美国总统唐纳德・特朗普针对 80 多个国家推出新一轮大范围关税，于周五正式生效。此举意在重建一套征税机制，替代今年早些时候被最高法院裁定作废的关税政策。
美国贸易代表杰米森・格里尔办公室发布公告称：依据各国在应对所谓强迫劳动违规问题上的行动力度，相关目标国家商品将被征收 10% 或 12.5% 两档关税。
新关税落地当天，恰好是今年 2 月宣布的全球统一 10% 临时关税到期之日。
部分分析师认为，当下消费者与企业正面临通胀再度抬头的压力，新政策可能推高部分日用品价格，加剧经济不确定性。但分析师同时表示，新关税为大规模征税确立了全新法律依据，有望增加联邦财政收入。
下文梳理特朗普这套大范围新关税对民众开支与整体经济带来的影响：
物价存在上涨风险
进口商通常会把关税成本转嫁到商品售价上，由消费者承担。因此，在伊朗战事已经推高各类商品价格的背景下，新关税或将进一步加重普通家庭的开支压力。
耶鲁预算实验室的数据显示，政策调整前，美国平均关税税率为 11.4%。周五新关税取代此前临时普惠关税之后，平均关税小幅回落至 11.1%。 不过该机构预测，随着后续更多拟议关税落地，到 2026 年底，美国平均关税税率将回升至 11.8%。
投资银行麦格理此前向美国广播公司透露，本轮关税覆盖的贸易伙伴，占美国全部进口规模的约 99%，但大量商品豁免条款将显著削弱政策冲击。 关税清单设置豁免范围，涵盖部分食品、燃料、化肥等品类，同时《美墨加协定》框架下符合规则的商品也不在征税之列。
德意志银行研究策略师吉姆・里德周五在研报中谈及新一轮关税，但淡化其经济冲击。他指出，特朗普一边终止到期的全球 10% 临时关税，一边同步推出税率相近的大范围新关税。
“最值得关注的一点是，经济层面实际变化并不大。这项政策的核心不在于提高税率，而是保住关税政策延续。” 里德表示。
负责任联邦预算委员会测算，如果这套关税政策维持十年不变，可为联邦政府带来最高 9000 亿美元新增税收。
不过委员会表示，这笔新增税收规模，不足此前被最高法院撤销的那批关税预期收入的六成。即便如此，新增税收仍可小幅削减联邦国债;预计到 2036 年，美国国债规模占国内生产总值比重将达到 122%，而非 125%。
大范围关税获得新法律支撑
分析师称，新关税政策与周五到期的全球统一 10% 关税类似，但依托另一套独立法律授权，相比此前被最高法院推翻的措施，具备更强的存续可能性。
本次征税的依据源于特朗普政府依照《1974 年贸易法》第 301 条款发起的调查，调查聚焦强迫劳动相关政策。该条款授权美国针对他国不合理贸易政策征收报复性关税。
特朗普政府划定：17 个贸易伙伴适用 10% 关税，包括阿根廷、孟加拉国。美方称这些国家已经承诺出台并有效执行强迫劳动进口禁令;欧盟 27 国、中国台湾地区商品同样适用 10% 税率。
其余 41 个贸易伙伴因未能出台强迫劳动进口禁令，商品将被征收 12.5% 关税。
德意志银行的里德分析，《1974 年贸易法》第 301 条款 “相比此前依靠临时紧急授权征税，法律基础稳固得多”。 “依托 301 条款的关税并非永久有效，仍需要接受定期审查、面临法律诉讼，但普遍认为这套框架比今年早些时候被法院否决的机制更不容易被推翻。”
也有分析师持不同看法。前世界贸易组织副总干事艾伦・沃尔夫 6 月在博客撰文预判，大范围套用 301 条款征收关税，很可能在司法审查中败诉。他表示，国会设立 301 条款时，本意是授权总统针对单个国家采取行动，而非一次性对多个经济体实施普惠式关税。
“没有证据表明，国会立法初衷允许同时对一个乃至多个国家一并实施大范围征税。” 沃尔夫写道。
周五生效的这套关税出台前，美国接连落地多项国别专项关税： 7 月 20 日，特朗普宣布对加拿大部分商品征收 50% 关税，征税品类包括曲棍球杆、葡萄酒; 次日宣布，从 2028 年起对仿制药生产商征收 100% 关税; 7 月 22 日，巴西部分商品开始被征收 25% 关税，品类涵盖服装、农业机械。
里德总结：“关税正逐步成为美国经济政策中长期固定组成部分。”
What Trump's sweeping new tariffs mean for your wallet
President Donald Trump's new round ofsweeping tariffson more than 80 countries took effect on Friday, ratcheting up an effort to reconstruct leviesstruck downby the Supreme Court earlier this year.
Targeted nations face duties of either 10% or 12.5%, depending on the extent of their efforts to address alleged forced labor violations, according to anoticefrom U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's office.
The levies began on the same day that a 10% global tariff announced in February was set to expire.
The move risks elevated costs for some household goods and a jolt of economic uncertainty at a time when shoppers and businesses are weathering a bout of resurgent inflation, some analysts said. Still, they added, the policy puts a major swathe of tariffs on new legal footing and may boost federal tax revenue.
Here's what Trump's sweeping new tariffs mean for your wallet and the wider economy:
A risk of higher prices
Importers typically offset the tax burden of tariffs in the form of higher prices for shoppers. The new levy, as a result, threatens to strain household budgets at a time when the Iran war is alreadypushing up prices.
Prior to the shift in policy last week, the average tariff rate stood at 11.4%, theYale Budget Lab(YBL) said. After the levies on Friday replaced the temporary across-the-board tariff, the average tariff rate fell slightly to 11.1%.
The average tariff rate is set to rise to 11.8% by the end of 2026 as a result of additional proposed tariffs, however, YBL said.
Trading partners affected by the new round of tariffs account for about 99% of all U.S. imports, but a series of product exemptions will significantly ease the measure's impact, investment bank Macquariepreviously toldABC News.
The tariffs include exemptions for some food items, fuel, fertilizers and other products, as well as goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, a free trade agreement.
Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, acknowledged the fresh round of tariffs in a note shared with ABC News on Friday, even as he downplayed the potential economic impact. Trump, after all, moved forward with a far-reaching tariff of around 10% at the same time he lifted a global tariff that matched that rate.
"Perhaps the most important takeaway is how little changes economically," Reid said. "The announcement is less about raising tariff rates and more about preserving them."
In the event that Trump's tariffs stay on the books over the next 10 years, the additional taxes could deliver as much as $900 billion in extra revenue for the federal government,Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget(CRFB) said.
The added tax payments amount to less than 60% of expected revenue under the batch of levies struck down by the Supreme Court, CRFB said. Even so, the group said, the additional funds could help incrementally reduce the national debt, putting it on a trajectory to be 122% of the U.S. GDP in 2036, rather than 125%.
A new legal basis for wide-ranging tariffs
The tariffs resemble an across-the-board 10% levy that expired on Friday, but the new measure falls under a separate legal authority with the potential for greater staying power than the levies that were struck down by the Supreme Court, some analysts said.
The finding centered on forced labor policies followed an investigation initiated by the Trump administration under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which permits levies imposed in response to an adverse trade policy taken up by another country.
Seventeen trade partners will now have a 10% tariff, including Argentina and Bangladesh. The Trump administration says these countries have made commitments to adopt, and effectively enforce, forced labor import prohibitions. Products from the 27-nation European Union and Taiwan will also have a 10% tariff.
All other trading partners, from 41 countries, have failed to adopt a forced labor import prohibition and will have a 12.5% tariff rate, the Trump administration says.
Reid, of Deutsche Bank, said Section 301 "provides a considerably more robust foundation than the temporary emergency powers used previously."
"While Section 301 tariffs are not permanent and remain subject to review processes and potential legal challenges, they are generally viewed as far more resilient than the framework struck down by the courts earlier this year," Reid added.
Some analysts disagree. Alan Wolff, a former deputy director-general of the World Trade Organization, said in ablog postin June that he expected far-reaching Section 301 tariffs to fail under legal scrutiny. Under Section 301, Wolff said, lawmakers intended to give the president the authority to address one country at a time rather than issue a blanket tariff.
"There is no indication that the Congress meant 'one or more, or multiple foreign countries,' to be addressed all at once," Wolff said.
The levy that took effect on Friday comes after a flurry of country-specific tariffs put forward in recent days.
On July 20, Trump issued a 50% tariff on a set of goods from Canada, including hockey sticks and wine. A day later, Trump announced a 100% tariff on generic drugmakers that would take effect in 2028.
A 25% levy hit some Brazilian goods on July 22, including apparel and farm machinery.
"Tariffs are increasingly becoming a permanent feature of U.S. economic policy," Reid said.
