特朗普总统 6 月中旬与伊朗签署的 14 点协议,原本被视作外交退路。协议设计者称,这份文件有望平息战事,为中东开辟通往繁荣的新道路。
然而,协议签署六周、特朗普宣布该协议正式失效三周之后,冲突非但再度爆发,战线还持续延伸,长期积蓄的对立矛盾重新激化。
多个国家出面斡旋,试图推动美伊重启谈判,但相关努力屡屡碰壁。两大交战方就连达成一份范围有限的停火协议,希望也愈发渺茫。 战火向西蔓延
周三,埃及达米埃塔地中海港口内,一艘美国所有的储气油轮与另一艘船只起火。
伊朗外长否认与此事有关,目前尚无任何国家或武装组织宣称实施袭击。但埃及认定火灾由无人机袭击引发,美方评估认为,袭击大概率是伊朗关联势力所为。
特朗普周三表示,他已经听取相关简报,称此次事件 “依旧是同类冲突的延续”。
这次袭击标志着埃及首次卷入本轮冲突。今年以来,已有十多个国家遭到伊朗相关势力打击,埃及成为新的受害方。
埃及政府称,袭击发生后,埃及外长与特朗普的中东事务特使史蒂夫・威特科夫通电话,双方均 “强调应当防止冲突进一步升级,避免爆发更大规模地区战争”。
但这场战争已经将中东另一大关键力量沙特阿拉伯深度裹挟其中。
美方官员透露,本月早些时候,伊朗试图派遣伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队人员与武器搭乘飞机进入也门首都,致使沙特与伊朗支持的胡塞武装之间维持多年的非正式停战协定破裂。受此影响,沙特支持的也门政府向机场开火,阻止飞机降落。
涉事飞机随后更改航线,胡塞武装气焰愈发嚣张,宣称将对沙特实施海上封锁,中东又一条重要航运通道面临威胁。
沙特原本不愿正式参战,但释放信号,将以武力回击胡塞武装以及其他伊朗代理人发起的威胁。
周三,沙特首次公开承认直接介入冲突,宣布本国武装部队与美军中央司令部协同行动,对位于伊拉克、多次袭击沙特能源设施的目标实施联合打击。
沙特还于周四宣布,召集 43 国代表召开会议,商讨组建海上防御联盟,保障红海航运安全,其中 14 个国家最终支持发表联合声明,正式成立该联盟。 冲突走向全球化
就在特朗普签署这份本旨在促成美伊停火的协议满一个月当天,伊朗发起导弹与无人机袭击,造成三名美军人员身亡。这也是开战初期之后,首次有美军士兵死于伊朗直接打击。
约旦距离伊朗大约 1000 英里,但过去一个月,伊朗已对该国境内美国目标发动近十次袭击,报复打击范围远远超出海湾区域。
本周早些时候短暂出现一段平静期,美方原本期待借此创造外交谈判空间。但伊朗随后发起一次被美军中央司令部称作 “突袭尝试” 的行动,目标直指驻中东美军。伊朗官方事后确认,约旦穆瓦法克・萨尔蒂空军基地是袭击目标。
此次袭击发生在伊朗拒绝霍尔木兹海峡管控方案之后。战争研究所研判,伊朗发动袭击,意在释放信号:伊朗政权愿意承担与美国爆发全面冲突的风险。
伊朗持续瞄准约旦境内美方目标,也让外界更多质疑:伊朗或许正在获得美国另外两大对手俄罗斯、中国的情报共享以及其他形式支持。
特朗普政府官员多次表态,莫斯科与北京并未实质性向伊朗提供战争支援。但周六,乌克兰在里海袭击一艘伊朗民用货船,基辅方面称这艘船只正在伊朗与俄罗斯之间转运武器。此次袭击引发伊朗将要报复的威胁,外界担忧乌克兰战事与美伊冲突最终交织在一起。
As diplomacy falters, US-Iran war expands: ANALYSIS
The 14-point deal withIransigned by President Donald Trump in mid-June was supposed to be a diplomatic offramp, one the architects of the agreement said would wind down the war and open new pathways to prosperity for the Middle East.
But six weeks after the agreement was inked and three weeks after Trump declared it officially dead, the conflict has not only been revived -- it has reached new fronts and reignited simmering feuds.
Efforts by several mediating countries to restart negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have repeatedly hit a wall, dimming prospects of thekey belligerents striking even a more limited ceasefire agreement.
War stretches west
On Wednesday, flames engulfed an American-owned gas storage tanker and another vessel in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta.
Although Iran's foreign minister has denied any responsibility and no country or group has taken credit for it, Egypt said the fire was the result of a drone strike and U.S. officials have assessed that Iranian-linked actors were likely behind it.
Trumpsaid on Wednesday he was briefed on the matter and described the incident as "a little more of the same."
However, the attackmarks the first time Egypt has been hit during the course of the conflict, adding another name to the list of more than a dozen countries that have come under Iranian fire this year.
According to the Egyptian government, the country's foreign minister spoke by phone with Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff after the drone attack and both officials "stressed the importance of preventing further escalation and avoiding a broader regional conflict."
But the war is already increasingly ensnaring another power player in the region: Saudi Arabia.
U.S. officials say Tehran fomented the collapse of a yearslong informal truce between Riyadh and the Iranian-backed Houthis by attempting to fly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and weapons into the Yemen's capital earlier this month, prompting the Saudi-backed Yemeni government to fire on the airport to prevent the plane from landing.
But that plane diverted and the Houthis appeared emboldened, declaring they would impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia -- threatening another vital shipping lane in the Middle East.
Riyadh had been reluctant to formally join the fray but signaled it would meet threats from the Houthis and other Iranian proxies with force.
On Wednesday, thekingdom acknowledged taking a direct role in the conflict for the first time, announcing its armed forces had carried out joint strikes with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) on targets in Iraq that perpetrated attacks on Saudi energy sites.
Riyadh also announced on Thursday that it convened representatives of 43 countries to discuss plans for a maritime defense coalition to safeguard shipping in the Red Sea, and that 14 of those nations ultimately backed a joint statement launching the coalition.
An increasingly global conflict
Exactly a month to the day after the deal that was supposed to cement that truce between the U.S and Iran was signed by Trump, a missile and drone attacklaunched by Tehran claimed the lives of three American service members -- the first troopskilled by direct Iranian fire since the first days of the war.
Although Jordan is approximately 1,000 miles from Iran, Tehran has hit at U.S. interests in the country nearly a dozen times during the past month, extending the range of its retaliatory strikes far beyond the Gulf.
Following a few days of calm earlier this weekthat U.S. officials hoped would make space for diplomacy, Iran also launched what CENTCOM described as an "attempted surprise attack" on American forces in the Middle East. The Iranian regime later identified Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base as the intended target.
That attackfollowed Iran's rejection of a proposal for managing the Strait of Hormuz and was likely intended to signal "the regime's willingness to incur the riskof full-scale conflict with the United States," according to an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War.
Tehran's focus on U.S. targets in Jordan has also intensified questions about intelligence sharing and other forms of support Tehran may be receiving from two other U.S. rivals: Russia and China.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly said that Moscow and Beijing have not meaningfully contributed to Iran's war effort.But on Saturday, Ukraine struckan Iranian commercial cargo ship in the Caspian Seathat Kyiv said was transporting arms between Iran and Russia. The attackprompted threats of Iranian retaliation and concern that the wars in Ukraine and Iran could eventually converge.





