借助最近的民意调查势头和一系列非周期选举的胜利，民主党州长周末来到亚利桑那州的沙漠，像一个处于上升期的政党的领导人一样说话——即使焦虑的情绪挥之不去在表面之下，特朗普政府对他们的州和即将举行的选举的直接攻击悬而未决。
在凤凰城亚利桑那州比尔特莫尔酒店举行的民主党州长协会年度冬季会议上，该党一些最聪明的领导人宣扬“可负担性”的信息，这一信息最近引起了纽约市左倾选民联盟以及新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州郊区温和派的共鸣，同时也对白宫在2026年之前及之后积极倾斜道路规则的做法发出了警告。
在2028年的周期中，这些民主党人(该党最雄心勃勃的一些人)可能会很早就开始分裂，在初选之前加剧他们之间的分歧。但现在似乎还不是时候。
“我认为我们今年大获全胜，因为我们的候选人认识到，我认为-我们认识到的是:人们并不像许多人认为的那样热衷于政治，”DGA新任主席、肯塔基州州长安迪·贝希尔(Andy Beshear)周六说，他概述了该团体的计划，即扩大州长版图，超过他们目前拥有的23个席位，并在近20年来首次夺回大多数州长职位。
贝希尔说:“我相信，如果我们继续向美国人民表明，我们支持他们，我们认识到他们面临的迫在眉睫的挑战，我们理解美国梦似乎无法实现……我们将开始在我们很长时间没有取得胜利的地方取得胜利。”。“我们将改变一些席位，一些你希望我们竞争的地方，如佐治亚州和内华达州，以及一些你可能不会竞争的地方，如爱荷华州。”
近50名民主党州长和州长候选人与该党的一些顶级捐助者和操作人员聚集在亚利桑那州，许多人在接受美国广播公司新闻采访时采取了各种方法来解决党内的热点问题，如重划选区和传递经济和民主信息。与此同时，在白宫的动荡和攻击中，他们似乎一致承诺利用权力来维持现状。
当民主党在身份问题上苦苦挣扎，导致权力普遍丧失的时候，民主党州长被证明是该党的一个亮点;他们在州一级的行政领导和不断扩大的捐助基础成为共和党入侵的独特障碍。
“今年有趣的是热情——不仅仅是来自两个州(新泽西州和弗吉尼亚州)的人们——而是来自我们的捐助团体和感兴趣的人们。即将离任的堪萨斯州DGA主席劳拉·凯利说:“我们刚刚看到商业实体的数量真正增长，倡导团体对民主党州长正在做的事情感兴趣，并确保我们选举更多的民主党州长。”。
2028年，州长会成为民主党提名人吗?
这种强有力的行政领导为2028年的初选做出了健康的贡献。
当被问及她是否认为2028年民主党提名人将成为州长时，凯利说:“我不仅认为应该是，而且将会是。”“当你看看党、州长、国会，无论哪里，我看不出它会有任何其他发展。真正的领导是从州长的行列中走出来的。”
上周末，2028年之前的定位确实出现在可能的候选人中，尽管有人提出异议。
“谁知道呢?”周六，当被问及是否会寻求提名时，新当选的DGA副主席惠特莫大声说道。
“我的任何一个同事都将是一个非凡的候选人，能够击败我认为将成为现任副总统旗手的人。所以我赌民主党州长会成为下一任总统。”
与此同时，加利福尼亚州州长加文·纽瑟姆将他的亚利桑那州之行描述为2028年的影子政治，而不是保护该党的基本地图。他认为，筹资，以及很多筹资，是其中的一部分。“对不起，大声说出安静的部分，”他谈到筹款。“当这个组织支持你时，它可以做出非凡的事情。”
纽瑟姆回避了一个关于他自己对2028年的雄心的问题，而是谈到了唐纳德·特朗普总统在下届总统竞选中仍将是国王的现实。
“我仍然认为，特朗普的竞争叙事和他没有能力走下舞台，即使他选择不参加竞选，因为他认为他有权获得第三个任期，也会混淆这一点，”纽瑟姆说。“但我认为我们所有人，我，至少我所有的共和党朋友，都期待着深呼吸。那部自动扶梯已经走过了漫长的十年，”他补充道。
凤凰城的会议清楚地表明，民主党感受到了势头，但也看到了一个狭窄的、快速移动的窗口，在这个窗口中，它可以转化为权力。
他们现在面临的挑战是同时进行两场比赛:一场是与通过重划选区和选举诚信问题不那么巧妙地操纵政治领域的政府的比赛，另一场是在2028年早期架构中的相关性、捐助者和地位的比赛。
“这家伙不是乱来的。他们没有乱来，”纽瑟姆谈到特朗普和共和党时说。他认为，如果不在2026年坚守阵地，民主党将没有能力在2028年竞争。
“所以我认为，除非我们在2026年成功，否则2028年不会有自由、公平的选举……。因此，我本着2026年的精神，而不是为了任何其他原因，来到DGA，民主党州长协会必须成为复兴和修复进程的一部分，”纽瑟姆说。
民主党抓住关于“可负担性”的信息
民主党人以不同的方式运用新流行的主题“可负担性”。一些人强调这是一场针对特朗普政府的全国性斗争的镜头，其他人则倾向于将它作为餐桌上的信息，以回避主导精英民主政治的更大的法治和民主问题。
纽瑟姆说:“你知道，这是一个焦虑的时期，一个人们真正需要领导的时期，所以我们可以坚守阵地。”。“前线是各州。所以州长很重要。重划选区的州长很重要。”
“回到我对我的党的支付能力的辩护，或者说我的支持。我的意思是，我不知道你怎么能为关税政策辩护，你怎么能为一个负担得起的议程辩护大规模驱逐劳动力短缺?...这就是现在共和党脖子上的棍子，这就是他们的党…这就是他们的记录，”纽瑟姆补充道。
但并不是每个人都渴望重新将话题转向特朗普或存在主义之争。
一些最近表现最强劲的民主党人，如当选州长米基·谢里尔(Mikie Sherrill)，通过不懈地钻研餐桌问题赢得了新泽西州的竞选，表明民主党人应该明确支付能力。
“你不能只是说，‘哦，特朗普拆除了白宫东翼，我很失望，’”谢里尔说，回击了她认为选民忽视的愤怒。“你必须说的是，看，有一个关税制度…让总统变得更富有…你为每件事付出更多，从你的一杯咖啡到你为晚餐购买的食品杂货。”
民主党进攻
与今年举行的其他国会竞选类似，与2024年的结果相比，上周的田纳西州特别选举向民主党方向大幅倾斜。
对于佛罗里达州州长候选人大卫·乔利(David Jolly)来说，他正在全州范围内竞选一个30多年来一直没有被民主党人占据的席位，他将田纳西州的竞选和下周预计将是一场激烈的迈阿密市长决选的势头视为他可能在2026年取得成功的指标。
“我认为民主党人可能会在下周二赢得迈阿密市长职位，这是30年来的第一次，”乔利说。“我认为迈阿密市长的竞选已经影响了我们州长的竞选，因为它肯定了已经存在的变化。”
“在佛罗里达州，我感到兴奋的是，在一个选民登记人数少了一百万的州，我们仍然有三分之一的州是独立的，我们有不满的共和党人。因此，如果民主党能够建立一个联盟并赢得州长职位，我们将建立一个这个国家前所未有的政治联盟，”乔利说。
在亚利桑那州，像乔利这样的红州和战场州长候选人似乎重新燃起了乐观情绪，准备在民主党新的“大帐篷”拥抱中战斗。
当被问及是什么使他成为一名与众不同的候选人时，威斯康星州民主党人曼德拉·巴恩斯告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“以大胆的愿景领导”。“不要等待共和党人来定义我们，而是站在整个国家人民变革的最前沿。”
巴恩斯也看好他对该州选区重划的支持，这是他的前任托尼·埃弗斯说过他不会碰的。当被美国广播公司新闻问及时，他对在威斯康辛州重绘地图持开放态度。巴恩斯说，“开放是一种保守的说法”，呼吁重新绘制地图，以便民主党人获得两个席位。
在爱荷华州，州长候选人罗布·桑德(Rob Sand)是唯一一位全州范围内当选的民主党人，他说他一直在努力弥合该州政党之间的差距，以便他能够团结选民。
“爱荷华州已经从一个明显的紫色州变成了一个看不见的紫色州。它仍然是紫色的，”桑德告诉美国广播公司新闻，刚刚结束他在该州每个县的市政厅巡回演出。“我不考虑我在民主党中的位置。我对融入派对不感兴趣。我有兴趣说出我的信仰，为我的信仰而战，并努力为爱荷华州的人民服务。”
Democratic governors position themselves as national leaders against Trump, ahead of midterms and 2028
Riding recent polling momentum and a string of off-cycle electoral victories, Democratic governors descended into the Arizona desert over the weekend, talking like leaders of a party on the upswing -- even if a mood of anxiety lingeredclose under the surface, with direct attacks from the Trump administration on their states and on upcoming elections hanging in the balance.
At the Democratic Governors Association’s annual Winter meeting at the Arizona Biltmore hotel in Phoenix,some of the brightest leaders of the party touted the "affordability" message that recently resonated with a coalition of voters across left-leaning New York City to suburban moderates in New Jersey and Virginia, while also sounding the alarm over a White House moving aggressively to tilt the rules of the road before 2026 and beyond.
It could be early enough in the 2028 cycle for these Democrats -- some of the party’s most ambitious -- to start splintering, sharpening the differences amongst themselves ahead of a primary. But it doesn’t seem like the time yet.
“I think we had big wins this year, because our candidates recognize, I think --what we recognize: that people aren't as political as many people think that they are,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, the new Chair of the DGA, said on Saturday, outlining the group’s plans to expand the gubernatorial map past the 23 seats they currently hold and reclaim the majority of governorships for the first time in nearly two decades.
“I believe that if we continue to show the American people that we are for them, and we recognize the challenges that they face in the immediacy of them, that we understand that the American dream feels like it is unattainable… We'll start winning in places we haven't for a long time,” Beshear said. “We're going to flip some seats, some places that you expect us to compete like Georgia and Nevada, and places that you might not -- like Iowa.”
Among the group of nearly 50 Democratic governors and gubernatorial candidates gathered in Arizona with some of the party's top donors and operatives, many who spoke with ABC News took various approaches to tackling hot-button party issues like redistricting and messaging on the economy and democracy. Meanwhile, they appeared united in their commitment to leveraging power in order to maintain the status quo amid upheaval and attacks from the White House.
At a time when the Democratic Party struggles with identity issues that have contributed to a widespread loss of power, Democratic governors have proved to be a bright spot for the party; with their state-level executive leadership and expanding donor base acting as a unique barrier to Republican inroads.
“What was fun this year was the enthusiasm -- not even just from the people across the two states (New Jersey and Virginia) -- but from our donor group and people interested. We've just seen a real growth in the number of business entities, advocacy groups were interested in what Democratic governors are doing and ensuring that we elect more Democratic governors,” outgoing DGA Chair Laura Kelly of Kansas said.
Could a governor be the Democratic nominee in 2028?
This strong executive leadership has contributed to a healthy amount of 2028 primary buzz.
“Not only do I think it should be -- it will be,” Kelly said, when asked if she thought the 2028 Democratic nominee would be a governor. “I can't see it going any other way, when you just look at the party, governors, Congress, wherever. The real leadership is coming out of the ranks of the governors.”
Over the weekend, positioning ahead of 2028 did come up among likely candidates, even if demurred.
“Who knows?” Whitmer, the newly elected vice chair of the DGA, exclaimed on Saturday when asked if she’d seek the nomination.
“Any one of my colleagues would be a phenomenal candidate and would be able to beat who I think is going to be the standard bearer in the current vice president. So my money is on a Democratic governor to be the next president.”
Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom cast his trip to Arizona as less about 2028 shadow politics than about protecting the party’s basic map. Fundraising, and lots of it, is part of that, he argued. “Sorry, the quiet part out loud,” he said about fundraising. “This organization can do extraordinary things when it has your back.”
Newsom avoided a question about his own ambitions for 2028, instead moving to talk about the reality that President Donald Trump will still be the kingmaker in the next presidential race.
“I still think that the competing narrative of Trump and his incapacity to get off that stage, even if he chooses not to run as he believes he's entitled to a third term, will confound that,” Newsom said. “But I think we're all, I, at least, all my Republican friends, are looking forward to taking a deep breath. It's [been] a long decade since that escalator,” he added.
The meeting in Phoenix made clear that Democrats feel momentum, but also see a narrow, fast-moving window in which to turn it into power.
Their challenge now is to run two races at once: one against an administration that is not-so-subtly manipulating political terrain through redistricting and the issue of election integrity, and another against one another for relevance, donors, and position in the early architecture of 2028.
“This guy's not screwing around. They're not screwing around,” Newsom said about Trump and the Republican Party. Without holding the line in 2026, Democrats won’t have the ability to compete in 2028, he argued.
“And so I don't think there'll be a free, fair election… in 2028 unless we're successful in 2026. So, I'm here in the spirit of 2026, not for any other reason, here at the DGA, and the imperative for the Democratic Governors Association to be part of that process of renewal and repair,” Newsom said.
Democrats seizeon an 'affordability' message
Democrats wielded the newly popular theme of "affordability" in different ways. With some emphasizing it as a lens for a nationwide battle against the Trump administration, others leaned into it as a kitchen-table message to skirt larger rule-of-law and democracy issues that dominated elite Democratic politics.
“You know, a time of anxiety, a time where people really need leadership, so we can hold the line and stay on the line,” Newsom said. “The front lines are states. And so governors matter. The redistricting governors matter.”
“And back to my defense of, or my argument in favor of, my party's approach to affordability. I mean, I don't know how the hell you can make a case for tariff policy, how the hell you can defend a mass deportation labor shortage in defense of an affordability agenda?... And that's right now the cudgel around the Republican Party's neck, and that's their party… that's literally their record," Newsom added.
But not everyone was eager to recenter the conversation on Trump or existential battles.
Some of the strongest recent Democratic performers, like Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, who won her New Jersey race by drilling relentlessly into kitchen-table issues, signaled that the affordability lane is one Democrats should intend to keep clear.
“You can’t just say, ‘Oh, I'm so upset that Trump demolished the East Wing of the White House,’” Sherrill said, pushing back on outrage she believes voters tune out. “What you have to say is, look, there is a tariff regime… enriching the President… and you're paying more for everything from your cup of coffee to the groceries you buy for dinner.”
Democrats on offense
Similar to other congressional races held this year, the Tennessee special election last week tilted sharply in the Democratic Party’s direction compared with the results of 2024.
For Florida gubernatorial candidate David Jolly, a former Republican congressman who is running statewide for a seat that hasn’t been occupied by a Democrat in over 30 years, he’s looking at the Tennessee race and momentum from what’s expected to be a tight Miami Mayoral runoff race next week as an indicator that he might see success in 2026.
“I think a Democrat might win the Miami mayorship next Tuesday for the first time in 30 years,” Jolly said. “I think the Miami mayor's race has already impacted our governor's race because it affirmed the amount of change that's already there.”
“What I get excited about in Florida, in a state where we are underwater by a million for voter registrations, we still have a third of the state who are independents, and we have disaffected Republicans. So if the Democrats can build a coalition and win the governorship, we will have built a political coalition that this country hasn't seen,” Jolly said.
In Arizona, there appeared to be a renewed sense of optimism among red-state and battleground gubernatorial candidates like Jolly, ready to fight amidst the Democratic Party’s new “big-tent” embrace.
“Leading with a bold vision,” Wisconsin Democrat Mandela Barnes told ABC News when asked what makes him distinct as a candidate. “Not waiting for Republicans to define us and being on the forefront of change for people across the entire country.”
Barnes is also bullish on his support for redistricting in the state, something his predecessor, Tony Evers, has said he wouldn’t touch. When asked by ABC News, he was open to redrawing maps in Wisconsin. Barnes said that “open is an understatement,” calling for the map to be redrawn so that Democrats pick up two seats.
In Iowa, gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, the only statewide elected Democrat, said he’s been doing the work to bridge the gap between parties in his state so that he can unify the electorate.
“Iowa has shifted from a visibly purple state to an invisibly purple state. It is still purple,” Sand told ABC News, fresh off his town-hall tour across every county in the state. “I don't think about where I fit in the Democratic Party. I'm not interested in fitting into a party. I'm interested in saying what I believe, fighting for what I believe in, and trying to serve the people of the state of Iowa.”
