类攻击已经渗透到美国的供水和废水系统,该中心周五向执法部门做了简报。

  该中心还担心,在以色列军事打击之后,如果伊朗的能力下降,它可能会使用“粗暴或升级战术”或非正式网络。

  该组织称,“如果美国打击伊朗或公开向以色列空袭提供军事支持,此类袭击的可能性将会增加”。

  该中心评估称,伊朗庞大的代理团体网络或许能够打击美国在中东的利益,尽管他们打击美国本土的能力更加有限。

  他们估计,这些组织虽然不那么复杂,但仍可能扰乱公共基础设施和私营部门。

  除此之外,还有对外国公民或美国公民袭击美国的恐惧。

  2018年,国家反恐中心发布了一份报告,称伊朗支持或什叶派启发的-指的是在伊朗占主导地位的伊斯兰教两大分支之一-美国本土的恐怖活动不太可能发生,除非美国袭击伊朗。

  “鉴于持续的美伊双边紧张局势,这种催化剂的出现可能会相对迅速地引发什叶派HVE(本土暴力极端分子)的活动,突显出就HVE激进化的迹象与什叶派社区早期接触的好处。这种什叶派HVE暴力的潜在触发事件包括美国对伊朗的军事行动。”

  伊朗军队此前也曾以美国的利益为目标,比如在伊斯兰革命卫队最高指挥官卡西姆·索莱曼尼将军2020年在美国的空袭中丧生后,袭击了美国在中东的基地。

  伊朗国民也实施了重大的网络攻击。

  一名伊朗国民上个月承认参与策划了2019年马里兰州巴尔的摩的勒索软件攻击,造成数千万美元的损失,并扰乱了关键的城市服务。虽然检察官没有指控Sina Gholinejad的活动受到伊朗政府的指导,但在宣布案件时,他们更广泛地警告了伊朗政府支持的针对美国关键基础设施的黑客组织。

  去年夏天,司法部还单独指控一名与伊朗政府有联系的巴基斯坦男子涉嫌寻求实施政治暗杀。当局告诉ABC新闻,Asif Merchant的目标包括特朗普和其他现任和前任美国官员。

  After Trump attacks Iran, what experts and officials fear for the American homeland

  In the wake of President Donald Trump's "massive precision strikes" on Iran, concerns have been raised both for Americans in the region and at home.

  A principal area of worry is cyberattacks by Iranian state actors, including targeting the banking system or energy grid.

  A recent Department of Homeland Security bulletin warned: "Iranian government-affiliated cyber actors will probably prioritize retaliatory attacks against Israeli targets in the short term but may target U.S. networks due to their perception of U.S. support for Israeli strikes."

  The bulletin urged domestic critical infrastructure entities to "immediately" assess and shore up their security. Such attacks have already infiltrated U.S. water and wastewater systems, according to the non-profit think tank Center for Internet Security, which briefed law enforcement on Friday.

  The Center was also concerned that Iran, in the wake of Israeli military strikes, might use "crude or escalatory tactics" or informal networks if its capabilities were degraded.

  "The likelihood of such attacks will increase if the U.S. strikes Iran or overtly provides military support to the Israeli air campaign," the group said.

  And the Center assessed that Iran's considerable network of proxy groups might be able to strike U.S. interests in the Middle East, though their capacity to strike the U.S. homeland was more limited.

  The groups, they assessed, while less sophisticated, could still disrupt public infrastructure and the private sector.

  On top of that was the fear of attacks by foreign nationals or American citizens inspired to strike the U.S.

  In 2018, the National Counterterrorism Center issued a report saying Iran-sponsored or Shia-inspired -- referring to one of the two major branches of Islam which is dominant in Iran -- terror on the U.S. homeland is unlikely, except if the U.S. were to attack Iran.

  "Given sustained bilateral U.S.-Iran tensions, the occurrence of such a catalyst could prompt Shia HVE [homegrown violent extremist] activity relatively quickly, underscoring the benefits of early engagement with Shia communities about indicators of HVE radicalization. Potential triggering events for such Shia HVE violence include U.S. military action against Iran."

  Iranian forces themselves have previously targeted American interests, hitting U.S. bases in the Middle East, for instance, after top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was killed in an American airstrike in Iraq in 2020.

  Iranian nationals have also carried out major cyberattacks.

  An Iranian national pleaded guilty last month to helping orchestrate the 2019 Baltimore, Maryland, ransomware attack that caused tens of millions of dollars in damage and disrupted critical city services. While prosecutors did not allege Sina Gholinejad was directed in his activities by the Iranian government, in announcing the case they warned more broadly of Iranian government-backed hacking groups targeting U.S. critical infrastructure.

  And in the summer of last year, the Justice Department also separately charged a Pakistani man with ties to the Iranian government for allegedly seeking to carry out political assassinations. Authorities told ABC News that among Asif Merchant's targets were Trump and other current and former U.S. officials.

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