美联储保持基准利率不变星期三，继续央行最近几个月采取的观望态度，因为它观察了唐纳德·特朗普总统的潜在影响关税政策。
自美联储上次调整利率以来，已经过去了四次会议和六个月。联邦基金利率保持在4.25%至4.5%之间，保留了大部分为应对疫情时代的一轮通胀而大幅上调的利率。
美联储周三发布了一份预测，表明对通胀死灰复燃的一些担忧。央行预测，个人消费支出指数(美联储首选的通胀衡量指标)将在2025年剩余时间内从2.1%升至3%。这一预测标志着通胀预期高于央行在3月份发布的预期。
美联储还预测在2025年剩余时间内将降息两个基点，延续了3月份发布的预测。央行表示，将在2026年再降息25个基点，并在2027年降息25个基点。
鲍威尔周三在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上表示，关税可能会在今年“推高价格，拖累经济活动”。但他补充称，影响将取决于关税的“最终水平”，而关税经常波动。
鲍威尔说:“就目前而言，在考虑对我们的政策立场进行任何调整之前，我们已经做好准备，等待更多地了解经济的可能走向。”
美联储最新的利率决定无视特朗普几个小时前发表的言论，特朗普称美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔是“愚蠢的人”，并敦促央行降低利率。
“我们有一个拒绝降低美联储利率的人，”特朗普告诉记者。“也许我应该去找美联储。我可以任命自己吗?我会比这些人做得更好。”
近几个月来，美联储的克制姿态引发了尖锐而反复的质疑批评来自特朗普。法律禁止总统任命自己为独立的联邦机构美联储的主席。
自特朗普上任以来，通胀有所缓解，就业增长放缓。
上周的新通胀数据表现价格上涨略有加速，但通胀仍接近2021年以来的最低水平。雇用减速但本月的一份政府报告显示，5月份仍保持强劲，因为围绕断断续续的关税的不确定性对招聘的抑制作用似乎没有一些经济学家担心的那么大。
美联储受到双重任务的指导，既要控制通胀，又要实现就业最大化。理论上，降低利率可能有助于刺激经济活动和促进就业，尤其是在通胀保持低位的情况下。
最近几个月，鲍威尔警告说，关税可能会导致经济学家所谓的“滞胀，“也就是通货膨胀上升，经济放缓的时候。
滞胀可能会让央行陷入困境。在这种情况下，如果美联储加息作为防范关税引发的通胀的一种手段，它可能会抑制借贷，进一步放缓经济。
另一方面，如果美联储在面临潜在放缓的情况下降低利率来刺激经济，则有可能刺激支出并加剧通胀。
最近几周，特朗普已经收回了一些最严厉的关税，减轻了进口商的成本。这些公司通常会以提价的形式转嫁一部分更高的税负。
一笔交易协议在美国和中国大幅削减世界两大经济体之间针锋相对的关税，并引发股市飙升。几天之内，华尔街公司软化的他们对经济衰退的预测。
美中协议是在白宫暂停特朗普针对几十个国家的大部分“解放日”关税后几周达成的。特朗普还放松了针对汽车的特定行业关税，并降低了对墨西哥和加拿大部分商品的关税。
尽管如此，10%的关税适用于几乎所有进口商品，除了半导体、药品和其他一些商品。然而，这些关税在法律上没有着落，上个月晚些时候，联邦法院做出了两项裁决.
关税仍然适用于钢、铝以及一些来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品。
警告信号表明未来几个月价格可能会上涨。
像沃尔玛和百思买这样的全国性零售商有声的对征税可能导致价格上涨的担忧。
经济合作与发展组织，简称OECD，说该机构本月预计，到2025年底，美国的通胀率将达到4%，这将标志着目前水平的大幅上升。
鲍威尔选择保持利率不变，因为美联储正在评估关税的经济影响。
鲍威尔上个月在华盛顿特区的一次新闻发布会上说，“我们不认为我们需要着急”。“我们认为我们可以耐心等待。”
Fed holds interest rates steady, defying Trump
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steadyon Wednesday, continuing a wait-and-see approach adopted by the central bank in recent months as it observes potential effects of President Donald Trump'stariffpolicy.
Four meetings and six months have elapsed since the Fed last adjusted interest rates. The federal funds rate stands between 4.25% and 4.5%, preserving much of a sharp increase imposed in response to a pandemic-era bout of inflation.
The Fed issued a forecast on Wednesday indicating some concern about a rekindling of inflation. The personal consumption expenditures index, a measure of inflation preferred by the Fed, will rise from 2.1% to 3% over the remainder of 2025, the central bank predicted. That forecast marked higher inflation expectations than the central bank had issued in March.
The Fed also forecasted two quarter-point interest-rate cuts over the remainder of 2025, carrying over a prediction issued in March. Two additional quarter-point cuts will be made in 2026, as well as one quarter-point cut in 2027, the central bank said.
Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, Powell said tariffs would likely "push up prices and weigh on economic activity" over the course of this year. But, he added, the effects would depend on the "ultimate level" of tariffs, which have frequently fluctuated.
"For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell said.
The Fed's latest rate decision defied remarks made hours earlier by Trump, who called Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a "stupid person" and urged the central bank to reduce interest rates.
"We have a man who just refuses to lower the Fed rate," Trump told reporters. "Maybe I should go to the Fed. Am I allowed to appoint myself? I’d do a much better job than these people."
The posture of restraint at the Fed in recent months has elicited sharp and repeatedcriticismfrom Trump. The president is legally barred from appointing himself head of the Fed, an independent federal agency.
Since Trump took office, inflation has eased and job growth has slowed.
Fresh inflation data last weekshoweda slight acceleration of price increases, but inflation remains near its lowest level since 2021. Hiringslowedbut remained sturdy in May as the uncertainty surrounding on-again, off-again tariffs appeared to curtail hiring less than some economists feared, a government report this month showed.
The Fed is guided by a dual mandate to keep inflation under control and maximize employment. In theory, a lowering of interest rates could help stimulate economic activity and boost employment, especially while inflation remains low.
Powell, in recent months, has warned about the possibility that tariffs may cause what economists call "stagflation," which is when inflation rises and the economy slows.
Stagflation could put the central bank in a difficult position. If the Fed raises interest rates as a means of protecting against tariff-induced inflation under such a scenario, it risks stifling borrowing and slowing the economy further.
On the other hand, if the Fed lowers rates to stimulate the economy in the face of a potential slowdown, it threatens to boost spending and worsen inflation.
In recent weeks, Trump has dialed back some of his steepest tariffs, easing the costs imposed upon importers. Such companies typically pass along a share of the higher tax burden in the form of price hikes.
A tradeagreementbetween the U.S. andChinaslashed tit-for-tat tariffs between the world's two largest economies and triggered a surge in the stock market. Within days, Wall Street firmssoftenedtheir forecasts of a downturn.
The U.S.-China accord came weeks after the White House paused a large swath of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs targeting dozens of countries. Trump also eased sector-specific tariffs targeting autos and rolled back duties on some goods from Mexico and Canada.
Still, an across-the-board 10% tariff applies to nearly all imports, except for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and some other items. Those tariffs stand in legal limbo, however,after a pair of federal court rulings late last month.
Tariffs remain in place forsteel, aluminumand autos, as well as some goods from Canada and Mexico.
Warning signs point to the possibility of elevated prices over the coming months.
Nationwide retailers like Walmart and Best Buy havevoicedalarm about potential price hikes as a result of the levies.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD,saidthis month it expects U.S. inflation to reach 4% by the end of 2025, which would mark a sharp increase from current levels.
Powell has opted to leave rates unchanged as the Fed assesses the economic impact of tariffs.
"We don't think we need to be in a hurry," Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last month. "We think we can be patient."
