2025年10月7日，美国总统唐纳德·川普(左)和加拿大总理马克·卡尼在白宫西翼外。
共和党叛逃者帮助克林奇通道;一段本周众议院的一项法案将推翻唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税加拿大是美国最大的贸易伙伴之一。
特朗普在国会山受到罕见的指责之际，白宫正在等待一个裁决;裁定最高法院对其最高关税的合法性，包括对加拿大商品的一些征税。
分析师表示，众议院的反关税投票可能会被证明是象征性的，因为这项措施在参议院面临挑战，并可能遭到特朗普的否决。但两党反对的表现可能反映了随着议员们临近中期选举，对征税的担忧日益加剧。
他们补充说，与此同时，最高法院在最早可能于本月做出的裁决中，对特朗普的许多标志性关税构成了生存风险。
以下是众议院投票后特朗普关税的下一步:
众议院反对加拿大关税的法案面临障碍
特朗普第二次上任几天后，他整齐的对加拿大商品征收25%的关税。8月，特朗普安装棘轮于将关税从25%提高到35%。这些税收不包括符合美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定或美国管理认证协会自由贸易协定的许多商品。
特朗普一再指责加拿大未能阻止芬太尼运入美国。他还尖锐批评加拿大设置的关税和其他贸易壁垒，他说这些壁垒使美国企业在向加拿大购物者销售时处于不利地位。
根据美国海关和边境巡逻队(CBP)的数据，在2024年9月至2025年4月期间，美国缉获的几乎所有芬太尼都来自墨西哥南部边境。CBP发现，不到1%的芬太尼在加拿大北部边境被查获。
星期三，房子投票以219票对211票废除特朗普对加拿大的关税，其中包括6名共和党人和几乎所有民主党人。这一微弱优势远未达到推翻总统否决所需的三分之二多数。
然而，预计民主党众议院议员将提出一系列反对其他税收的法案。
在周三晚上的一篇社交媒体帖子中，特朗普警告共和党人不要投票支持任何旨在推翻关税的措施。
“众议院或参议院的任何共和党人，投票反对关税将在选举期间严重遭受后果，这包括初选!”特朗普说。“关税给了我们巨大的国家安全，因为只要提到这个词，就有国家同意我们最强烈的愿望。”
一些接受美国广播公司新闻采访的分析师对众议院法案在共和党控制的参议院获得通过的可能性表示怀疑，或者，如果该法案获得通过，可以绕过特朗普的否决。他们表示，进一步的反关税提案将面临同样严峻的挑战。
弗吉尼亚大学政治中心创始人兼主任拉里·萨巴托告诉美国广播公司新闻说:“这些关税限制在众议院和参议院通过，并得到白宫批准的可能性为零。”。“这纯粹是象征性的。”
尽管如此，一些分析师认为，随着11月中期选举的临近，众议院两党投票是特朗普关税政策相关政治风险日益增加的信号。特朗普政府可能会在限制共和党在类似措施上的倒戈数量方面面临困难，特别是当日历经过初选时，特朗普的一些政治杠杆会被夺走。
欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)美国业务负责人克莱顿·艾伦(Clayton Allen)对美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)说，“白宫在这些关税投票中将越来越困难，”但他警告说，众议院不太可能获得绝对多数。
最高法院可能会对大量关税进行打击
最高法院决定预计本月将很快对特朗普的一大部分关税产生影响。对特朗普的裁决可能会取消他最严厉的关税，包括对加拿大的一些税收，无论反关税法案的立场如何。
在一个由小企业和保守派倡导团体组成的联盟就关税问题起诉政府后，大法官必须决定特朗普对几十个国家的深远征税是否在特朗普称为“的玫瑰园仪式上公布”解放日“遵守宪法和联邦法律。
此案还涉及对中国、墨西哥和加拿大征收的关税，以及对几乎所有进口商品征收的10%的基准关税。
特朗普还征收了特定行业的关税，包括钢铁、铝和汽车零部件，这影响了加拿大的进口，不会受到最高法院裁决的影响。
然而，这一裁决可能会影响数百亿美元的税收收入(可能必须偿还)，并改变与美国一些最大的贸易伙伴达成的贸易协议，包括英国和中国。
该案件的核心是特朗普前所未有地援引《国际经济紧急权力法》作为征收关税的法律依据。
1977年的法律允许总统停止与构成威胁的外国对手的所有交易，包括使用制裁和贸易禁运等工具。但该措施没有明确提到关税，将特朗普置于未经考验的法律领域。
“如果最高法院做出不利于唐纳德·特朗普的裁决，很多事情都变得没有意义，因为关税将不会生效，”德里纽约州立大学政治学和经济学教授彼得·布鲁索告诉美国广播公司新闻。
然而，布鲁索指出，保守派占多数的高等法院很可能做出有利于特朗普的裁决，让相关关税部分或完全不受影响。
“我们不知道闭门造车后发生了什么，”布鲁索说。
What's next after House rebukes Trump's tariffs on Canada?
Republican defectors helped clinchpassageof a House bill this week that would overturn President Donald Trump'stariffson Canada, one of the largest U.S. trade partners.
The rare rebuke of Trump on Capitol Hill comes as the White House awaits arulingfrom the Supreme Court on the lawfulness of its steepest tariffs, including some of the levies on Canadian goods.
The anti-tariff House vote will likely prove symbolic, since the measure faces challenging odds in the Senate and a potential veto from Trump, analysts said. But the show of bipartisan opposition may reflect growing concern about the levies as members approach the midterm elections.
The Supreme Court, meanwhile, poses an existential risk for many of Trump's signature tariffs in a ruling that could come as soon as this month, they added.
Here's what comes next for Trump's tariffs in the aftermath of the House vote:
House bill opposing Canada tariffs faces obstacles
Days after Trump took office for the second time, heordered25% tariffs on Canadian goods. In August, Trumpratchetedup the tariffs from 25% to 35%. Those levies exclude a host of goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.
Trump has repeatedly faulted Canada for its alleged failure to stop the transport of fentanyl into the U.S. He has also sharply criticized tariffs and other trade barriers erected by Canada that he says put U.S. businesses at a disadvantage when selling to Canadian shoppers.
Between September 2024 and April 2025, nearly all fentanyl seized by the U.S. came through the southern border with Mexico, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, or CBP. Less than 1% of fentanyl was seized at the northern border with Canada, CBP found.
On Wednesday, the Housevotedto repeal Trump's tariffs on Canada by a tally of 219 to 211, including six Republicans alongside nearly all Democrats. The narrow margin fell well short of the two-thirds majority that will e necessary to overcome a presidential veto.
However, Democratic House members are expected to propose a flurry of bills opposing other levies.
In a social media post on Wednesday night, Trump warned Republicans against voting in favor of any measure aimed at overturning tariffs.
"Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against TARIFFS will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!" Trump said. "TARIFFS have given us Great National Security because the mere mention of the word has Countries agreeing to our strongest wishes."
Some analysts who spoke to ABC News cast doubt on the likelihood of the House bill passing the Republican-controlled Senate or, if it were to prevail, circumventing a veto from Trump. Further anti-tariff proposals would face the same stiff odds, they said.
"There is zero chance that any of these tariff restrictions pass the House and Senate, and get a stamp from the White House," Larry Sabato, the founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told ABC News. "This is purely symbolic."
Still, some analysts characterized the bipartisan House vote as a signal of growing political risk associated with Trump's tariff policies as midterm elections approach in November. The Trump administration could face difficulty limiting the number of Republican defections on similar measures, especially when the calendar moves past the primaries, taking away some of Trump's political leverage.
"The White House will have an increasingly difficult time in these tariff votes," Clayton Allen, practice head for the United States at the Eurasia Group, told ABC News, but he cautioned that the House would be unlikely to achieve a veto-proof majority.
Supreme Court could strike a blow against a large swath of tariffs
A Supreme Courtdecisionexpected as soon as this month looms over a large swath of Trump's tariffs. A ruling against Trump could strike down his steepest tariffs, including some of the levies on Canada, regardless of where the anti-tariff bill stands.
After a coalition of small businesses and conservative advocacy groups sued the administration over the tariffs, the justices must decide whether Trump's far-reaching levies on dozens of countries unveiled in a Rose Garden ceremony that Trump dubbed "Liberation Day" comply with the Constitution and federal law.
The case also concerns tariffs imposed on China, Mexico and Canada, as well as a baseline 10% levy slapped on nearly all imports.
Trump has also imposed sector-specific tariffs -- including on steel, aluminum and auto parts — which affect Canadian imports and would not be affected by the Supreme Court decision.
However, the ruling could impact tens of billions in tax revenue -- that could have to be repaid -- and alter trade agreements struck with some of the largest U.S. trade partners, including the United Kingdom and China.
The case centers on Trump's unprecedented invocation of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act as a legal justification for tariffs.
The 1977 law allows the president to stop all transactions with a foreign adversary that poses a threat, including the use of tools like sanctions and trade embargoes. But the measure does not explicitly mention tariffs, putting Trump in untested legal territory.
"If the Supreme Court rules against Donald Trump, a lot of this does become moot because the tariffs won't be in effect," Peter Brusoe, a professor of political science and economics at the State University of New York at Delhi, told ABC News.
Brusoe noted, however, that the conservative-majority high court could very well decide in Trump's favor, leaving the relevant tariffs partially or fully intact.
"We have no idea what's going on behind closed doors," Brusoe said.
