最高官员美联储表现出罕见的公众分歧利率下调下个月。
期货市场显示，最近几天，随着一些有影响力的央行行长表示对降息持开放态度，市场情绪明显转向支持降息。然而，不和谐依然存在。
降息可以减少与家庭相关的一切开支抵押从信用卡到汽车付款，让贷款或再贷款变得更便宜。
该政策还将缓解企业借贷，并有可能刺激招聘，但它有推高就业的风险通货膨胀当许多美国人都在为日常开销而挣扎的时候。
维拉诺瓦大学商学院金融学教授约翰·塞杜诺夫(John Sedunov)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，“我们很久没有看到美联储表现出如此多的不确定性了。”
以下是关于为什么美联储在利率决策上存在分歧以及该政策对你意味着什么的一些信息。
为什么美联储在可能的降息问题上存在分歧?
最近几个月，通胀有所抬头，价格涨幅比美联储2%的目标高出整整一个百分点。与此同时，招聘放缓，带来了被称为“双重经济打击”的风险滞胀."
这些情况使美联储陷入困境，因为央行必须平衡双重任务，以控制通胀和实现就业最大化。为了应对这两个目标的压力，美联储主要使用一个工具:利率。
“我们有一个工具，”美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上个月在华盛顿特区的一次新闻发布会上说。“你不可能同时解决这两个问题。”
如果美联储保持利率稳定作为防范关税引起的通货膨胀这有可能导致劳动力市场进一步放缓。另一方面，如果美联储在招聘放缓的情况下降低利率来刺激经济，则有可能刺激支出并加剧通胀。
维拉诺瓦大学商学院金融学教授约翰·塞杜诺夫告诉美国广播公司新闻，美联储的政策制定者对于是优先抑制通货膨胀还是刺激就业存在分歧。
“美联储正在与这种想法作斗争:我们是将通胀推向我们的目标，还是对就业市场采取一些措施?”塞杜诺夫说。“这条路很难走。”
为什么支持降息的势头越来越大?
在美联储下一次会议上，降息的可能性已经大大增加。
数据显示，降息25个基点的可能性接近85%，较上周30%的低水平大幅上升CME FedWatch工具，衡量市场情绪的指标。
前景似乎是对模糊的就业报告和鲍威尔在负责设定利率的委员会中的两个盟友的公开声明做出的回应。
周五，9月份的就业报告送关于劳动力市场的混合信号。9月份，雇主增加的员工数量远远超过预期，尽管招聘数量没有达到惊人的水平。与此同时，失业率上升至4.4%，按历史标准来看是一个较低的数字，但却是自2021年10月以来的最高纪录。
经常与鲍尔步调一致的纽约联邦储备银行总裁约翰·威廉姆斯周五表示对降息持开放态度，他告诉记者，他仍认为“短期内有进一步调整的空间”
几天后，旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利(Mary Daley)采取了类似的立场，她告诉记者，她认为“近期内”还有进一步调整的空间戴利今年不会就利率问题投票，他被广泛认为是鲍威尔的支持者。
“他们两人都非常明确地支持降息，”彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员、前美联储官员约瑟夫·加尼翁告诉美国广播公司新闻。"两人都相当中间派，接近主席(鲍威尔). "
“一周前，事情还悬而未决。他们搬家主要是因为威廉姆斯和戴利，”加尼翁补充道。
降息对你来说意味着什么?
降息25个基点将使美联储的基准利率降至3.5%至3.75%之间的水平。
这一数字将标志着从2023年的峰值大幅回落。疫情成立之初，利率为0%。
不过，降低利率可能会给抵押贷款和信用卡借款人带来一些缓解。然而，随着银行账户利率下降，储户将会损失收入。
The Fed is divided over cutting interest rates. Here's why that matters
Top officials at theFederal Reservehave displayed a rare degree of public disagreement over a possibleinterest rate cutnext month.
In recent days, sentiment shifted dramatically in favor of an interest rate cut as some influential central bankers voiced openness toward the move, futures markets showed. Still, discord remains.
A rate cut could reduce expenses associated with everything from homemortgagesto credit cards to car payments, making it cheaper to get a loan or refinance one.
The policy would also ease borrowing for businesses and potentially boost hiring, but it risks driving upinflationat a time when many Americans struggle with everyday costs.
“We haven’t seen this much uncertainty from the Fed in a long time,” John Sedunov, a finance professor at Villanova University's School of Business, told ABC News.
Here’s what to know about why the Fed is divided over its rate decision and what the policy could mean for you.
Why is the Fed divided over a possible interest rate cut?
Inflation has picked up in recent months, putting price increases a full percentage point above the Fed’s target of 2%. Meanwhile, hiring has slowed, posing a risk of an economic double-whammy known as "stagflation."
Those conditions have put the Fed in a bind, since the central bank must balance a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. To address pressure on both of its goals, the Fed primarily holds a single tool: interest rates.
“We have one tool,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month. “You can’t address both of those at once.”
If the Fed holds interest rates steady as a means of protecting againsttariff-induced inflation, it risks a deeper slowdown of the labor market. On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a hiring slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.
Policymakers at the Fed disagree about whether to prioritize containing inflation or jolting employment, John Sedunov, a finance professor at Villanova University's School of Business, told ABC News.
“The Fed is fighting with this idea: Do we push inflation more toward our goal or do we do something about the job market?” Sedunov said. “It’s a tough line to walk.”
Why is momentum building in favor of an interest rate cut?
The odds have shifted significantly in favor of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting.
The chances of a quarter-point interest rate cut stand at nearly 85%, surging from a level as low as 30% last week, according toCME FedWatch Tool, a measure of market sentiment.
The prospects appeared to move in response to a murky jobs report and public statements from two allies of Powell on the committee charged with setting rates.
On Friday, a jobs report for Septembersentmixed signals about the labor market. Employers added far more workers than expected in September, though hiring fell short of a breakneck clip. Meanwhile the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, a low figure by historical standards but the highest recorded since October 2021.
New York Fed President John Williams, who is often in lockstep with Powell, on Friday voiced openness toward a rate cut, telling reporters he still saw “room for a further adjustment in the near term.”
Days later, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley took a similar position, telling reporters she sees room “for a further adjustment in the near term.” Daley, who isn’t voting on interest rates this year, is widely viewed as a supporter of Powell.
“Both of them came out in pretty clear support of a rate cut,” Joseph Gagnon, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Federal Reserve official, told ABC News. “Both are pretty centrist and close to chair [Powell].”
“A week ago, things were up in the air. They mostly moved because of Williams and Daley,” Gagnon added.
What would an interest rate cut mean for you?
A quarter-point interest rate cut would reduce the Fed’s benchmark rate to a level between 3.5% and 3.75%.
That figure would mark a significant pullback from a peak in 2023. At the outset of the pandemic, interest rates stood at 0%.
Still, a reduction of interest rates could offer some relief for mortgage and credit card borrowers. Savers, however, stand to lose income as interest rates decline for accounts held at banks.
