美国最高法院近期裁定特朗普此前最严厉的关税措施违法，总统随即对几乎所有进口商品加征 15% 关税，并承诺推出一系列新举措。多位分析师向美国广播公司新闻(ABC News)表示，特朗普虽仍拥有关税征收权，但法律授权存在范围与期限限制，这一高风险政策工具的未来走向充满不确定性。 市场震荡与总统强硬表态 周一，市场因关税政策不确定性遭遇抛售，道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌近 700 点(跌幅 1.4%)，标普 500 指数下跌 1%，科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下挫 1.1%。德意志银行研究策略师吉姆・里德在致客户备忘录中直言：“不确定性依然很大。”
特朗普周一在社交媒体发文，坚称自己拥有征收关税的权力，无需国会批准即可加征新贸易税，并警告其他国家可能面临 “更高关税、更糟后果”。此前一天，美国贸易代表杰米森・格里尔在接受 ABC《本周》节目采访时也誓言重启贸易壁垒，称 “总统多年来一直以关税政策、保护美国产业为竞选主张，政策从未改变”，并透露白宫计划 “重建” 被最高法院推翻的、针对特定国家的一系列强硬关税。 最高法院裁决：IEPPA 授权被否定 最高法院 2 月 20 日裁定，《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEPPA)未授权特朗普征收关税，直接导致其去年 4 月 2 日(自称 “解放日”)推出的大规模关税及一系列相关措施失效。 特朗普仍可动用的法律工具 1. 《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条：临时全球关税 特朗普保留依据该条款加征关税的权力，可对几乎所有进口商品征收最高 15% 关税，期限最长 150 天。该条款允许白宫应对 “严重且大规模” 的国际收支逆差，或 “防止美元即将大幅贬值”。
最高法院裁决当天，特朗普宣布依据第 122 条签署行政令，对全球加征 10% 关税;次日将税率上调至 15%。耶鲁预算实验室测算，若此前 IEPPA 关税得以保留，美国实际关税税率将维持 16%;而当前第 122 关税下，实际税率为 13.7%。该机构还预计，150 天内，第 122 关税将使美国家庭平均额外支出 800 美元;若要延长该全面关税，特朗普必须获得国会批准。参议院少数党领袖查克・舒默已表示，民主党将反对延期，这可能使特朗普无法获得克服参议院阻挠议事所需的 60 票支持。 2. 《1974 年贸易法》第 301 条：针对不公平贸易 格里尔称，白宫计划援引该条款加征关税。第 301 条授权美国贸易代表办公室在调查认定他国存在 “不合理、歧视性、加重美国负担” 的行为后，由总统加征关税。特朗普政府拟重点审查与强迫劳动、药品定价、歧视美国科技企业相关的外国政策，以及海鲜、大米等特定商品贸易，关税可能覆盖 “多数贸易伙伴”。
卡托研究所 2024 年分析指出，第 301 条关税范围与期限相对灵活，但白宫需每 4 年重新授权;该条款虽有少量实体与程序限制，但赋予总统广泛自由裁量权，可针对目标国进口商品加征关税或实施其他贸易限制。 3. 《1962 年贸易扩展法》第 232 条：国家安全关税
特朗普政府计划保留依据该条款征收的行业特定关税，并推进待决调查以加征新关税。第 232 条允许白宫以国家安全为由加征关税，但需先经商务部调查。特朗普已依据该条款对钢铁、铝加征 50% 关税，还对铜、汽车及卡车征税;商务部针对药品、飞机、风力涡轮机、电影及部分半导体的第 232 调查仍在进行中。
特朗普周五在白宫表示，将启动更多调查以加征新关税，坦言 “流程会更久，我本想简化，但他们不允许”。
What's next for Trump's tariffs? Experts explain
President Donald Trumpslappeda 15% tariff on nearly all imports and promised a flurry of additional measures in response to the recent Supreme Court ruling thatstruck downhis steepest levies.
What legal authority remains for Trump to levy tariffs, however, places limits on the scope and duration of those duties, casting uncertainty over the path forward for the high-stakes policy tool, some analysts told ABC News.
A Monday selloffhammeredstocks as investors grappled with the unrest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 700 points, or 1.4%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.1%.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty,” Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, declared in a memo to clients on Monday.
In a social media post on Monday, Trump affirmed what he said was his authority to issue tariffs, saying he does not need to consult Congress before erecting new trade levies. Trump also reiterated his commitment to his policy approach, warning other countries that they may face a “much higher Tariff, and worse.”
The president's remarks came a day after U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer vowed to revive trade barriers in an interview withABC News’ “This Week.”
“The president has been campaigning on tariffs and protecting American industry for many years,” Greer told ABC News on Sunday. “The policy hasn’t changed.”
The White House announced plans to “reconstruct” an aggressive set of country-specific levies that were invalidated by the Supreme Court, Greer added.
The high court ruled in their February 20 decision that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEPPA) does not authorize Trump to impose levies, nullifying a major swathe of tariffs issued by the president on April 2 of last year, which he dubbed "Liberation Day," and a host of other measures.
Trump retains the power to levy additional sector- or country-specific tariffs. He can also impose a 15% tariff on nearly all imports for up to 150 days under Section 122 of theTrade Act of 1974.
The law allows the White House to address "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficits, or disparities between a country's total payments in transactions with other nations and its total earnings. Under the measure, the president can also impose levies to "prevent an imminent and significant depreciation of the dollar."
Hours after the Supreme Court ruling on Friday, Trump said he would sign an executive order enacting a new 10% "global tariff," invoking authority under Section 122. On Saturday, Trump escalated the tariff to 15%.
If the Supreme Court had opted to uphold tariffs issued under IEPPA, the nation's effective tariff rate would have remained at 16%, theYale Budget Labsaid on Saturday. Taking into account the Section 122 tariffs, the effective tariff rate now stands at 13.7%, the group said.
The Section 122 tariffs will result in price increases amounting to $800 in additional costs for an average U.S. household over the next 150 days, the Yale Budget Lab projected. In order to extend the across-the-board 15% tariff beyond that time window, Trump would need to secure Congressional approval.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Monday that Democrats would oppose an extension of Section 122 tariffs, which could deny Trump the 60 votes necessary to overcome a potential Senate filibuster.
The White House plans to invoke additional tariff authorities, Greer said in astatementon Friday, citingSection 301of the Trade Act of 1974. That statute allows Trump to issue tariffs against nations after an investigation by the Office of the United States Trade Representative finds they have engaged in “unjustifiable, unreasonable, discriminatory, and burdensome acts,” Greer said.
The Trump administration plans to scrutinize foreign policies tied to forced labor, pharmaceutical pricing practices, alleged discrimination against U.S. technology firms, and trade in certain goods like seafood and rice, Greer added, noting the levies could apply to “most trading partners.”
The scope and duration of Section 301 tariffs are fairly open-ended, though the White House must reauthorize the levies every four years, according to a 2024 analysis by the right-leaningCato Institute.
“Section 301 contains some minor substantive and procedural checks, but it does grant the president wide discretion to address foreign economic policies by imposing tariffs or other trade restrictions on a very wide set of products imported from a targeted country or countries,” the Cato Institute report said.
The Trump administration also plans to maintain sector-specific tariffs imposed underSection 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962and conclude pending investigations that could authorize additional levies, Greer said. That statute permits the White House to levy tariffs on products of importance to national security. Under the law, the White House must await the result of an investigation undertaken by the Commerce Department before imposing a tariff.
Trump has imposed a 50% tariff onsteel and aluminumunder Section 232, as well as levies on copper, automobiles and trucks. Commerce Department investigations under Section 232 remain ongoing for an array of goods, including pharmaceutical drugs, aircraft, wind turbines, movies, and some semiconductors.
Speaking at the White House on Friday, Trump vowed to initiate further investigations as a means of imposing additional tariffs.
"It's a little longer process," Trump said. "I tried to make things simple but they wouldn’t let us do that.”
