美国能源部长克里斯·赖特星期天说，经过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输“已经恢复正常”,此前美国和伊朗签署了一项初步协议，重新开放这条重要的水道谈判者花了接下来的两个月试图解决尚未解决的核问题。
“我已经很久没有预测石油或汽油价格了，但它们将继续下跌。赖特在美国广播公司新闻节目“本周”中说:“通过海峡的石油和天然气流动已经恢复正常，无论与伊朗人的谈判发生什么，他们都将继续保持这种状态。”“美国的产量在增长，委内瑞拉的产量也在激增。我们与世界上所有其他能源生产商都有合作。所以，我认为美国人可以期待能源价格的持续下跌。”
美国和伊朗领导人上周签署了一份谅解备忘录，这似乎打破了霍尔木兹海峡长达数月的僵局，该航道位于海湾地区，全球约20%的石油供应通常通过该航道进入市场。根据Gas Buddy的数据，5月份能源价格飙升，美国天然气价格平均为每加仑4.56美元。在协议达成之前，油价一直在下跌，此后跌幅更大，截至周日上午，平均价格为每加仑3.88美元。
目前还不清楚交通是否像赖特声称的那样已经恢复到战前水平。美国中央司令部周六表示，“55艘商船通过(该海峡)，向全球市场运送了大量货物和超过1700万桶石油。”
根据世界贸易组织的数据，在战前的整个二月，每天有50至100艘原油和液化天然气船只通过该海峡。
海事情报公司Kpler周四表示，“每日海上交通明显增加”，当天有25艘船只双向通过该海峡，其中包括悬挂沙特国旗的油轮，装载600万桶原油。据《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)报道，Kpler表示，周六只有20艘船只穿越了海峡，这一数字远远低于中央司令部的报告。
副总统万斯、美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和总统女婿贾里德·库什纳目前正在瑞士卢塞恩与伊朗官员进行备忘录签署以来的首次谈判。
备忘录签署后，美国立即同意免除对伊朗石油行业的制裁，这是十多年来伊朗第一次能够在没有任何重大限制的情况下向全球市场出售石油。
赖特在接受《本周》主持人乔纳森·卡尔的采访时淡化了这件事的重要性。
“哦，在过去47年的大部分时间里，伊朗人一直在出售石油，”他说。“他们得到的只是再次出售石油的能力。我们向他们证明了两个月，我们可以停止他们出售一滴石油，这是重要的杠杆。现在这将回到原来的位置，但他们不会释放任何其他资金，释放他们自己的冻结资金，除非核谈判取得进展，有意义的和可证明的进展。”
在周日进行的谈判中，赖特表示，“坦率的对话将阐明伊朗的目标是什么，以及他们认为他们可能必须做出的权衡是什么。”
赖特谈到伊朗人时说:“他们没有以前在谈判中一直拥有的优势。
但是这个海峡可能仍然是伊朗人的一个筹码。尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)明确表示，伊朗不会在霍尔木兹海峡征收通行费——即使超过最初协议中明确规定的60天期限——但伊朗官员谈到了新的“费用”，称根据备忘录，伊朗有权征收这些费用。
特朗普周三表示，如果水道继续被封锁，他“不希望看到经济灾难”，随着全球供应减少，能源成本可能会进一步飙升。
“我不想成为的总统是已故的伟大的赫伯特·胡佛。我不想那样，谁知道会发生什么，”特朗普说，他指的是1929年大萧条开始时在任的总统。
赖特在“本周”节目中表示，特朗普明白这场战争将对全球能源市场产生的影响。
“听着，总统一直被告知，尽管媒体宣称，以军事方式让伊朗人参与他们的核计划存在巨大的能源流动风险。但他就是不愿意把这个问题留给拥有核武器的伊朗的继任者。对能源价格和世界经济来说，没有比拥有核武器的伊朗更大的风险了。“他知道自己会在短期内推高能源价格。无论如何，他都有勇气采取行动，摧毁他们的空军、海军、大部分核计划和许多军事工业综合体。”
特朗普在2月28日宣布对伊朗进行初步打击时表示，美国“将摧毁他们的导弹，并将他们的导弹工业夷为平地。”周三，他似乎改变了主意，他说:“弹道导弹和我们正在谈论的、我们早先谈论的不是一回事。但如果沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔，他们都有一些，我会说在相对比例上，我认为，没关系。”
“我们怎么会从说战争的目的是摧毁他们的导弹计划变成说他们有权拥有导弹?为什么要改变?”卡尔催促道。
“嗯，看，我觉得这是个度的问题。我们可能已经降低了他们90%的导弹制造能力。这是一个巨大的-我想你可以称之为他们导弹制造工业的毁灭。但是总统认识到，如果他们成为一个正常的国家，成为海湾国家的公民，就像他所说的那样，拥有与邻国相称的适量导弹，这不是一个不合理的目标。
Energy secretary forecasts more price declines, says oil traffic through strait already back to 'normal'
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said Sunday that oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is "already back to normal" after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to reopen the critical waterway whilenegotiators spend the next two monthstrying to work out yet-to-be-resolved nuclear issues.
"I'm long out of the business of predicting oil or gasoline prices, but they will continue to head down. Flows of oil and natural gas through the straits have already returned to normal, and they will continue that way whatever happens with the negotiations with the Iranians," Wright said on ABC News' "This Week." "We've got growing American production, surging production in Venezuela. We've got cooperation with all the other energy producers of the world. So, I think Americans can expect continued declines in energy prices."
U.S. and Iranian leaders signed a memorandum of understanding last week that appears to have broken the months-long stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway in the Gulf region through which around 20% of the global oil supply normally transits to enter the market. Energy prices spiked in May, with U.S. gas prices averaging $4.56 per gallon over the month, according to Gas Buddy. Prices had been falling before the agreement was reached, and have fallen more since, averaging $3.88 per gallon as of Sunday morning.
It's unclear if traffic has resumed to its pre-war level as Wright claimed. U.S. Central Command said on Saturday, "55 merchant ships transited [that strait], moving large amounts of cargo and more than 17 million barrels of oil to global markets."
Throughout February, before the war, between 50 and 100 shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait each day, according to the World Trade Organization.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler said Thursday there has been a "notable increase in daily maritime traffic" with 25 vessels passing through the strait in both directions that day, including Saudi-flagged tankers carrying 6 million barrels of crude oil. According to the Washington Post, Kpler said only 20 ships had crossed the strait on Saturday, a significantly lower number than what CENTCOM reported.
Vice President JD Vance, along with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, is currently in Lucerne, Switzerland, for the first negotiations with Iranian officials since the memo's signing.
Immediately upon signing the memorandum, the U.S. agreed to waive sanctions on Iran's oil industry, giving Iran the ability to sell oil to the global market without any significant restrictions for the first time in over a decade.
Wright downplayed the significance in his interview with "This Week" co-anchor Jonathan Karl.
"Oh, Iranians have been selling oil most of the last 47 years," he said. "That's all they're getting, is the ability to yet sell their oil again. We proved to them for two months we could cease them from selling a drop of oil, and that's important leverage. Now that's going to return back to where it was, but they're not going to get any of the other funds released, their own frozen funds released, unless there's progress, meaningful and provable progress in the nuclear talks."
On the negotiations underway Sunday, Wright said the "candid dialogue will set out what the Iranian goals are and what they think the tradeoffs they might have to make are."
"They don't have the leverage they've always had in talks before," Wright said of the Iranians.
But the strait may still be a point of leverage for the Iranians. While President Donald Trump has said definitively that Iran will not impose tolls in the Strait of Hormuz -- even beyond the 60-day period explicitly specified in the initial agreement -- Iranian officials have talked about new "fees" that it says it has the right to impose under the memorandum.
Trump said Wednesday that he "didn't want to see economic catastrophe" if the chokehold in the waterway continued, prompting energy costs to likely skyrocket more as global supply dwindled.
"The one president I did not want to be was the late, great Herbert Hoover. I didn't want that and who knows what would have happened," Trump said, referring to the president who was in office when the Great Depression began in 1929.
Wright said on "This Week" that Trump understood the impact the war would have on the global energy market.
"Look, the president has been advised all along, despite the media proclamations, that there was enormous risk to energy flows to engage the Iran’s -- the Iranians on their nuclear program in a military fashion. But he simply was unwilling to leave to his successor in nuclear-armed Iran. That's just, there's just no greater risk to energy prices, to the economy of the world, than in nuclear-armed Iran," Wright said. "He knew he was going to drive up energy prices in the short run. He had the courage to take the action anyway, to destroy their air force, their navy, most of their nuclear program, and a lot of their military-industrial complex."
When he announced the initial strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, Trump said the U.S. was "going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground." On Wednesday, he appears to change his mind, saying: "A ballistic missile is not the same thing as what we're talking about, what we talked to earlier. But if Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and they all have some, I would say in relative proportion, I think, it's okay."
"How did we go from saying that the objective of the war was to destroy their missile program to saying that they've got a right to have missiles? Why the change?" Karl pressed.
"Well, look, I think it's a matter of degrees. We've probably degraded their ability to make missiles by 90%. That is a massive -- I think you could call that an obliteration of their missile-making industry. But the president recognizes, if they have -- if they become a normal nation, and they become a citizen of the Gulf community, for them to have a modest amount of missiles, as he said, proportional to their neighbors, that’s not -- that's not an unreasonable end to aim for," Wright said.
