距离美国中期选举仅剩数月，国内经济疲软，特朗普正陷入和前总统卡特当年相似的伊朗外交困局，两大难题重创共和党选情，还会毁掉他第二任期的政治遗产。
如今特朗普在伊朗问题上陷入的被动局面，比吉米・卡特之后任何一位总统都要严峻。如同 1979 至 1980 年伊朗人质危机时期，伊朗伊斯兰政权抓住大选节点，持续向美国总统施加政治压力。一周前，特朗普团队还预判，很快就能达成协议、重开霍尔木兹海峡航道;但如今伊朗反倒掌握谈判主动权，向美国这个超级大国抛出苛刻的全新条件。
与此同时，特朗普在国内面临另一重息息相关的难题：美伊战争推高能源价格，选民对国内经济的不满情绪持续加剧。总统和幕僚们翻遍经济数据试图寻找利好信号，但普通民众只觉得政府无视自身生活困境，由此陷入恶性循环。11 月大选临近，上周五出炉的惨淡就业报告，更是给共和党雪上加霜。
共和党整体选情持续恶化，但特朗普本人似乎毫无察觉。他周末在社交平台发布的一系列内容，仿佛是对手刻意策划，凸显他脱离民众、不接地气。他晒出和南非高尔夫传奇加里・普莱耶的合影、自家高尔夫球场全新果岭的雕刻工程;还发文介绍白宫宴会厅规划中的未来风无人机起降点、倒影池翻新工程，以及华盛顿两座新刷金色漆面的雕像。他宣称自己成功遏制通胀，但种种举动更像一心打造实体纪念工程，而非潜心谋划国家振兴方案。
这个周末特朗普唯一的政治利好：参议院以微弱优势批准他前私人律师托德・布兰奇出任司法部长。但这场胜利仅对总统本人有利，很难打动普通选民。共和党议员随后结束国会议程，印证了他们此前的预判 —— 特朗普主推的限制投票权法案无法通过。8 月对特朗普而言外交噩耗接连不断，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡否决了一项看似能彰显政绩的方案：解除加沙哈马斯武装。 民主党会给特朗普喘息之机吗?
通常来说，这类多重政治危机足以重创现任总统的中期选举选情。CNN 记者艾伦・布莱克周日分析，多份民调显示，特朗普已经丢掉共和党在国家安全、经济两大议题上长期稳固的民意优势。
打破常规一直是特朗普的政治利器，距离他完成美国史上最惊人的政治翻盘也才过去不到两年。但 11 月大选的舆论环境不再对他有利。2016、2024 年参选时，他以体制外挑战者身份竞选，往往更有号召力;如今他自己就是当权建制派，2018、2020 年大选时，被迫为自身执政记录辩护的他均遭遇失利。
特朗普还刻意回避民众真实的不满情绪。他上周接受《Punchbowl News》采访时称：“民众不是生我的气，他们只是对共和党不满。”
但近几周，民主党或许给了特朗普可乘之机。民主党初选多名进步派、民主社会主义者胜出，正好印证特朗普的说法 —— 他正在抵御左翼极端主义浪潮。这一幕类似本世纪初共和党茶党运动崛起：民主党提名的激进候选人会疏远中间郊区选民(这类群体往往决定大选走向)，白白丢掉本可稳拿的席位。
不过左翼进步派认为，当下混乱的政治环境，反而能拉拢一批既反感特朗普、也不认同民主党温和建制派的选民。拜登、哈里斯竞选失利才让特朗普重回白宫，大批选民早已对两党主流政客失望。
密歇根州民主党联邦参议员候选人、左翼人士阿卜杜勒・埃尔 - 赛义德周日做客 CNN《国情咨文》栏目，聚焦特朗普在经济议题上的短板。该州选情将直接决定参议院控制权归属，刚结束激烈党内初选的他呼吁党内团结。
“我们初选产生的分歧微不足道，共同目标才是共识：我们必须站出来对抗特朗普。他手握权力只为给自己、自家家族谋私利，根本无心改善普通家庭的生活。” 埃尔 - 赛义德对主持人杰克・塔珀说道。 伊朗寸步不让，持续牵制特朗普
1980 年，伊朗扣押 52 名美国人质长达 444 天，借人质事件在美国大选前拿捏卡特政府。46 年后，伊朗不再扣押人质，而是扼守霍尔木兹海峡这条全球石油运输要道。大选前夕，美国选民会像当年怪罪卡特一样，因经济问题迁怒现任总统，伊朗就此手握施压筹码。
颇具讽刺意味的是，特朗普十分清楚伊朗人质危机如何拖垮卡特。多数历史学家认为，这场危机是卡特一任结束后输给共和党里根的核心诱因。
特朗普 6 月 4 日解释为何不派特种部队突袭伊朗地下核设施时坦言：“我不想重蹈吉米・卡特的覆辙。”
他指的是 1980 年惨败的 “鹰爪行动”—— 美军计划武力解救被扣人质，行动途中遭遇恶劣天气被迫中止，撤退时一架直升机撞上 C-130 运输机，8 名美军士兵当场身亡，人质全程未能获救。直到 1981 年 1 月里根宣誓就职 20 分钟后，伊朗才释放所有人质。
相比 1980 年，如今美国经济抗风险能力更强，但美伊战争的负面影响仍在发酵。
美国汽车协会数据显示，全美汽油均价再度突破每加仑 4 美元。高油价、房价与医疗成本持续上涨，薪资涨幅跟不上生活开支，民众怨声载道。市场对快速达成海峡通航协议的预期落空，周一国际油价上涨 0.4%，报每桶 78.49 美元。
特朗普政府官员反复宣称，只要海峡恢复通航，民众的经济压力会立刻缓解。但这番表态反而抬高伊朗谈判筹码。德黑兰方面开出强硬条件：要求美国解除海上封锁、从中东撤军、为战争造成的损失赔偿，并全面取消制裁。
这些条款特朗普绝不可能接受，伊朗或许是过度抬高要价。但如果特朗普失去耐心、再度升级战事，只会让这场本就不得民心的战争进一步激化，引发更严重的经济反噬。
特朗普试图夺回主动权。他接受《Axios》采访时表示，正在等待海上封锁政策对伊朗产生实质打击。“我们现在低调处理，只和他们进行有限谈判。” 特朗普周日说道。
去年美军空袭重创伊朗军队、延缓其核计划、摧毁军工体系，如今特朗普押注美国经济韧性更强，借此走出战略僵局。
不少分析人士认为，伊朗激进领导层为了和美国长期对抗，不惜让本国民众承受经济苦难。政权或许终有崩溃的一天，但放在特朗普剩余短暂执政周期内，这种可能性微乎其微。 白宫坚称：经济一片繁荣
共和党急需战事带来的经济压力早日消退，但上周五官方数据显示，7 月美国减少 2.3 万个就业岗位，这对白宫、共和党竞选团队以及失业民众都是沉重打击。
不过政府称经济基本面韧性充足并非假话。只是食品、住房价格居高不下，薪资增长乏力，普通民众完全感受不到特朗普口中的 “经济黄金时代”。
白宫官方经济判断与民众真实体感脱节，历来是政治陷阱，政府前后矛盾的话术只会加剧割裂。
国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈西特在 CNN 节目中表示：“说到底，宏观层面看，美国经济表现极其亮眼。” 他称 7 月就业下滑只是世界杯临时用工结束、教师暑期休假导致;同时强调美国正在大量创造优质岗位，物价涨幅也在放缓。
但向民众传递经济利好是最难的政治任务之一。2008 年麦凯恩共和党总统竞选、2010 年奥巴马任内民主党中期选举、2024 年拜登与哈里斯的总统竞选，全都栽在经济宣传上。
经济难题还只是特朗普诸多麻烦中的一件。
特朗普对《Axios》表示：“这场战争终会有好结果，一切都会解决，就像一盘国际象棋。” 但无论伊朗议题还是整体政坛局势，他的最终解决方案都模糊不清，让人难以看透。
Trump has a Carter-style Iran problem as the economy drags before the midterms
President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.
Somehow he’s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80hostage crisis, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the US leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump’s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz wasimminent. But Tehran,now dictating termsto the US global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.
At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war’s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptionsof the economy. He’s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday’sbad jobs reportare untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.
As the political environment darkens for Republicans, their leader seems oblivious. Many of Trump’s weekend social media posts might have been scripted by his foes to portray an out-of-touch president. He posted a picture with South African golf legend Gary Player, and another of the sculpting of a new green at one of his courses. He posted about a futuristic drone port on the proposedWhite House ballroom, theReflecting Pool renovation, and two statues in Washington newly coated with glistening golden paint. He also claimed to be a slayer of inflation, but he looked more like a president desperately trying to leave a physical legacy rather than one brimming with ideas for national renewal.
The weekend did deliver a victory for Trump: The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyerTodd Blancheas US attorney general. But this is a win that will appeal more to the president than to voters. And Republicans left town after proving their own warnings that Trump’s top-priorityvoting restrictions billcan’t pass. And the president’s grim August took another rough turn abroad, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected another supposed triumph — a plan todisarm Hamasin Gaza.
Are Democrats handing Trump a lifeline?
Such political challenges would typically spell trouble for incumbent presidents in midterm elections. Andas CNN’s Aaron Blake pointed out Sunday, multiple polls now show that Trump has squandered the traditional GOP advantage in two areas: national security and the economy.
Trump’s thwarting of convention has always been a political strength, and he’s less than two years past thegreatest political comebackin US history. But the dynamics of November’s election may not favor him. He’s always been more effective politically as an outsider, as in 2016 and 2024. He is the political establishment now, and previously when he’s been forced to defend his own record, as in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he has foundered.
The president is also in denial about how voters are feeling. “They are not angry at me, but they’re angry at Republicans,” Trumptold Punchbowl Newslast week.
But in recent weeks, Democrats may have given him an opening. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialists are fueling Trump’s claims that he is resisting a tide of left-wing extremism. In a parallel to the GOP’s tea party insurgency earlier in the century, Democrats may risk winnable seats by nominating candidates who alienate more moderate, suburban voters who tend to decide elections.
Progressives, however, believe that the jumbled political circumstancescreate the conditionsfor a breakthrough among voters who aren’t just down on Trump but who also disdain the moderate Democratic establishment — especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House.
Progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday homed in on Trump’s vulnerability on the economy as he pivoted from a bitter primary in a state that could decide who runs the Senate. “Differences that we hashed out are so much smaller than the similarities that we share: a responsibility to stand up to Donald Trump and the ways that he’s used his power for his own gain, for his family’s finances, rather than to improve your family’s finances,”El-Sayed told CNN’s Jake Tapperon “State of the Union.”
Iran digs in to defy Trump
In 1980, Iran exerted leverage over a US election afterholding 52 Americans in Tehranin a standoff that eventually lasted 444 days. Forty-six years later, it’s not people being held hostage — but the Strait of Hormuz oil exporting route. This means the regime has another election-season pressure point as US voters — as they did with Carter — turn on a president over the economy.
Ironically, Trump has seemed very aware of the way that Iran was able to create political heat on Carter. Many historians believe the hostage crisis was instrumental in the Democratic president’s loss to Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election after one term.
“I didn’t want to be Jimmy Carter, you know, I didn’t feel like being Jimmy Carter,” Trump said on June 4, in explaining why he did not order a special forces operation to seize Iranian nuclear material from its underground sites.
Trump was referring to the disastrousOperation Eagle Claw, a 1980 attempt to free the hostages. The mission was aborted because of bad weather and ended when a helicopter crashed into a C-130 aircraft in the Iranian desert, killing all eight servicemen on board. The hostages remained in Iranian hands until 20 minutes after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as president in January 1981.
The US economy has shown to be more resilient than it was in 1980. But the war is having an effect.
Average national gasoline prices are back above $4 a gallon, according to AAA. Voters are angry about high prices and are struggling against longer-term affordability trends in housing and healthcare. And oil prices ticked up 0.4% on Monday to $78.49 a barrel as hopes of an imminent deal to open the strait faded.
Trump officials have repeatedly stressed that the burden will quickly ease once the strait opens. But, paradoxically, their comments may only bolster Iran’s negotiating position. Tehran has toughened its demands, including the ending of a US maritime blockade and the departure of American forces from the region; it also wants US compensation for the war and a lifting of sanctions.
This not a deal Trump can accept, so Iran may be overplaying its hand. But if Trump loses patience and relaunches the war, he’ll be doubling down on a deeply unpopular conflict and inviting a worse economic backlash.
The president is trying to recapture the initiative. Hetold Axioshe’s now waiting for the economic impact of the US blockade to kick in. “We are low-keying it,” Trump said Sunday. “We are only semi-negotiating with them.”
In effect, therefore, Trump — after devastating Iran’s military, setting back its nuclear program in last year’s air strikes and hammering its defense industrial base — is betting on the US economy’s greater endurance to get him out of his strategic dead end.
Many analysts believe Iran is more willing to impose suffering on its people as its radical leaders pursue their existential struggle with the US. Maybe the regime will collapse. But it seems unlikely on Trump’s short political timeline.
White House insists the ‘economy is booming’
Republicans can’t wait for domestic relief from the war. Official data Friday showing the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July was a fresh blow to the White House and Republican reelection campaigns — and to all the Americans out of work. But the administration is not wrong to argue the economy is fundamentally resilient — even as high food and housing prices, and wages that don’t seem to keep up, mean most people don’t recognize Trump’s economic “golden age.”
This gap between a White House’s perception of the economy and the experience of regular Americans is a perennial political trap that is often triggered by discordant rhetoric.
“The bottom line is that, if you look at the overall economy, then things are really, really booming,” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CNN’s Tapper. Hassett argued that job losses last month reflected the end of temporary work from the World Cup finals and teachers taking July off. He insisted the economy was creating high-quality jobs and that prices were moderating.
But calibrating an economic message is among the trickiest tasks in politics. It defeated the Republican presidential campaign of John McCain in 2008; Democrats’ midterm campaigns under President Barack Obama in 2010; and the failed campaigns of Biden and Harris in 2024.
And the economy is just one of Trump’s problems.
He told Axios that that the war “will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game.” But on Iran and across the broader political spectrum, his endgame is impenetrable.
