对于唐纳德·特朗普总统来说,本周不仅是他在国际舞台上担任总统期间最重要的一周,或许在国内政策方面也是如此。
最近几天,很多政治注意力都集中在特朗普打击伊朗核设施的决定上。但在国会山,共和党领导层仍在努力推进一项庞大而美丽的法案,这是一项庞大的立法,挤满了特朗普的许多政策目标和竞选承诺。
该法案将使特朗普2017年的减税政策永久化,为边境安全和国防部分配额外资金,缩减医疗补助和SNAP福利,限制小费和加班费的税收,改变州和地方税收上限,等等。
共和党人希望该法案将于本周进入参议院,特朗普的目标是在7月4日之前将其放在他的办公桌上。这是一个雄心勃勃的时间表,使本周成为关键的一周。
在周日的社交媒体帖子中,特朗普再次呼吁国会迅速采取行动通过该法案。
“共和党内大团结,也许是我们从未见过的团结。现在,让我们完成这个伟大的,伟大的,美丽的法案。我们的国家做得很好。MAGA!”特朗普发帖。
多数党领袖约翰·图恩(John Thune)周一早上在福克斯新闻频道数字网站上发布的一篇专栏文章中表示,他打算让参议院按照既定的时间表继续下去。
“参议员们今天返回华盛顿,我们将留在这里,直到这项法案获得通过。我们知道民主党人会制造恐慌,歪曲我们的努力,我们希望他们用不相关的问题把这场辩论拖到深夜。然而,我有信心我们会通过这项法案,”图恩写道。
该法案对特朗普的遗产如此重要的原因之一是,共和党人正试图利用预算和解来通过该法案,这一程序允许他们绕过参议院通常需要60票才能通过立法的规则,而是以简单多数通过该法案。
因此,共和党人知道这是他们的最佳选择,并且由于众议院议长·迈克·约翰逊难以置信的微弱多数,也许只有努力让川普的政策承诺通过成为法律。这就是为什么这项法案充满了共和党立法者和特朗普政府的优先事项。
但是,有规则规定什么可以被纳入法案。以已故参议员罗伯特·伯德(Robert Byrd)命名的“伯德规则”( Byrd Rule)要求和解通过的法案中的所有条款都与预算直接相关。如果参议院议员伊丽莎白·麦克多诺(Elizabeth MacDonough)裁定,共和党提出的任何条款违反了这条规定,那么共和党人将不得不修改或删除这些条款,否则该法案将面临60票的门槛。
这一审查过程在参议院有时被称为“伯德浴”。
周一可能是最关键的审查之一,因为麦克多诺将开始考虑参议院财政委员会管辖范围内的条款。这是该法案的一部分,包括对医疗补助、州和地方税以及2017年税收永久性的拟议修改。
但是这位议员整个周末都在努力工作。她已经对共和党人一揽子计划中的关键条款进行了多次打击。
麦克多诺周五告诉共和党人,他们不能包括将消费者金融保护局的资金为零的语言,发现它在规则之外。其他与银行委员会相关的条款也遭到了否决。
她还达成了一项备受关注的条款,该条款要求诉讼当事人缴纳保证金,以便联邦法院执行全国性的初步禁令或临时限制令。民主党人尤其热衷于反对这一条款,他们认为这一条款有利于特朗普,特朗普已经公开表达了他对联邦法院针对他的一些行政行为发出的禁令的不满。
共和党人希望通过实施一项新条款来削减该法案的成本,该条款要求各州承担补充营养援助计划(SNAP)的部分成本。但是麦克多诺发现这一条款也是不合理的,因为这一条款可能会阻止非法移民获得该项目的援助。
然而,对许多共和党人来说,麦克多诺裁定,针对65岁以下健全人的新的快速工作要求可以保留在法案中。
她还裁定,禁止州级人工智能法规的提议可以保留在方案中。
共和党人现在将试图修改他们的法案,以确保在等待议员完成擦洗时不会违反规则。
麦克多诺必须在共和党人能够进入参议院之前完成她的工作。她的裁决将受到密切关注,因为参议院的目标是在未来几天推动立法。
在议员完成工作后,如果图恩有信心该法案在参议院获得通过的票数,他将把它转移到议会,预计民主党人将在一个通宵投票会议上进行漫长的斗争。
如果共和党人团结一致,最终民主党人将无法阻止该法案通过。
如果参议院完成该法案的工作,它将不得不回到众议院,众议院几周前勉强通过了该法案的版本。约翰逊面临着一个难以控制的会议,对他来说,在7月4日之前完成法案并提交给特朗普将是一个沉重的负担。
It's a big week for Trump's 'big, beautiful bill'
For President Donald Trump, this week stands to be not only one of the most consequential of his presidency on the international stage, but also perhaps in domestic policy as well.
Much political attention has been focused in recent days on Trump's decision to strike nuclear sites in Iran. But on Capitol Hill, Republican leadership is still plowing ahead on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a massive piece of legislation jam-packed with many of Trump's policy objectives and campaign promises.
The bill would make the Trump 2017 tax cuts permanent, allocate additional funding for border security and the Department of Defense, scale back Medicaid and SNAP benefits, limit taxes on tips and overtime, change state and local tax caps, and do far more.
Republicans are hopeful the bill will head to the Senate floor this week with Trump's stated goal of having it on his desk by the Fourth of July. That's an ambitious timeline that makes this week a critical one.
In a Sunday social media post, Trump again called for Congress to act quickly to pass the bill.
"Great unity in the Republican Party, perhaps unity like we have never seen before. Now let's get the Great, Big, Beautiful Bill done. Our Country is doing GREAT. MAGA!" Trump posted.
Majority Leader John Thune said in an op-ed posted on Fox News Digital on Monday morning that he intends to keep the Senate going on the stated timeline.
"Senators return to Washington today and we will remain here until this bill is passed. We know that Democrats will fearmonger and misrepresent our efforts, and we expect them to drag this debate long into the night with unrelated issues. However, I am confident we will get this bill across the finish line," Thune wrote.
One of the reasons that this bill is so consequential for Trump's legacy is that Republicans are attempting to pass it using budget reconciliation, a procedure that allows them to sidestep Senate rules that normally require 60 votes to pass legislation and to instead pass the bill with a simple majority.
As a result, Republicans know this is their best, and, due to House Speaker Mike Johnson's incredibly tight majority, perhaps only shot at getting Trump's policy promises passed into law. That's why this bill is loaded up with priorities of GOP lawmakers and the Trump administration.
But there are rules that regulate what can be put into the bill. The Byrd Rule, named after the late Sen. Robert Byrd, requires that all provisions in a bill passed under reconciliation relate directly to the budget. If Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough rules that any of the proposed Republican provisions violate the rule, then Republicans will have to retool or strip them out, or risk subjecting the bill to the 60-vote threshold.
This review process is sometimes referred to in the Senate as the "Byrd Bath."
Monday could be one of the most critical reviews yet as MacDonough is set to begin consideration of the provisions in the Senate Finance Committee's jurisdiction. This is the portion of the bill that includes proposed changes to Medicaid, state and local taxes, and the 2017 tax permanence.
But the parliamentarian has been hard at work all weekend long. And she's already dealt Republicans a number of blows to key provisions in their package.
MacDonough on Friday told Republicans they could not include language that would zero out funding for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, finding it outside the rules. Other banking committee-related provisions were also struck.
She also struck a closely watched provision that would have required litigants to post a bond in order for federal courts to enforce nationwide preliminary injunctions or temporary restraining orders. Democrats were particularly keen on arguing against this provision which they saw as favoring Trump, who has made his displeasure over injunctions handed down by federal courts against some of his executive actions quite publicly known.
Republicans hoped to cut costs of the bill by implementing a new provision that would have required states to pick up some of the costs of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). But MacDonough found that provision also out of order, as well as one that would have prevented undocumented migrants from receiving assistance under the program.
In a win for many Republicans, however, MacDonough ruled that new SNAP work requirements for able-bodied individuals under 65 could stay in the bill.
She also ruled that proposed ban on state-level regulations of artificial intelligence could remain in the package.
Republicans will now attempt to retool their bill to make sure it doesn't run afoul of the rules while they wait for the parliamentarian to finish her scrub.
MacDonough must complete her work before Republicans can move forward on the Senate floor. Her rulings will be closely watched as the Senate aims to propel the legislation forward in the coming days.
After the parliamentarian finishes her work, if Thune is confident that the bill has the votes to pass in the Senate, he'll move it to the floor, where Democrats are expected to put up a lengthy fight in an all-night voting session called a vote-a-rama.
There's ultimately little Democrats will be able to do to stop the bill from passing if Republicans hang together.
If the Senate completes work on the bill, it will have to go back to the House, which narrowly passed its version of the bill a few weeks ago. Johnson faces an unruly conference and it'll be a heavy lift for him to get the bill completed and sent to Trump before July 4.