白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰说,一些正在与美国谈判的国家美国随着唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统达成贸易协议的最后期限临近,出于善意,关税可能会推迟。
在接受美国广播公司新闻节目“本周”主持人乔治·斯特凡诺普洛斯的采访时,米兰回避了正在进行的交易。
“在关税问题上,总统达成协议的最后期限正在临近。到目前为止,你只看到了三笔交易。接下来我们应该期待什么?”斯特凡诺普洛斯问道。
“我仍然乐观地认为,我们将在本周晚些时候达成一些交易。部分原因是因为所有的谈判都要经过一系列步骤,在最后期限前达到高潮,”米兰说。
当被问及如果这些其他交易未能通过,特朗普是否会延长最后期限时,米兰表示这是可能的。
他说:“嗯,我的期望是,那些本着诚意进行谈判并做出达成协议所需的让步的国家,但是协议还没有达成,因为它需要更多的时间,我的期望是,那些国家会有所进展,你知道,某种程度上来说,会有所进展。”。
当被问及哪些国家可能会看到这一日期的改变时,米兰拒绝详细说明,但他说他听到了与欧洲和美国谈判的好消息印度.
“我预计,一些正在做出让步的国家,你知道,可能会看到他们的日期被推迟。对于那些没有做出让步的国家,对于那些没有真诚谈判的国家,我预计他们会看到更高的关税,”米兰说。“但是,总统将在本周晚些时候和接下来的时间里决定,这些国家是否会像他们已经习惯的那样,尽一切努力进入美国市场。”
前财政部长拉里·萨默斯(Larry Summers)也加入了斯特凡诺普洛斯的行列,他对特朗普关税的潜在经济利益感到犹豫。
“它可能会以美国消费者通胀上升、美国生产商竞争力下降为代价获得一些收入,”萨默斯说。“因此,价格更高,竞争力更弱,相对于这个(预算)法案中给予非常富有的人的收入来说,收入并不多。”
以下是米兰和萨默斯采访中的更多亮点:
米兰在CBO估计川普的百万账单
斯特凡诺普洛斯:当CBO说大约1100多万人将会因为医疗补助削减而失去医疗保险时,我们为什么不应该相信他们呢?
米兰:因为他们过去一直都是错的。当共和党人在总统的第一个任期内废除减税和就业法案中的个人强制罚款时,CBO预测到2019年将有大约500万人失去他们的保险。你知道吗?这个数字根本没有显著变化。这只是其中的一小部分。所以,他们在过去是错的。看,如果我们不通过--如果我们不通过这个法案,800万到900万人肯定会失去他们的保险,这是历史上最大的税收法案造成的巨大衰退的结果。确保人们有保险的最好方法是发展经济,给他们工作,让他们工作,通过他们的雇主给他们保险。创造就业机会,创造繁荣的经济总是让人们获得保险的最佳方式。
米兰谈过去的减税
斯特凡诺普洛斯:你说这些都将加速增长。早在罗纳德·里根的时代,早在1981年,我们就已经看到了这方面的一些经验。他大幅减税。增长没有到来,他们不得不在此后的几年里提高税收。担心会再次发生?
米兰:就像我之前说的,你知道,历史站在我们这边。如果你看看总统第一个任期内发生的事情,增长飙升,但没有出现实质性的、有意义的长期收入下降。去年,税收占GDP的比例为17.1%,与减税和就业法案之前持平。因此,减税和就业法案带来了巨大的增长。收入没有出现重大的长期下降。企业收入占GDP的比重甚至从1.6%上升到了1.9%。以及实现的增长。我们期待这次会发生同样的事情。
萨默斯谈安全网的削减
斯特凡诺普洛斯:在本周的《纽约时报》上,你和曾任总统和财政部长的罗伯特·鲁宾称该法案为“危险的”,称其“对经济构成了巨大的风险。”这些风险是什么?
萨默斯:乔治,首先,你的人所描述的是美国安全网有史以来最大的削减。耶鲁预算实验室估计,它将在10年内杀死10万人。这是死亡的2000天,就像我们这个周末在德克萨斯州看到的那样。在我的70年里,我从来没有在7月4日为我的国家感到如此尴尬。这些更高的利率,这些电力补贴的削减,这些可用住房的减少,医院将不得不照顾这些人并将成本转嫁给其他人的事实,这将意味着更多的通货膨胀,更大的风险,美联储不得不提高利率,冒着经济衰退的风险,更多的滞胀,这是我们国家每个中产阶级家庭面临的风险,因为这个法案。为了什么?10年后,100万美元将分配给我们人口中的前十分之一。这是目前联邦资金的最高优先用途吗?我不这么认为。这是我们的国会和总统的可耻行为,将使我们的国家倒退。
萨默斯对经济增长的主张
斯特凡诺普洛斯:总统的部分论点是,该法案引发的经济增长将减轻你在这里谈到的危险。接下来是经济顾问委员会主席,他的委员会本周发布了一份报告,预计通过增长、提高税收和节省债务支付来减少11万亿美元的赤字。你对此有何回应?
萨默斯:恕我直言,这是一派胡言。我们谁也无法预测经济增长会发生什么。我们可以预测的是,当人们不得不持有政府债务,而不是将其投资于新的资本货物、新机器、新建筑时,这将降低经济的生产率。我们可以预测的是,当我们在研发上的投资减少,在学校上的投资减少,就会对经济增长产生负面影响。如果没有强有力的政治议程,任何地方的经济学家都不会说这个法案对经济有好处。压倒性的观点是,这可能会使经济变得更糟。这么想吧。世界上最大的债务国还能保持世界上最大的强国地位多久?这是我们有史以来以美元计价的最大的税收法案。
White House suggests some countries could see tariff deadline shifted
Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran said that some countries that are negotiating with theUnited Statesin good faith could see tariffs delayed as President Donald Trump’s deadline to strike trade deals closes in.
Speaking with ABC News' "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos, Miran hedged on what deals are in the works.
“On tariffs, the president's deadline is approaching for the deals. You've only seen three deals so far. What should we expect next?” Stephanopoulos asked.
“I'm still optimistic that we're going to get a number of deals later this week. Part of that is because all the negotiating goes through a series of steps that lead to a culmination timed with the deadline,” Miran said.
Pressed on if these other deals fail to come through and if Trump would extend the deadline, Miran indicated that could be possible.
“Well, my expectation would be that countries that are negotiating in good faith and making the concessions that they need to get to a deal, but the deal is just not there yet because it needs more time, my expectation will be that those countries get a roll, you know, sort of get the date rolled,” he said.
Asked which countries could see that date shifted, Miran refused to elaborate, but said that he has heard good things about talks with Europe andIndia.
“I would expect that a number of countries that are in the process of making those concessions, you know, they might see their date rolled. For the countries that aren't making concessions, for the countries that aren't negotiating in good faith, I would expect them to sort of see higher tariffs,” Miran said. “But again, the president will decide later this week and in the time following whether or not the countries are doing what it takes to get access to the American market like they've grown accustomed to.”
Stephanopolous was also joined by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who balked at the potential economic benefits of Trump’s tariffs.
“It probably will collect some revenue at the cost of higher inflation for American consumers, less competitiveness for American producers," Summers said. “So higher prices, less competitiveness, and not really that much revenue relative to what's being given to the very wealthy in this [budget] bill.”
Here are more highlights from Miran and Summers' interviews:
Miran on CBO estimates for Trump's megabill
Stephanopoulos:Why should we not believe the CBO when they say that something approaching a little more than 11 million people are going to be -- are going to lose their health care coverage because of the Medicaid cuts?
Miran:Well, because they've been wrong in the past. When Republicans repealed the individual mandate penalty during the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in the president's first term, CBO predicted that there was going to be about 5 million people losing their insurance by 2019. And you know what? The number was not very significantly changed at all. It was a tiny fraction of that. And so, they've been wrong in the past. And look, if we don't pass the -- if we didn't pass the bill, 8 to 9 million people would've lost their insurance for sure, as a result of the biggest tax act in history creating a huge recession. The best way to make sure people are insured is to grow the economy, get them jobs, get them working, get them insurance through their employer. Creating jobs, creating a booming economy is always the best way to get people insured.
Miran on past tax cuts
Stephanopoulos:You say this is all going to turbocharge growth. We have seen some experience with this back -- in Ronald Reagan's day, back in 1981. He had huge tax cuts. The growth didn't come, and they had to end up raising taxes for several years after that. Concerned that could happen again?
Miran:Well, like I said before, you know, history's on our side. If you look at what happened in the president's first term, growth soared and there was no real material, you know, meaningful long-term decline in revenue. Revenue as a share of GDP was 17.1% last year, the same as it was before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. So, you got this huge surge in growth as a result of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. There was no material long-term decline in revenue. Corporate revenue even went up as a share of GDP from 1.6 to 1.9%. And the growth delivered. And we expect the same thing to happen this time.
Summers on cuts to the safety net
Stephanopoulos:In The New York Times this week, you and Robert Rubin, who also served as president, as Treasury secretary, called this bill "dangerous," said it “posed a huge risk to the economy.” What are those risks?
Summers:George, just to start with, what your people have been describing is the biggest cut in the American safety net in history. The Yale Budget Lab estimates that it will kill, over 10 years, 100,000 people. That is 2,000 days of death like we've seen in Texas this weekend. In my 70 years, I’ve never been as embarrassed for my country on July Fourth.These higher interest rates, these cutbacks in subsidies to electricity, these reductions in the availability of housing, the fact that hospitals are going to have to take care of these people and pass on the costs to everybody else, and that's going to mean more inflation, more risk that the Fed has to raise interest rates and run the risk of recession, more stagflation, that's the risk facing every middle-class family in our country because of this bill. And for what? A million dollars over 10 years to the top tenth of a percent of our population. Is that the highest priority use of federal money right now? I don't think so. This is a shameful act by our Congress and by our president that is going to set our country back.
Summers on claims of economic growth
Stephanopoulos:Part of the president's argument is that economic growth sparked by the bill will alleviate the dangers that you talk about here. The chair of the Council of Economic Advisers is up next and his council issued a report this week projecting $11 trillion in deficit reduction from growth, higher tax revenue and savings on debt payments. How do you respond to that?
Summers:It is, respectfully, nonsense. None of us can forecast what's going to happen to economic growth. What we can forecast is that when people have to hold government debt instead of being able to invest it in new capital goods, new machinery, new buildings, that makes the economy less productive. What we can forecast is that when we're investing less in research and development, investing less in our schools, that there is a negative impact on economic growth. There is no economist anywhere, without a strong political agenda, who is saying that this bill is a positive for the economy. And the overwhelming view is that it is probably going to make the economy worse. Think about it this way. How long can the world's greatest debtor remain the world's greatest power? And this is piling more debt onto the economy than any piece of tax legislation in dollar terms that we have ever had.