美联储举行利率周三在美以关系以来的首次会议上保持稳定战争伊朗推高了汽油价格，并有可能引发更大范围的通货膨胀。
央行此举标志着自2026年初以来，央行连续第二次选择将利率维持在当前水平。在此之前，美联储连续三次降息0.25个百分点。周三的决定符合市场预期。
“中东局势的发展对美国经济的影响不确定，”美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三在一份声明中表示。
这一利率决定似乎让华尔街本已悲惨的交易日雪上加霜。道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌768点，跌幅1.6%，而标准普尔500指数收盘下跌1.5%&标普500下跌1.3%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数下跌1.4%。
FOMC发布预测，预计在2026年剩余时间内降息25个基点，并在2027年再次降息25个基点。
由12名成员组成的理事会以11比1的投票结果维持了目前的利率水平。最近加入董事会的前特朗普政府官员斯蒂芬·米兰(Stephen Miran)投了唯一的反对票。他呼吁降低利率。
高尚的价格上涨恰逢经济增长放缓，有可能加剧被称为“双重经济打击”的经济滞胀，“这给美联储带来了困难。
根据美联储青睐的个人消费支出指数，2月份通胀率为2.8%。价格涨幅比美联储2%的目标利率高出近一个百分点。
美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三在华盛顿特区的新闻发布会上表示，“这些高企的数据在很大程度上反映了商品行业的通胀，这种通胀受到了关税的影响。”
鲍威尔补充说:“最近几周，通胀预期的短期措施已经上升，可能反映了中东供应中断导致的油价大幅上涨。”
如果美联储选择降低借贷成本，可能会刺激经济增长，但会带来更高的通胀风险。另一方面，选择加息可能会减缓价格上涨，但增加了经济表现降温的可能性。
基准利率在3.5%至3.75%之间。这一数字标志着从2023年达到的近期峰值大幅下降，但借贷成本仍远高于新冠肺炎疫情开始时设定的0%利率。
上周黯淡的就业报告表现美国经济在2月份失去了92，000个就业岗位，这标志着劳动力市场的命运逆转，并抹去了2026年记录的大部分就业增长。
BLS称，失业率从1月份的4.3%上升到2月份的4.4%。以历史标准来看，失业率仍然很低。
上周政府对国内生产总值(GDP)的修订报告表现在2025年的最后三个月，经济以0.7%的缓慢年化速度增长。
这些经济逆风有助于在与伊朗的战争爆发前创造条件，战争导致油价飙升，并有可能导致大量柴油运输商品涨价。
美国原油价格周三升至每桶约97美元，较一个月前飙升逾50%。
据报道，自军事冲突开始以来，截至周三，美国天然气价格上涨了86美分，平均每加仑3.84美元美国汽车协会.
周三的利率决定标志着自联邦法官以来的首次此类行动堵塞的根据一份未公开的法庭意见，司法部在确定政府“基本上没有提供任何证据”来支持对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔进行刑事调查后，向美联储董事会发出传票。
“大量证据表明，政府向董事会送达了这些传票，以迫使其主席投票决定降低利率或辞职，”美国地区法官詹姆斯·博斯伯格(James Boasberg)周五在他的意见中表示。
美国代理检察官珍妮·皮尔罗抨击博阿斯伯格是一名“激进主义”法官，并承诺对他的裁决提起上诉。
Fed holds interest rates steady in 1st move since Iran war spiked oil prices
The Federal Reserve heldinterest ratessteady on Wednesday at its first meeting since the U.S.-Israeliwarwith Iran drove up gasoline prices and risked a wider bout of inflation.
The central bank's move marked the second consecutive time it has opted to maintain interest rates at current levels since the outset of 2026. Before that, the Fed cut interest rates a quarter-point three straight times. The decision on Wednesday matched market expectations.
"The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain," the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a policymaking body at the Fed, said in a statement on Wednesday.
The rate decision appeared to worsen an already-woeful trading day on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 768 points, or 1.6%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.4%.
The FOMC issued a forecast projecting a one quarter-point interest rate cut over the remainder of 2026 and another quarter-point cut in 2027.
The 12-member board voted 11-1 to maintain the current level of interest rates. Stephen Miran, a former Trump administration official who recently joined the board, cast the lone dissenting vote. He called for a rate cut.
Elevatedprice increaseshave coincided with a slowdown of economic growth, threatening to intensify an economic double-whammy known as "stagflation," which poses difficulty for the Fed.
Inflation stood at 2.8% in February, according to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the gauge preferred by the Fed. Price increases register nearly a percentage point higher than the Fed's target rate of 2%.
"These elevated readings largely reflect inflation in the goods sector, which has been boosted by the effects of tariffs," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday.
"Near-term measures of inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks, likely reflecting the substantial rise in oil prices caused by the supply disruptions in the Middle East," Powell added.
If the Fed opts to lower borrowing costs, it could spur growth but risk higher inflation. On the other hand, the choice to raise interest rates may slow price increases but raises the likelihood of a cooldown in economic performance.
The benchmark rate stands at a level between 3.5% and 3.75%. That figure marks a significant drop from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A lackluster jobs report last weekshowedthe U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, which marked a reversal of fortunes for the labor market and erased most of the job gains recorded in 2026.
The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% in January to 4.4% in February, the BLS said. Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
A revised government report last week on gross domestic product (GDP)showedthe economy grew at a sluggish annualized pace of 0.7% over the final three months of 2025.
Those economic headwinds helped set the conditions before the outbreak of war with Iran, which spiked oil prices and risked price increases for a host of diesel-fuel transported goods.
U.S. crude oil prices rose to about $97 per barrel on Wednesday, marking a surge of more than 50% since a month earlier.
Since the military conflict began, U.S. gas prices have gone up 86 cents to an average of $3.84 per gallon as of Wednesday, according toAAA.
The rate decision on Wednesday marked the first such move since a federal judgeblockedJustice Department subpoenas to the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors after determining the government "produced essentially zero evidence" to support a criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, according to an unsealed court opinion.
"A mountain of evidence suggests that the Government served these subpoenas on the Board to pressure its Chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning," U.S. District Judge James Boasberg said in his opinion on Friday.
Acting U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro blasted Boasberg as an "activist" judge and pledged to appeal his ruling.
