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据专家称,数万亿的政府债务会如何影响你的钱包

2025-08-06 08:39 -ABC  -  89950

  唐纳德·特朗普总统的国内支出措施无党派的国会预算办公室(CBO)称,这将在10年内增加超过4万亿美元的国债说这周。

  据CBO报道,由于预期利率上升,这将增加政府的偿债支出,新的估计提高了先前的预测。

  宾夕法尼亚大学、密歇根州立大学和两党政策中心的分析师告诉美国广播公司新闻,预计联邦债务的上升使政府的财政状况变得复杂,但它也对普通人的钱包产生了潜在的严重后果。

  分析师表示,利率上行压力可能会提高企业和消费者的借贷成本,使抵押贷款或偿还信用卡的成本更高。与此同时,工资增长可能会放缓,从而挤压负责偿还更高贷款利率的消费者。

  “这已经是一个爆炸性的债务路径-现在我们在它的顶部堆积,”曾在CBO工作的宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院教授Kent Smetters告诉美国广播公司新闻。“为此付出代价的是子孙后代。”

  6月,白宫对特朗普支出措施带来的债务风险表示担忧。相反,特朗普政府表示,随着经济增长飙升推动税收增加,这项措施将削减国家债务。

  “特朗普总统的计划不仅促进了经济增长,实际上还减轻了未来几代人的债务负担——这是华盛顿当局几十年来没有做到的,”白宫表示说在一份声明中。

  美国有积欠将近37万亿美元的债务。2023年,CBO说到2033年底,联邦债务将再增加20万亿美元。根据CBO的说法,这一评估是在特朗普的支出措施之前做出的,特朗普的支出措施将增加数万亿美元的债务。

  自2001年联邦政府出现上一次预算盈余以来,已经过去了20多年。自那以后,美国每年的支出都超过收入,这加深了美国的财政缺口。

  随着政府发行越来越多的国债,不断膨胀的联邦债务预计将提高利率。因此,债权人可能会要求更高的收益率,因为他们认为美国不会偿还债务的风险增加了。

  密歇根州立大学(Michigan State University)经济学教授查理·巴拉德(Charley Ballard)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示,“随着这些债务的供应量变得如此之大,美国和其他地方的贷款人将坚持提高利率。”

  政府债务的利率有所帮助设置从抵押贷款到汽车贷款,再到信用卡,一切的借贷成本。分析师表示,如果利率上升,消费者可能面临更高的贷款费用和更大的违约风险。

  与此同时,一些分析师表示,利率上行压力预计将拖累经济产出,并拉低经通胀调整的工资增长。

  宾夕法尼亚大学下属的预测机构宾夕法尼亚沃顿商学院预算模型,预测由于特朗普的支出措施,平均工资将在30年内下降3.4%,部分原因是债务增加。

  “随着债务越来越多,最终总有人要为此买单,”斯迈特斯说。

  可以肯定的是,几十年来,学者和倡导者一直在对国债敲响警钟,但却没有出现任何危机。

  随着政府积累债务,对美国国债的需求仍然强劲,这是因为美国作为世界头号经济体和全球储备货币发行国的独特地位。这种强劲的需求使得利率保持在相对较低的水平。

  接受美国广播公司采访的分析人士承认,很难预测何时会出现严重影响,但他们警告说,目前的趋势是不可持续的。

  “我很惊讶世界信贷市场对美元债务有如此巨大的胃口,”Ballard说。“我就是不敢相信胃口是无限的。”

  五月,顶级评级机构穆迪,切口美国信用评级从最高评级Aaa下调一档,至较低的Aa1级。

  几年前,另外两家主要信用机构也对美国债务进行了类似的降级。S标普在2011年和2023年惠誉.

  “信用评级机构表示,这是投资者的一个担忧。在某个时候,我们会遇到危机,人们会回过头来说,‘我们为什么不早点做些什么?’”两党政策中心负责经济政策的副总裁Shai Akabas告诉ABC新闻。
 

What $4 trillion in debt from Trump's spending measure could mean for future generations

  President Donald Trump's domestic spendingmeasurewill add more than $4 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO)saidthis week.

  The fresh estimate ratcheted up a previous forecast due to an expected jump in interest rates, which would increase the government's debt-service payments, according to the CBO.

  This projected uptick in federal debt complicates the government's finances but it also holds potentially severe consequences for the pocketbooks of everyday people, analysts from the University of Pennsylvania, Michigan State University and the Bipartisan Policy Center told ABC News.

  Upward pressure on interest rates could hike borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, making it more expensive to take out a mortgage or pay off a credit card, the analysts said. Meanwhile, wage growth could slow, squeezing consumers tasked with paying off the higher loan rates.

  "It was already an explosive debt path -- now we're piling on top of it," Kent Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business who formerly worked at the CBO, told ABC News. "It's the future generations who will pay for this."

  In June, the White House disputed concerns about the debt risk posed by Trump's spending measure. Rather, the Trump administration said, the measure will cut the nation's debt as a surge in economic growth fuels higher tax revenue.

  "President Trump's plan doesn't just grow the economy, it actually reduces the debt burden on future generations -- something the D.C. establishment hasn't done in decades," the White Housesaidin a statement.

  The U.S. hasrun upnearly $37 trillion in debt. In 2023, the CBOsaidthe federal debt would grow another $20 trillion by the end of 2033. That assessment arrived before Trump's spending measure, which is set to add trillions more to the debt, according to the CBO.

  It's been more than 20 years since federal government's last budget surplus, which occurred in 2001. Every year since then, the U.S. has spent more money than it has brought in, deepening the nation's financial hole.

  The ballooning federal debt is expected to raise interest rates as the government issues larger and larger amounts of Treasury bonds. As a result, creditors would likely demand higher yields amid a perception of increased risk that the U.S. would not repay.

  "As the supply of those debts gets so big, lenders around the world in the U.S. and elsewhere will insist on higher interest rates," Charley Ballard, a professor of economics at Michigan State University, told ABC News.

  Interest rates on government debt helpsetborrowing costs for everything from mortgages to auto loans to credit cards. If they rise, consumers could face higher loan expenses and greater risk of default, according to analysts.

  Meanwhile, the upward pressure on interest rates is expected to drag on economic output and pull back inflation-adjusted wage growth, some analysts said.

  The Penn Wharton Budget Model, a forecast affiliated with the University of Pennsylvania,predictsthe average wage will end up 3.4% lower over 30 years as a result of Trump's spending measure, in part due to added debt.

  "As you get more debt, ultimately somebody has to pay for it," Smetters said.

  To be sure, academics and advocates have been raising alarm about the national debt for decades -- with no crisis to show for it.

  As the government has piled on debt, demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has remained robust, owing to the country's unique position as the world's top economy and the issuer of the global reserve currency. That strong demand has kept interest rates relatively low.

  Analysts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged the difficulty in predicting when severe effects may materialize but warned the current trajectory is unsustainable.

  "I've been surprised that the world credit markets have such an enormous appetite for dollar debt," Ballard said. "I just can't believe that appetite is infinite."

  In May, Moody's, a top ratings agency,cutthe U.S. credit rating, dropping it one notch from the top rating of Aaa to a lower classification of Aa1.

  Moody's credit reassessment came years after similar downgrades of U.S. debt at the two other major credit agencies:S&P in 2011andFitch in 2023.

  "The credit rating agencies are saying this is a concern for investors. At some point, we'll have a crisis and people will look back and say, 'Why didn't we do something earlier?'" Shai Akabas, vice president of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, told ABC News.

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