今年 6 月，美军向伊朗三大核设施投下十余枚重型钻地弹与战斧导弹。数小时后，特朗普便向全国宣布，此次行动是 “辉煌的军事胜利”。
“伊朗的关键核浓缩设施已被彻底、完全摧毁。” 特朗普在全国讲话中称。五角大楼也附和这一评估，发言人肖恩・帕内尔 7 月对记者表示：“(伊朗核计划)被推迟了一到两年，我认为更接近两年。”
如今 8 个月过去，特朗普却再度考虑对伊朗实施军事打击，而政府对行动目标的解释却前后不一。近几周，他一方面称要阻止伊朗近期对抗议者的血腥镇压(他声称镇压已因他的要求停止)，另一方面又表示要遏制伊朗的弹道导弹库与核计划。
上周，特朗普给伊朗 15 天时间，要求其签署协议、永久禁止铀浓缩。伊朗外长阿拉格齐断然拒绝，称伊朗有权发展核计划，且该计划完全用于和平目的。
本周末，特朗普特使史蒂夫・维特科夫在福克斯新闻采访中称，局势紧急是因为伊朗已 “危险地接近” 拥有足够制造核弹的高浓缩铀。“他们可能一周内就能获得工业级的造核材料，这太危险了，绝不能允许。”
但分析人士与国际核查人员指出，伊朗高浓缩铀问题数月来一直令人担忧，且卫星图像显示伊朗正试图重建核设施。由于伊朗在 6 月空袭后拒绝国际核查人员进入相关地点，其核计划的真实状况至今不明。
当被问及为何对数月前宣称已 “摧毁” 的核计划，如今却急于逼伊朗签协议时，一名白宫官员回应：“总统明确表示，伊朗绝不能拥有核武器或造核能力，也绝不能进行铀浓缩。”
去年夏天，美国国防情报局一份早期机密评估显示，美军轰炸的三处核设施并未被完全摧毁，大量核材料虽被掩埋但完好无损。联合国国际原子能机构总干事格罗西 2 月接受法国 TF1 电视台采访时也表示，他认为伊朗遭袭地点的高浓缩铀库存大概率仍在。“部分铀浓缩材料可能更难获取，但材料仍在那里。” 据该机构估算，美军空袭后，约 972 磅高浓缩铀下落不明。
分析人士认为，更关键的问题是伊朗政权是否已决定加速推进核武器研发。国际科学与安全研究所近期分析称，伊朗政权决定造核武的概率约为 40% 至 50%;即便决定推进，短期内成功造核的概率也不到 15%，长期则为 42%。报告指出：“战争摧毁了伊朗的气体离心机项目与大部分核武化设施，但重要残余物与技术知识仍在，可成为小型离心机浓缩与核武化能力的核心。”
美国广播公司新闻上周证实，特朗普正考虑的选项包括：对伊朗实施有限打击以迫其谈判;若无效，则可能发动持续军事行动以推翻伊朗政权 —— 该行动或持续数周，且会危及驻中东 3 万至 4 万名美军的安全。
周一，特朗普反驳媒体有关其最高军事顾问丹・凯恩将军私下警告 “弹药不足、盟友支持不够，可能危及美军” 的报道。他在社交平台发文称：“凯恩将军和我们所有人一样，不希望战争，但如果决定对伊朗动武，他认为美军将轻松取胜。”
一名美国官员透露，伊朗预计于周二前提交新的核计划提案，为周四维特科夫牵头的日内瓦新一轮谈判做准备。此次将是美伊第二轮间接谈判，由阿曼与卡塔尔作为中间人传递信息。
以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周一在议会演讲中威胁伊朗：若伊朗袭击以色列，“我们将以其无法想象的力量反击”。“没人知道明天会怎样，我们保持警惕，已做好应对一切的准备。”
Trump weighs strikes against Iran for nuclear program he says he 'obliterated'
Hours after the U.S. military dropped more than a dozen heavy bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk missiles on three ofIran's major nuclear facilitiesin June, President Donald Trump declared the operation a "spectacular military success."
"Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated," Trump said in an address to the nation.
The Pentagon backed up Trump's assessment.
"It's delayed by one to two years. I think we're thinking probably closer to two years," chief spokesperson Sean Parnell told reporters in July.
Now, eight months later, the president is once again weighing military strikes against Iran with the administration providing shifting explanations on the goals.In recent weeks, Trump has said he wanted to stop Tehran's recentdeadly crackdown on protestors-- which he said ended at his behest -- as well to curb Iran's ballistic missile arsenal and its nuclear program.
Last week, Trump gave Iran 15 days to cut a deal that would prohibit Iran from enriching uranium. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi refused, saying the country has the right to a nuclear program, which he says is for peaceful purposes.
This weekend, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff suggested the urgency has to do with Iran being dangerously close to obtaining enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb.
"They're probably a week away from having industrial-grade, bomb-making material, and that's really dangerous. So, [we] can't have that," Witkoff said in an interview with Fox News that aired on Saturday.
But analysts and international inspectors say Iran's access to highly enriched uranium has been a concern for several months already, along with satellite imagery suggesting that Iran is trying to rebuild. An exact picture of Iran's nuclear program is unclear because Iran blocked international inspectors from accessing the sites after the June bombing.
When asked why the president is focusing on cutting an urgent deal on a nuclear program he says he obliterated months ago, a White House official said "the President has been clear that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons or the capacity to build them, and that they cannot enrich uranium."
Last summer, an early classified assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency concluded the three nuclear sites bombed by the U.S. weren't completely destroyed, leaving much of the materials buried but intact.
Likewise, Rafael Grossi, head of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, said in a February interview with the French television network TFI that he believes much Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium likely remains at the sites bombed by the U.S.
According to a translation, Grossi said "some of it [the enriched uranium] may be less accessible, but the material is still there."
The IAEA estimates that some 972 pounds of highly enriched uranium remained unaccounted for following the U.S. bombing.
Analysts say a more critical question about Iran is whether the regime has made a decision on how quickly to move toward trying to build a bomb.
In arecent analysis,the Institute for Science and International Security estimated the current probability that the Iranian regime would decide to build a nuclear weapon at 40 to 50 percent.
If Iran decides to move ahead, the group says, its success in building a weapon would probably be even lower -- less than 15% in a short period of time, and 42% over a longer timeframe.
"The war saw the destruction of its gas centrifuge program and much of its nuclear weaponization facilities," according to the group's analysis.
"Nonetheless, important remnants and knowledge remain that could form the core of small gas centrifuge enrichment and nuclear weaponization capabilities," the report added.
ABC News confirmed last week that among the options Trump is considering is a limited strike against Iran to force its hand negotiating. If that doesn't work, Trump could pursue a possible sustained military operation intended to topple the regime -- a campaign that could last weeks and pose risks to the 30,000 to 40,000 U.S. troops stationed in the region, experts say.
Trump pushed back Monday against media reports that his top military adviser, Gen. Dan Caine, privately cautioned that a lack of munitions and support from allies could pose risks to U.S. troops.
"General Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won," Trump posted on his social media platform.
According to a U.S. official, Tehran was expected to offer a new nuclear proposal by Tuesday ahead of another round of negotiations in Geneva led by Witkoff on Thursday.The meeting would be the second round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, with Omanis and Qataris passing notes between the delegations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened Iran during a speech to the Knesset on Monday, warning the Iranian ayatollah if Iran strikes Israel, "we will respond with a force they cannot even imagine," according to remarks of his speech google translated from Hebrew to English.
"No one knows what the day will bring. We are vigilant, we are prepared for any scenario," Netanyahu said.
