特朗普已让共和党在两大核心议题上丧失固有民意优势
当前美国总统特朗普的民意支持度低迷，直接导致共和党丢掉两大历来占据上风的核心议题优势：经济与国家安全。
路透社与益普索本周联合民调显示，在 “战争、对外冲突与反恐” 议题上，民主党、共和党支持率几乎持平。2024 年大选结束后，共和党在该议题上领先 11 个百分点;如今 37% 美国民众认可民主党处理方案，36% 民众更看好共和党。
几周前福克斯新闻民调也呈现相似趋势：国家安全议题上，50% 登记选民倾向共和党，48% 偏向民主党。而今年 1 月伊朗战争爆发前，共和党在此议题上领先 12 个百分点。
上述两份最新民调的差值均处于误差范围内，但两党数据近乎持平的局面，在以往十分罕见。
福克斯长期跟踪登记选民对两党反恐、国家安全能力的评价。伊朗战争之前，民主党在这两项议题上的支持率从未缩小到与共和党差距 10 个百分点以内。盖洛普历年民调也持续显示，国家安全议题长期由共和党领跑;21 世纪以来，民主党仅在 2007 年短暂反超一次。
盖洛普针对 “国际恐怖主义与军事威胁” 议题的调研数据，共和党优势更是悬殊。自 9・11 事件次年起开展的 22 轮民调中，民主党仅有 2007 年一次领先，绝大多数时候共和党领先两位数。
再看经济议题。 福克斯最新民调显示，民主党在经济议题上领先 9 个百分点，支持率 54% 对 45%。这是 2006 年以来民主党创下的最大优势，当年民主党曾领先 20 个百分点。
民主党今年 4 月首次在经济议题实现反超，上一次领先还要追溯至 2010 年，彼时小布什政府时期爆发的 2008 年金融危机余波未平。
CNN5 月民调中两党经济议题差距稍小：35% 成年人认可民主党，33% 认可共和党。这项调查此前对比国会两党施政能力，上一次共和党未占优势还是 2009 年。
两组议题的民调数据都表明，特朗普严重误判了发动伊朗战争及加征全球关税等争议政策引发的负面民意。
推行大范围关税政策后，经济好坏的责任彻底归于特朗普政府;而面对国内通胀难题，特朗普基本回避承担治理责任，进一步加剧民众不满。当下美国经济增长乏力，7 月全国新增就业岗位减少 2.3 万个。
并非民众格外青睐民主党，多项民调显示民主党整体支持度依旧低迷。但民主党能在经济议题实现反超，足以说明民众对共和党经济政策的失望。
国家安全议题的民意反转更具冲击力 —— 该议题历来是共和党专属优势赛道，民主党几乎无法与之抗衡。
正如教育、医疗议题天然利好民主党，国土安全、国防议题向来是共和党王牌，且优势差距巨大。即便当年小布什发动两场不受欢迎的中东战争，共和党在此领域依旧保持领先。
但特朗普对伊朗战事处置失当，直接扭转民意，如今民众认为两党处理国家安全事务的能力旗鼓相当，共和党彻底丢失自身传统优势阵地。
Trump has squandered Republicans’ typical advantages in 2 key areas
President Donald Trump’s political stature is so poor right now that he has squandered the Republican Party’s advantage on two major issues that almost always favor the GOP: the economy and national security.
AReuters-Ipsos pollthis week showed Democrats and Republicans virtually tied on “war, foreign conflicts and terrorism.” The GOP led on that issue by 11 points after the 2024 election. Today, 37% of US adults say Democrats have a better approach, compared to 36% who say the GOP does.
Fox News pollinga couple weeks back showed something very similar: On national security, 50% of registered voters preferred the GOP, to 48% who preferred the Democratic Party. That’s compared to a 12-point edge for Republicans in January, before the Iran war.
Both recent findings are within the margin of error. But the numbers even being that close is basically unheard of.
Fox polling has regularly tested how registered voters compare the two parties onterrorismandnational security. Until the Iran war, Democrats had never even been within double-digits of the Republican Party on either issue.
Republicans have also led consistently on national security inGallup polling. Democrats only nosed ahead on that issue once in the 21st century: in 2007.
Gallup’s data on which party is better on “international terrorism and military threats” has been even more lopsided in the GOP’s favor.
Across 22 polls conducted since a year after 9/11, Democrats have led on that issue only once — again, in 2007 — and most of the time Republicans led by double-digits.
And then there’s the economy.
The most recent Fox survey showed Democrats leading on that issue by nine points, 54%-45%. That was the biggest Democratic advantage since 2006, when they led by 20 points.
And when they took a lead on the economy back in April, it marked the first time they were ahead since 2010, shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that began during the George W. Bush administration.
CNN polling back in May showed a closer split between the two parties on the economy, with 35% of adults preferring Democrats, compared to 33% who preferred the GOP.
The poll previously asked people to choose between congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats. The last time Republicans didn’t lead on that question was 2009.
The numbers on both fronts seem to illustrate that Trump greatly miscalculated the fallout from launching the Iran war — as well as other controversial policies like his global tariffs.
By launching the tariffs, he effectively took ownership of whatever became of the economic picture. Then he compounded negative public sentiment by basically shrugging off any responsibility to address Americans’ inflation concerns. Now he’s contending with a still-stagnant economic picture, with the economy shedding 23,000 jobs in July.
Americans don’t love Democrats; in fact, the blue side remains pretty unpopular in polls. So the fact that they’ve apparently taken a lead on the economy really says something.
And the national security numbers might be even more striking — because Democrats hardly ever even compete with Republicans on the topic.
Just as education and health care almost always favor Democrats, national security and defending the homeland are almost always signature GOP issues, and lopsidedly so.
That remained true even when Bush launched wars in the Middle East that gradually became pretty unpopular.
Trump, though, seems to have botched the Iran war so badly that Americans suddenly see Democrats on equal footing with the GOP — in terms of issues on the GOP’s own turf.
