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特朗普向内塔尼亚胡施压要求加沙停火

2025-07-08 10:34 -ABC  -  573117

  如同以色列一、本雅明·内塔尼亚胡总理周一与美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥、中东问题特使史蒂夫·威特科夫以及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行了会晤。以下是停火谈判的最新进展,以及特朗普政府在规划加沙未来道路方面的日程安排。

  桌子上有什么

  谈判桌上的协议将会看到10名活着的人质——大约是据信仍在加沙活着的被拘留者总数的一半——以及另外18名人质的遗体分五批返回以色列,以换取60天的停火,释放一些巴勒斯坦囚犯,以及增加对该飞地巴勒斯坦人的人道主义援助。T

  据一位知情官员说,如何提供和分配援助的细节仍在谈判中。

  官员们说,预计美国支持的永久结束战争的谈判将在停战期间继续进行。

  事情的现状

  以色列已经签署了目前提案的主要原则。哈马斯表示,它看到了潜力,但仍有一些悬而未决的问题。

  熟悉谈判的官员说,最大的症结与过去失败的谈判一致:哈马斯希望得到停火将导致永久结束战争的保证。它希望得到保证,如果有必要的话,停火期间关于永久结束战争的谈判将在60天之后继续进行。

  与此同时,以色列不愿意签署任何限制军事行动的协议。

  以色列还坚持认为,不能允许哈马斯在治理加沙方面发挥任何作用——特朗普政府赞同这一术语。两国政府都小心翼翼,不允许出现类似黎巴嫩真主党的情况,那里有一个文职政府,但激进组织掌握着很大的控制权。

  哈马斯还希望看到有争议的加沙人道主义基金会(GHF)停止运作,并允许联合国和其他国际组织完全恢复分发。美国官员说,他们认为在这一点上有一些妥协的空间,但不认为美国支持的GHF会被完全赶出去。

  以色列驻联合国大使丹尼尔·丹农(Daniel Dannon)上周告诉记者,他可以预见GHF和联合国在加沙实施“灾后”援助的某种“组合”。

  以色列和哈马斯官员正在多哈举行间接近距离会谈,试图解决一些分歧,白宫周一早些时候表示,维特科夫将于本周前往那里。

  维特科夫的参与被视为达成协议前景的一个有希望的迹象,但也表明需要美国更多高层的参与才能越过终点线。

  接下来事情会如何发展

  官员们非常重视特朗普总统和其他主要内阁成员与内塔尼亚胡的会晤,因为即使以色列在停火协议的主要条款上与美国意见一致,政府也在期待内塔尼亚胡试图制定一个残局,并确定加沙“第二天”的目标。

  特朗普在很大程度上专注于扩大《亚伯拉罕协议》(Abraham Accords),该协议在他的第一个任期内导致了以色列和一些阿拉伯国家之间的关系正常化。他还提出了加沙200万巴勒斯坦人的搬迁计划,内塔尼亚胡当时对此表示支持。

  亚伯拉罕协议的扩展和加沙的“后天”提议都被认为需要像沙特阿拉伯这样有影响力的阿拉伯国家更广泛的支持。

  他们中的许多人坚持认为,巴勒斯坦权力机构应该在治理加沙方面发挥作用,而以色列对此表示反对。与这些中东国家政府就加沙问题进行的工作层面讨论正在持续进行。

  特朗普正在寻求在加沙取得重大胜利——以及在伊朗问题上的势头

  2021年至2023年担任中东事务副助理国防部长的达纳·斯特鲁尔(Dana Stroul)表示,特朗普正在内塔尼亚胡访问期间寻求“一个大写的胜利”。

  奥巴马总统曾表示,他将通过他结束的战争来衡量他总统任期的成功,他将寻求通过加沙停火来摆脱他在伊朗斡旋的停火。

  施特鲁尔说,在美国加入以色列在伊朗的战争后,他“不仅有影响力,而且已经与内塔尼亚胡建立了善意”。

  “特朗普总统在游戏中投入了资源,而不仅仅是文字。因此,在这个时刻,他有机会告诉内塔尼亚胡,是时候结束加沙的战争了。

  虽然尚不清楚美国在袭击伊朗后在伊朗寻求什么样的外交成果,但总统可能会试图表达他的善意,“向内塔尼亚胡明确表示他希望如何推进伊朗问题。”

  “这当然是一笔大交易的要素,”斯特鲁尔说。但停火只能暂时停止战斗,之后才能就加沙和该地区达成广泛的“后天”协议。

  Where things stand as Trump presses Netanyahu for Gaza ceasefire: ANALYSIS

  AsIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held meetings Monday with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and then President Donald Trump, here is the latest on where things stand with ceasefire negotiations -- and what's on the Trump administration's agenda when it comes to charting a course for the future of Gaza.

  What's on the table

  The deal on the table would see ten living hostages -- about half of the total amount of detainees believed to still be alive in Gaza -- and the remains of 18 more returned to Israel in five separate releases in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire, the release of some Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid for Palestinians in the enclave. T

  he details of how that aid would be supplied and distributed are still under negotiation, according to an official familiar with the matter.

  The expectation is that U.S.-backed talks to permanently end the war would pick up during the truce, officials say.

  Where things stand

  Israel has signed off on the main tenets of the proposal as it currently stands. Hamas has indicated it sees potential but still has some outstanding issues.

  Officials familiar with the negotiations say that the biggest sticking point is consistent with failed talks in the past: Hamas wants assurances that a ceasefire will lead to a permanent end to war. It wants assurances that talks during the ceasefire on a permanent end to the war will continue beyond the 60-day window if it's necessary.

  Israel, meanwhile, is reluctant to sign on to any language that restricts military action.

  Israel is also adamant that Hamas can't be allowed to play any part in governing Gaza -- a term the Trump administration is aligned with. Both governments are wary of allowing for a situation similar to what existed in Lebanon with Hezbollah, where a civilian government is in place but the militant group holds significant control.

  Hamas also wants to see the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) end operations and the U.N. plus other international organizations allowed to fully resume distribution. U.S. officials say they believe there is some room for compromise on this point, but don't foresee the U.S.-backed GHF being fully pushed out.

  Daniel Dannon, Israel's ambassador to the U.N., told reporters last week he could foresee some "combination" of GHF and the U.N. administering aid in a "day-after" scenario for Gaza.

  Israeli and Hamas officials are holding indirect proximity talks in Doha to try to resolve some of the differences, and the White House said earlier Monday that Witkoff would travel there this week.

  Witkoff's involvement is seen as a promising sign for the prospect of reaching an agreement, but also as an indication that it will take more high-level engagement from the U.S. to get it over the finish line.

  Where things go next

  Officials are very much looking at President Trump and other key Cabinet member meeting with Netanyahu as working engagements, because even though Israel sees eye to eye with the U.S on the major terms of the ceasefire agreement, the administration is looking to Netanyahu as it attempts to work out an endgame and settle on objectives for the "day after" in Gaza.

  Trump has largely focused on expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement in his first term that led to normalization of relations between Israel and some Arab nations. He's also proposed a relocation plan for Gaza's two million Palestinians, which Netanyahu endorsed at the time.

  An expansion of the Abraham Accords and a "day-after" proposal for Gaza are both seen as needing broader regional buy-in from influential Arab States, like Saudi Arabia.

  Many of them are insistent the PA should play a role in governing Gaza, which Israel has opposed. Working-level discussions on Gaza with those Middle Eastern governments are happening on a continuous basis.

  Trump is seeking a big win in Gaza -- and momentum on Iran

  Trump is seeking a "victory with a capital "V" during Netanyahu's visit, said Dana Stroul, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East from 2021 to 2023.

  The president, who has said he'll measure the success of his presidency by the wars he's ended, will look to ride off of the ceasefire he brokered in Iran with a ceasefire in Gaza.

  He "not only has leverage, but has built up goodwill" with Netanyahu after the U.S. joined Israel's war in Iran, Stroul said.

  "President Trump has put resources in the game, not just words. And so he has leverage at this moment in time to tell Netanyahu, it's time to wind down the wars in Gaza," she said.

  While it's not clear what diplomatic outcome the U.S. is seeking in Iran after its strikes there, the president could try to deposit his goodwill and "make clear [to Netanyahu] how he wants to move forward on the Iran file."

  "It certainly has the makings of a grand bargain," Stroul said. But a ceasefire would only temporarily halt fighting before a broad "day-after" agreement for Gaza -- and the region -- can be negotiated.

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