唐纳德・特朗普总统向国会提出，要重启在伊朗的军事行动。众议院议长迈克・约翰逊正全力推动立法，筹措资金支撑这场持续 138 天的战事。由于民主党方面普遍反对这场冲突，相关法案只能走特殊立法程序，完全依靠共和党议员投票推进。
然而共和党在众议院仅有微弱多数席位，且众议院共和党党团内部早已传出不满与担忧声音。这份第三轮预算协调法案(协调法案 3.0)，或将让约翰逊的多数派地位遭遇前所未有的考验;但如果闯关成功，也能在今年秋季中期选举到来前，为共和党拿下一场关键胜利。
什么是预算协调程序?
周四，众议院预算委员会按照党派立场投票，以 20 票赞成、14 票反对推进共和党预算决议案，也就是约翰逊所称《保障与保护法案》，这也是 “协调法案 3.0” 漫长立法流程的第一道关卡。该决议案接下来将提交众议院全院审议。
预算协调是美国国会一项特殊立法工具，可用来推进税收、法定支出、债务上限等领域存在争议的党派法案。借助这套程序，参议院通过法案所需门槛从 60 票超级多数降至简单多数即可生效。这套机制通常适用于同一政党同时掌控白宫、参众两院的时期 —— 当下共和党正处于这一局面，法案无需跨党派合作。
方案核心内容是什么?
众议院共和党领导层周三公布 “协调法案 3.0” 预算框架，计划推出总额 950 亿美元的一揽子拨款方案，资金用于国防与情报开支、农业补贴以及选举制度改革相关立法《保护美国选民资格法案》。方案要求众议院四个委员会分头起草法案条文，最终整合为单一法案提交表决。
框架计划最多拨付 600 亿美元军事经费、130 亿美元情报预算，合计 730 亿美元，用于支撑伊朗战事。美国国防部预警，现有资金已经不足以维持当地军事行动。方案同时争取同步落地《保护美国选民资格法案》相关条款，并配套 120 亿美元农业补贴。法案并未要求各委员会设计对应的资金抵扣方案，也就是没有安排削减其他开支来平衡新增支出。
众议院即将进入为期五周夏季休会前最后一周立法窗口期，共和党领导层目标是下周就这项预算决议案举行全院投票。
议长已经遭遇党内阻力
尽管共和党领导层全速推进，但多名众议员对这份预算方案心存顾虑，主要矛盾集中在法案没有配套削减开支或资金抵扣措施，相当于单纯扩大赤字支出。
共和党众议员沃伦・戴维森直言：“一份没有资金抵扣安排的法案，从一开始就注定行不通。坦率来说，只要三名共和党议员倒戈，法案就无法通过，眼下这种情况很有可能出现。”
全员出席投票的前提下，约翰逊最多只能承受三名共和党议员反对，一旦超过，共和党微弱多数优势就将失守。
副总统 J.D. 万斯周三闭门召集共和党议员开会，争取党内支持。领导层寄希望于把选举诚信相关条款纳入法案，平息党内对于缺乏资金抵扣条款的不满。
会后万斯对媒体表示：“推动这项立法，一方面是落地《保护美国选民资格法案》，当然也能向美军将士与农场主提供关键支持。我们选择这条路径，是认为这是同时实现三大目标的最佳方式。”
但万斯的斡旋难以打消持反对意见议员的疑虑。
戴维森补充道：“问题核心在于没有想好钱从哪里来。既然这件事被列为优先事项，那为什么不优先规划资金来源?”
预算委员会另一名共和党议员劳埃德・斯穆克同样希望方案配套预算抵扣措施，不过他也认可共和党领导层提出的支出项目具备重要性。 “我们很多人都希望看到资金抵扣安排，但同时也认为这些支出方向至关重要。” 斯穆克表示。
众议院共和党一名高层助理解释，方案为何没有配套削减赤字或压缩开支的抵扣条款： “摆在面前的不是‘这个方案，或者什么都不做’二选一，而是‘这份方案，或是理论上规模更大、同样没有资金来源的支出方案’。即便如此，我相信党内所有人，包括立场最坚定的财政保守派，都清楚这笔拨款的重要意义。”
独立众议员凯文・基利日常与共和党团协同议事，他的选票纳入共和党多数票仓统计。基利对这份预算方案持怀疑态度，原因是立法全程排除民主党参与，他认为这类议题本应两党共同协商。
“这件事理应两党合作推进，看到眼下局面我感到很失望。” 他说。
共和党众议员南希・梅斯在社交媒体发文称，共和党必须严肃对待民众诉求，否则政党将自食苦果。 “新增 950 亿美元赤字开支，没有任何资金抵扣，也没有一条能够降低生活成本的条款。普通美国家庭正承受物价上涨压力，美国梦离他们越来越远。” 梅斯写道。
参议院层面前景如何?
阻力不仅来自众议院，多名共和党参议员已经对这份方案泼冷水。
共和党参议员汤姆・蒂利斯表态：“如果众议院送来一份协调法案，还想借着法案强行推进这套容易引发混乱的选举改革，我会动用一切可用手段延缓立法进程。” 他所指的正是众议院力推的《保护美国选民资格法案》相关条款，该法案通过激励各州立法，要求选民登记时出示公民身份证明，以此强化选举监管。
参议院必须通过与众议院文本完全一致的预算决议案，协调立法流程才能正式启动。
参议员比尔・卡西迪在社交平台 X 上发文称：“美国国债正失控狂奔，下一份协调法案必须配套足额资金抵扣安排。”
Speaker Johnson's latest challenge: Funding Trump's war in Iran
As President Donald Trump tells Congress that he's reigniting military action in Iran, Speaker Mike Johnson is striving to advance legislation to pay for the president's 138-day war -- taking a procedural track that will rely strictly on GOP votes given overwhelming Democratic opposition to the conflict.
But with a razor-thin majority coupled with early signals of dissatisfaction and consternation throughout the House Republican Conference, Reconciliation 3.0 -- Republicans' third reconciliation bill this Congress -- could challenge Johnson's majority like never before or claim an important GOP victory before the midterm elections this fall.
What's budget reconciliation?
On Thursday, the House Budget Committee voted 20-14 on party-lines to advance the GOP budget resolution -- Johnson called the "SAVE and Protect Act" -- for Reconciliation 3.0, marking the first hurdle in the lengthy legislative process. The resolution now heads to the House floor.
Budget reconciliation is a legislative tool that enables Congress to pass partisan and even controversial bills that address issues such as taxes, mandatory spending and the debt limit by reducing the 60-vote threshold required for passage in the Senate to a simple majority. It’s typically used when one party has unified control of the House, Senate and White House -- as Republicans are positioned now -- and doesn’t require bipartisan cooperation across the aisle.
What's the plan?
House GOP leaders unveiled a budget blueprint on Wednesday for Reconciliation 3.0, calling for a $95 billion package to provide funding for defense and intelligence, farm aid and components of the elections overhaul effort, the SAVE America Act -- directing four committees to draft pieces of legislation that ultimately would be wrapped into one bill.
The blueprint would allow for up to $60 billion for military funding and up to $13 billion for intelligence costs -- totaling $73 billion to cover the Iran war as the Pentagon warns it's running out of money to conduct operations there. The plan also includes a long-shot bid to pass components of the SAVE America Act alongside $12 billion in aid for farmers. It did not instruct committees to come up with offsets to the cost of new spending.
The House is racing toward its final legislative week ahead of the five-week summer recess -- so GOP leaders are aiming at holding a vote on the budget resolution next week.
Speaker already facing backlash
Despite the full-steam-ahead approach from leadership, some House Republicans are expressing trepidation about the budget plan -- largely because it does not include spending cuts or pay-fors -- or correspondingsavingsto offset new spending.
"I think that a no-offset plan is dead on arrival," Republican Rep. Warren Davidson said. "Frankly, three of us would kill it, and so I think that's likely at this point."
Johnson can only afford to lose three GOP defections if all members are voting and present before his majority is upended.
Vice President JD Vance huddled behind closed doors on Wednesday to rally Republicans behind the emerging plan -- hoping that including provisions on election integrity is enough to calm tensions in the GOP conference over the bill's lack of pay-fors.
"What we're doing with this legislation is getting SAVE America through, and of course, getting some critical support to our troops and to our farmers,” the vice president told reporters after the meeting. "We decided to do this because we thought this was the best vehicle to accomplish those three things."
But Vance’s efforts did little to calm holdouts.
"I think the problem is there's no plan to pay for it, right?” Davidson added. "If it's a priority, then why isn't it a priority for us to say how are we going to pay for it?"
Another Budget Committee Republican, Rep. Lloyd Smucker, also says he wants to see budgetary offsets that correspond to new spending in the plan -- though he acknowledged the importance of the spending proposed by Republican leaders.
"I think there's a lot of us that would [like offsets], but we also think the priorities there are important," Smucker said.
A senior House GOP leadership aide explained why the plan does not include offsetting deficit reduction or spending cuts.
"It’s not necessarily a choice between this and nothing. It’s a choice between this and, you know, theoretically an even larger un-offset spending package, but that said, I think all our members, even our biggest fiscal hawks, recognize the importance of providing this funding," the leadership aide said.
Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley, who conferences with Republicans and whose support is calculated in the GOP's majority threshold, said he is "skeptical" of the budget plan because it cuts Democrats out of the process -- one said he believes should be bipartisan.
"It should really be done in a bipartisan way. So [I’m] disappointed this is where things are at," he said.
Republican Rep. Nancy Mace said in a social media post that the party should take Americans' "concerns seriously" or the "party will suffer the consequences."
“$95 billion in new deficit spending, no offsets, and not one provision to lower the cost of living," Mace wrote. "American families are feeling the pain of rising costs. Their American dream is getting further out of reach."
What about the Senate?
Not only are there concerns in the House, but several Senate Republicans have already poured cold water on the plan.
"If I see a reconciliation bill come from the House with another failed attempt to confuse this election, I will use every device I have available to slow down the wheels of government," GOP Sen. Thom Tillis said, alludingto the SAVE Act provisions favored by House Republicans that aim to address election integrity by incentivizing states to require citizenship to register to vote.
The Senate needs to adopt the same House budget resolution to unlock the process.
"Our national debt is a runaway train. The next reconciliation bill should be fully paid for," Sen. Bill Cassidy said in a post on X.
