唐纳德·特朗普总统又来到了伊朗问题的另一个分岔路口。但每当他走到这一步，他的选择就只会越来越狭窄，任何行动的代价也都在增加。
特朗普政府周日解释说，空袭暂停——在连续13晚袭击后，现已延长至三晚——旨在为外交创造空间。但同时也警告称，已“锁定并装填”，可能的升级事件。
有一些外交活动的迹象。伊朗表示近日已与阿曼副外长级别会谈。但迄今为止，伊斯兰共和国没有迹象表明会改变其核心诉求，而这正是导致与美国最新冲突的焦点：其坚持控制霍尔木兹海峡航运。
伊朗外交部发言人埃斯梅尔·巴盖伊在电视新闻发布会上表示，目前没有与美国进行任何谈判，德黑兰“永远不会允许美国决定战争与和平的时机”。
特朗普发现自己又回到了熟悉的位置。他试图通过加大攻击力度来迫使伊朗让步。但这一计划现在的效果并不比最初的战斗时好。他可以通过部署地面部队来加大压力，这一举措可能利用美国的军事优势。但这将冒着在这场本已极不受欢迎的战争中造成重大美军伤亡的风险。
在他曾说过只需几周的战争近五个月后，特朗普仍在试图制造对德黑兰的机动空间。但策略似乎只会让他空间更小，选择更糟。
政治压力也在升高。上周油价的飙升可能带来汽油价格上涨和反对战争的美国人更多的焦虑——尽管布伦特原油作为国际基准，在停战后周一下跌超过6%。一条通过红海的替代石油运输路线如今正受到也门伊朗支持的胡塞武装的威胁。全球原油库存正接近极低水平，加剧了对能源危机恶化的担忧。所有这些都在即将到来的十一月中期选举前逐步展开，特朗普的共和党人已经面临一场艰难的挑战。
7月25日，人们坐在渔船上，航行于也门南部塔伊兹省附近的曼德海峡。 哈立德·齐亚德／法新社／盖蒂图片社 “我们需要点不一样的东西。”
正如几周以来的情况一样，特朗普的选择看起来令人难以接受。这或许能解释他上周在威胁使用大量武力和声称伊朗求谈之间的摇摆。鉴于未能改变战争的地缘政治格局，这种言论似乎更多针对国内观众而非德黑兰。
在伊朗最近一轮袭击事件中，针对伊朗日益扩大的地理范围，特朗普仍可能选择采取行动。他可能会试图通过打击交通基础设施和发电厂来进一步扼杀伊朗经济。但这种做法会给伊朗平民带来更多痛苦，而特朗普在战争初期似乎很想帮助他们。甚至他核心圈子里的一些人也认为这不会动摇德黑兰的压制统治者。
CNN的扎卡里·科恩和吉姆·斯修托报道，副总统JD·范斯和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩在周五的白宫会议上表达了对战争升级的担忧。一位知情人士和一名美国官员表示，凯恩担心这对弹药库存的影响。上周，CNN的凯蒂·博·利利斯报道，据两位熟悉评估的美国官员透露，中央情报局和国防情报局最近都评估，美国最近实施的轰炸类型不太可能改变伊朗的谈判立场。
另一个计划是延长美国对伊朗船只和港口的经济封锁，试图切断伊朗政府的资金和维持伊斯兰革命卫队军事机器所需的收入。缺点是这可能需要数周甚至数月，且可能无法彻底改变德黑兰的思维。目前尚不清楚特朗普是否有个人耐心或国内政治空间来选择这样的道路。伊朗很可能会通过重新攻击海峡内的商业油轮——从而加剧战争对全球经济的冲击波和美国的政治压力。
第三种选择可能是美国尝试续签破裂的谅解备忘录，该备忘录促成了短暂的停火。但除非德黑兰确保备忘录最初所赋予的——即监管和变现海峡交通的权利，否则不太可能同意。这将意味着美国的失败，因为关键水道在战争爆发前就已开放。与此同时，如果特朗普被看到给德黑兰比最初的谅解备忘录更有利的条件，他将面临来自外交政策鹰派的国内政治批评，而最初谅解备忘录中承诺的制裁缓解和区域重建基金。
似乎每个人都在寻找一种难以捉摸的新方法。
例如，共和党参议员比尔·卡西迪在周日的《国情咨文》中表示，特朗普应该发起“全国对话，总统与美国人民对话，进入国会，国会协助做出艰难决定。还有其他出路吗？”他告诉CNN的达纳·巴什，他希望得到一个解决方案，既不让伊朗控制海峡，也不涉及美国花费“数百亿美元在迄今尚未证明成效的事情上”。
“我们需要点不一样的东西，”卡西迪说。
但特朗普的困惑是，五个月的战争后，没有人提出一个可行的方案，说明可能的不同样貌。
军用直升机和人员在这张截图中标注为阿拉伯海的位置活动，该截图来自美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）于7月25日发布的一段视频。 美国中央司令部／路透社 特朗普能否摆脱无解局面？
白宫在周日脱口秀节目中交给了美国驻联合国大使迈克·沃尔茨解释政府战略转变和寻求摆脱战争出路的任务。
沃尔茨强调了中东近期军事力量的增强，这加剧了人们对特朗普可能试图加剧冲突的预期。“政权应该相信总统说＇我们已锁定且装填充分＇，所有选项都摆在桌面上，”他对CBS《面对国家》说。
在NBC《会见新闻界》节目中，沃尔茨认为“伊朗在外交上孤立，经济上孤立，军事上也遭受重创。”他补充道：“他们从未如此软弱，我们正处于强势的谈判位置。”
从军事角度看，这可能是真的。但冲突的不对称性意味着，只要伊朗能用无人机和导弹威胁海峡内的船只，就有可能增加战争的全球成本。尽管最高领袖阿里·哈梅内伊去世，其压制政权依然存续，这也制造了对抗美国全球超级大国的强大印象。
与此同时，伊朗战争依然是特朗普政府的政治铁砧。一项新的CBS新闻／YouGov民调反映了总统关于冲突的混乱信息，只有31%的美国人表示他们对霍尔木兹海峡的局势有清晰理解。只有40%的人认为美国在冲突中占优势。76%的人认为与伊朗的战争比特朗普政府预期的更艰难。
但沃尔茨坚持认为，阻止伊朗获得核武器的核心目标将被历史认可。“有时候，这比——你知道，比最初计划的还要难，”他告诉NBC。
数月来，特朗普一直试图迫使伊朗投降，同时避免让美国卷入他在竞选期间所谴责的中东地面战争。但经验表明，在对美国行动的自我限制下，这场战争可能难以取胜。升级的另一阶梯可能只会让特朗普再次陷入同样令人羡慕的困境。但没有明显的和平协议能实现美国目标的路径。
这似乎就是无解局面的定义。
At every fork in the road on Iran， Trump’s choices get worse
President Donald Trump has arrived at yet another fork in the road on Iran． But each time he reaches such a point， his options only become more narrow and the costs of any course of action grow．
The Trump administration explained Sunday that apause in air strikes— now up to three nights， after 13 straight nights of attacks — was meant to createspace for diplomacy． But it also warned it was “locked and loaded” for another possible escalation．
There are some signs of diplomatic activity． Iran said it hosted talks with Oman at deputy foreign minister level in recent days． But there’s so far no sign the Islamic Republic will shift on its core demand， which caused the latest flare-up with the US： its insistence on controlling shipping through the Strait of Hormuz．
Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said in a televised press conference that no talks were currently taking place with the US and that Tehran “will never allow the United States to determine the timing of war and peace．”
Trump finds himself back in a familiar spot． He’s tried to coerce Iranian concessions with intensified attacks． But this plan is not working any better now than it did after the initial round of fighting． He could increase the pressure by deploying ground troops， a move that might take advantage of the US military edge． But this would risk significantUS casualtiesin an already deeply unpopular war．
Nearly five months into a war he’d said would take a few weeks， Trump keeps trying to create maneuvering space against Tehran． But all the strategy seems to do is leave him with less room and worse choices．
And the political heat is rising． Ajump in oil prices last weekcreates the likelihood of higher gasoline costs and more angst for the majority of Americans who oppose the war — although Brent crude， the international benchmark， fell more than 6% Monday following the pause in fighting． An alternative oil shipping route through the Red Sea is now being threatened by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels． Global crude inventories are approaching critically low levels， stoking fears of a worsening energy crisis． All of this is unfolding ahead of the fast approaching midterm elections in November in which Trump’s Republicans already face a tough ride．
People sit in a fishing boat sailing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off of Yemen＇s southern Taiz province on July 25． Khaled Ziad／AFP／Getty Images ‘We need something different’
As has been the case for weeks， Trump’s options appear unpalatable． This may explain his gyration last week between threats of huge force and claims that Iran is begging to talk． Given the failure to shift the geopolitics of the war， such rhetoric seems aimed more toward domestic audiences than Tehran．
Trump could still choose to act on his blistering rhetoric last week， following a broadening geographic scope of targets in Iran during the latest bout of attacks． He could try to further strangle the Iranian economy by striking transport infrastructure and power plants． But such an approach would heap even more pain on Iranian civilians， whom Trump seemed keen to help at the start of the war． And even some in his inner circle doing think it would not move Tehran’s repressive rulers．
CNN’s Zachary Cohen and Jim Sciutto reported that Vice President JD Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine voiced concern about escalating the war in a White House meeting Friday． Caine was worried about the impact on munitions stockpiles， a source familiar with the matter and a US official said． Last week，CNN’s Katie Bo Lillis reportedthat both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency recently assessed that the kind of bombing the US most recently carried out is unlikely to shift the Iranian negotiating position， according to two US officials familiar with the assessments．
One other plan would be to extend the US economic blockade on Iran’s ships and ports to try to choke off funding for the Iranian government and revenues needed to sustain the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military machine． The downside is that it would take weeks or months and still might not reshape Tehran’s thinking． It’s not clear that Trump has the personal patience or the domestic political room to pick such a path． And Iran would likely respond by renewing attacks on commercial tankers in the strait — thereby heightening the shock waves of the war on the global economy and the political pressure in the US．
A third option might see the US to try to renew the collapsedmemorandum of understandingthat forged a short-lived ceasefire． But Tehran is unlikely to agree unless it secures what it believed the MOU provided to begin with — the right to regulate and monetize strait traffic． This would represent a defeat for the US， since the critical waterway was open before the war． Trump would face domestic political criticism from foreign policy hawks， meanwhile， if he were seen to give Tehran even more favorable terms than those in the initial MOU， which brought the promise of sanctions relief and a regional reconstruction fund．
Everyone seems to be casting around for an elusive new approach．
Republican Sen． Bill Cassidy， for instance， said on “State of the Union” Sunday that Trump should initiate a “national dialogue， where the president comes to the American people， comes to Congress， Congress helps make a tough decision． Is there another way forward？” He told CNN’s Dana Bash that he hoped for a solution that doesn’t give Iran the ability to control the strait and does not involve the US spending “tens of billions of dollars on something which so far has not proven results．”
“We need something different，” Cassidy said．
But it’s a mark of Trump’s conundrum that after five months of war， no one has come up with a workable suggestion for what something different might look like．
Military helicopters and personnel operate in a location given as the Arabian Sea in this screengrab obtained from a video released by US Central Command （CENTCOM） on July 25． US Central Command／Reuters Can Trump fashion a route out of a no-win situation？
The White House handed US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz the task of explaining the administration’s shifting strategy and search for a way out of the war on Sunday talk shows．
Waltz highlighted a recent buildup of military force in the Middle East that fueled expectations Trump might try to intensify the fight． “The regime should believe the president when he says， ‘（We’re） locked and loaded，’ and where all options are on the table，” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation．”
On NBC’s “Meet the Press，” Waltz argued that “Iran is diplomatically isolated， economically isolated and militarily devastated．” He added： “They’ve never been so weak， and we’re negotiating from a position of strength．”
In military terms， this may be true． But the asymmetric nature of the conflict means that as long as Iran can threaten ships with drones and missiles in the strait， it has the capacity to increase the global costs of the war． And the survival of its repressive regime despite the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei creates a perception of strength against the US global superpower．
The war in Iran meanwhile continues to be a political anvil for the Trump administration． A new CBS News／YouGov poll reflects the president’s chaotic messaging on the conflict， with only 31% of Americans saying they had a clear understanding of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz． Only 40% said the US had the advantage in the conflict． And 76% said the war with Iran had been harder than the Trump administration expected．
But Waltz insisted that the president’s core goal of preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon would be recognized by history． “Sometimes， that’s going to be harder than — you know， harder than initially planned for，” he told NBC．
For months， Trump has sought to force Iranian capitulation without embroiling the United States in the kind of Middle East ground wars that he decried on the campaign trail． But experience is showing that the war may not be winnable within the self-imposed limits on US action． Another step up the ladder of escalation may simply deliver Trump back to the same unenviable dilemma． But there’s no obvious path to a peace deal that fulfills US goals．
It seems like the definition of a no-win situation．
