今年，民主党在中西部工业带与农业地带，针对州长、参议员席位发起的竞争力度，达到奥巴马执政初期以来的最高水平。
尽管美国腹地大量选民，尤其在社会文化议题上，依旧对民主党抱有很深疑虑，但生活成本高企带来的不满，削弱了共和党对中部地区的掌控力。两党陷入激烈角逐的州长、参议员席位，既包含密歇根、威斯康星这类传统摇摆州，也涵盖奥巴马时代之后坚定倒向共和党的俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州，甚至内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州。
长期供职于艾奥瓦等地区的共和党资深策略师大卫・科切尔表示：“这些州如今全部成为竞争战场。”
每一场选战都存在独特的地方因素，但共性十分突出：在 2024 年几乎全部支持特朗普的这些州，特朗普的支持率正在下滑，其中白人工薪阶层与农村选民群体的支持度降幅尤为明显，而这部分群体在当地选民中占比极高。
民主党倡导团体 “美国桥梁” 负责付费媒体与合作项目的伊娃・肯普表示：“2024 年他们被许诺生活会变得更好，可现实日子反倒愈发艰难。” 该团体的目标是重新争取工薪阶层选民。
在这片广阔的竞选战场，选战走向取决于两大关键点：共和党能否唤醒保守派选民自奥巴马时期就形成的对民主党的戒备；民主党能否持续让选民聚焦当下对特朗普及其经济治理的失望情绪。
北达科他州前民主党参议员、“同一个国家项目” 创始人海蒂・海特坎普谈到：“特朗普第一任期时，农村地区很多人私下跟我说，‘我不想别人知道我投民主党’。如今越来越多人愿意公开表态：现在的情况不正常，是错的，大家心里都清楚。” 该组织致力于推动民主党在农村地区重整旗鼓。 民主党在中西部的十年衰落
贝拉克・奥巴马就任总统时，工业腹地与农业地带两党竞争态势十分胶着。
分析人士对这一区域的划分标准各有不同，一种由西向东的划分范围包含：南北达科他州、内布拉斯加州、堪萨斯州；明尼苏达州、艾奥瓦州、密苏里州；威斯康星州、伊利诺伊州、密歇根州、印第安纳州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州。宾夕法尼亚州并不乐意被划入中西部，但政治表现上往往和中西部趋同。
2009 年，上述 13 个州合计 26 个参议院席位中，民主党占据 18 席，13 个州长职位拿下 8 个。放到今天难以想象：彼时北达科他州两个参议院席位均归民主党，南达科他、内布拉斯加、艾奥瓦、印第安纳也各有民主党参议员。2008 年大选，奥巴马拿下这 13 州当中的 8 个。海特坎普称：“那时候选民党派对立没有那么严重，更愿意根据实际治理表现投票。”
在此之后，民主党迎来长达十年的衰退。转折点是 2010 年中期选举，选民对奥巴马头两年充满波折的施政发起强烈反弹。当年，民主党丢掉北达科他、印第安纳、威斯康星、宾夕法尼亚，甚至奥巴马家乡伊利诺伊州的参议院席位。同时共和党拿下艾奥瓦、堪萨斯、密歇根、俄亥俄、宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星的州长宝座。
2012 年奥巴马谋求连任，在该区域依旧拿到不错的选票，但民主党后续在 2012、2014，尤其是 2018 年再度接连损失参议院席位，海特坎普以及密苏里、印第安纳的民主党在职参议员纷纷落选。
历经一系列格局变动，如今参议院的党派格局和 2009 年彻底反转：这 13 个州 26 个参议院席位，共和党手握 18 席；州长席位共和党掌控 7 席，奥巴马刚上台时共和党仅有 5 席。海特坎普认为，共和党大力支持联邦农业补贴，加上民主党在社会议题持续向左翼靠拢，两大因素加速了局势反转。
总统大选层面，民主党同样遭遇重创。2024 年哈里斯只保住伊利诺伊、明尼苏达两个传统蓝州；俄亥俄、艾奥瓦这些昔日摇摆州，特朗普得票率飙升至 55％ 以上。经历 2024 年败选之后，在民主党眼中，中部腹地几乎是一片无望之地。 深红选区开始显现民主党取胜机会
时隔两年，民主党迎来多年以来最好的契机，有望在中西部重新站稳脚跟。
州长竞选方面，现任州长乔希・夏皮罗、J・B・普里茨克坐镇，民主党大概率守住宾夕法尼亚、伊利诺伊；明尼苏达州，参议员艾米・克洛布查尔呼声极高，有望接替蒂姆・沃尔兹，沃尔兹因本州福利欺诈丑闻声势受损。密歇根州，民主党州务卿乔斯林・本森在开放席位竞选中，领先共和党候选人约翰・詹姆斯。
上周，戴维・克劳利在初选中上演惊天逆转，击败左翼社会主义者弗朗西斯卡・洪。民主党策略人士认为，这位密尔沃基县行政长官，在威斯康星州长开放席位争夺战中，形势优于共和党众议员汤姆・蒂芙尼。艾奥瓦、俄亥俄自 2006 年后就没有选出过民主党州长，但艾奥瓦州审计官、民主党人罗布・桑德对阵共和党候选人扎克・莱恩，处于有利位置；俄亥俄州前卫生厅长民主党人埃米・阿克顿，与共和党前总统候选人维韦克・拉马斯瓦米选情胶着。
堪萨斯州现任民主党州长劳拉・凯利即将卸任，民主党依旧有竞争机会；内布拉斯加州对阵共和党州长吉姆・皮伦，被视作民主党一个 “黑马突破口”。
参议院席位争夺战中，民主党最有希望翻盘的是俄亥俄州与艾奥瓦州。俄亥俄州前参议员谢罗德・布朗，相比共和党候选人乔恩・休斯特已建立微弱优势；艾奥瓦州共和党众议员阿什利・欣森，小幅领先民主党州议员乔希・图尔克。卫理公会牧师民主党人亚当・汉密尔顿，还有 populist 背景的退伍工会官员独立人士丹・奥斯本，分别挑战堪萨斯州参议员罗杰・马歇尔、内布拉斯加州参议员皮特・里基茨，取胜难度更大，但仍具备竞争力。
和州长竞选不同，腹地民主党需要守住两个参议院席位，而这两个州民主党提名的候选人，立场远较当地传统民主党候选人激进。密歇根州经历激烈初选之后，阿卜杜勒・埃尔‑赛义德必须拓宽自身吸引力，才能对抗共和党迈克・罗杰斯；明尼苏达州整体偏蓝，副州长民主党人佩吉・弗拉纳根处境相对更好，联邦特工射杀当地两名居民一事引发舆论反弹对其有利，但该州新冠时期的福利欺诈丑闻，也会拖累她的选情。
两党同样在宾夕法尼亚州 4 个众议院席位、艾奥瓦、俄亥俄、密歇根各 3 个众议院席位，以及内布拉斯加、威斯康星各 1 个众议院席位展开高强度争夺。种种迹象表明，美国中部，正是 2026 年政治角力的中心。 归根结底，还是经济问题
尽管各地情况千差万别，但这些选战存在共通逻辑，核心就是竞选辩论的焦点。科切尔的观点被不少民主党人认同：“说到底，民主党寄希望于选民切身的经济感受，让选民认为现在掌权的共和党应当为此负责。共和党如果想要取胜，则需要让选民不想回到拜登执政的时代。”
人口结构层面，民主党面临共同难题。布鲁金斯大都会智库人口学家威廉・弗雷对人口普查数据分析显示：威斯康星、艾奥瓦、密歇根等州，2024 年没有四年制大学学历的白人选民（特朗普核心票仓）占全部选票一半以上；俄亥俄、宾夕法尼亚、明尼苏达，该群体占比也接近半数。除伊利诺伊之外，这些州农村人口占比全部高于全国平均水平。
21 世纪初以来共和党牢牢掌控中部腹地，关键就在于民主党在白人工薪阶层、农村选民两大重叠群体当中支持率崩盘。与之相对，民主党在城市人口聚集区稳住阵脚，甚至有所收获。例如 2024 年哈里斯在俄亥俄州哥伦布所在的富兰克林县，得票优势甚至超过 2008 年奥巴马；在得梅因所在的波尔克县，得票和奥巴马仅相差 2 个百分点。
可即便 2008 年奥巴马轻松拿下俄亥俄、艾奥瓦，哈里斯却以两位数差距输掉两州。民主党在中小城镇持续不断流失选票，积少成多造成惨败。
2026 年，特朗普在非白人选民当中全国支持率大幅下滑，民主党有望赢回 2024 年倒向特朗普的少数族裔选民；同时，受过大学教育的白人选民当中，民主党选情也会优于 2024 年。近几个月民调显示，威斯康星、俄亥俄、艾奥瓦、宾夕法尼亚，拥有本科及以上学历的白人选民，对特朗普的不支持率已经突破 60％。
民调反映出的态度意味着：只要民主党在共和党传统票仓取得一点点进步，就足以在竞争激烈的选战中占据有利位置。这些文化立场保守的州，民主党几乎不可能拿下大多数工薪白人、农村选民，但只要在共和党传统强势小镇的输幅收窄，就足以改写结果，毕竟民主党可以在其他群体拿到更多选票。
深耕该地区的民主党策略师皮特・姜雷科表示，俄亥俄、艾奥瓦两大重新回归战场的腹地大州，取胜关键就在于此。
姜雷科说：“俄亥俄、艾奥瓦之所以重回角逐，就是原本深红的县域，变成浅红。以往输掉 50 个点，和输掉 60‑70 个点，完全是两回事。”
想要在工薪白人、农村居民当中挽回支持，经济议题是民主党最有力的武器。2024 年出口民调显示，特朗普在上述各州无大学学历白人选民当中优势巨大。但如今选民对其经济治理失望，宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星该群体对特朗普支持率接近五五开；俄亥俄州也维持在 50％ 以上区间。
与此同时，中部农场主处境艰难：化肥、燃油成本上涨，特朗普关税引发的国际摩擦扰乱农产品出口市场。艾奥瓦一份近期调研显示，该州五分之一农场经营岌岌可危，风险数量是 2022 年的两倍有余。
特朗普支持率下滑，根源不只是民众对整体经济不满，很多选民认为他的政策加重生活困境。伊朗冲突直接推高汽油价格。姜雷科谈到：“老百姓不需要看芝加哥大学的经济学论文，也看得懂油价为什么上涨。”2025 年共和党财税法案当中的医疗补助削减，让农村医院承受巨大压力，进一步激化矛盾。
两党不少政客长期认为关税可以讨好工薪阶层选民，但肯普表示，就连工薪白人男性也开始反感关税，因为关税抬升物价，实实在在冲击日常生活。“他们固然希望制造业回流美国，但焦点小组访谈可以看到，关税让自己日子过得更难。”
面对多重不利局面，共和党并非毫无对策。《伟大美好综合法案》划拨 500 亿美元专项资金扶持农村医院；特朗普计划今年再向农场提供 500 亿美元联邦补贴。环保工作小组一份分析显示，这笔巨额补贴大约相当于农场全部收入的三分之一，而往年联邦补贴通常只占农场收入的十分之一。该组织农业与气候研究高级主管安妮・谢钦格给出上述数据。
威斯康星州老牌共和党策略师马克・格劳尔称，共和党尤其是州长竞选，核心策略是和华盛顿的负面民意切割。“要把选举议题本地化，尽可能不让民主党把选战变成对华盛顿执政的全民公投。”
但格劳尔坦言，做到这点并不容易。2006 年他操盘共和党候选人马克・格林角逐威斯康星州长，当时小布什政府深陷伊拉克战争，民众普遍不满，最终候选人落败。“我亲身经历过，我知道这有多难。”
即便民调显示特朗普在这些州支持率受挫，但同样可以看到：民主党自身形象也并未修复，尤其在无大学学历选民、农村选民这两大关键群体。科切尔表示：“你可以反复说特朗普在部分群体当中支持下滑，但比特朗普更不受欢迎的，恰恰就是民主党。”
今年民主党参与角逐的诸多中部州，想要获胜依旧需要多重有利条件同时出现。但如今，高油价、农场收入萎缩、不得人心的对外战争、行事反复无常的总统，再加上一批实力出众的候选人，让这样的胜利不再遥不可及。
Why the middle of the country is back in the center of American politics
Democrats this year are seriously contesting more races for governor and senator across the industrial Midwest and Farm Belt than at any point since the early years of Barack Obama’s presidency．
The party still faces substantial skepticism from many heartland voters， especially on cultural issues， but frustration over the high cost of living has loosened the GOP’s grip on the middle of the country． The two parties are locked in competitive governor and／or Senate races not only in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan and Wisconsin， but also in states that moved solidly red since Obama’s era — including Ohio， Iowa， and maybe even Nebraska and Kansas．
“These states are all on the playing field，” says David Kochel， a longtime GOP strategist who has worked in Iowa and elsewhere across the region．
Each race presents some unique local dynamics． But the common theme is the erosion of President Donald Trump’s support in states that almost all went in his favor in 2024 — including a notable decline among the working－class White and rural voters who represent such an outsize share of the electorate in these places．
“They were sold a bill of goods in 2024 that their life was going to get easier — and it’s got a hell of a lot harder，” says Eva Kemp， director of paid media and partnerships at American Bridge， a Democratic advocacy group that focuses on recapturing working－class voters．Across this broad battlefield， the key races may turn on whether Republicans can remind conservative－leaning voters of why they have grown so skeptical of Democrats since Obama’s day — or if Democrats can keep them focused on their immediate disenchantment with Trump and the economy．
“In the first Trump term what you would see in rural areas is people whispering to you， like， ‘I don’t want anyone to know I’m a Democrat，’” says Heidi Heitkamp a former Democratic Senator from North Dakota and founder of the One Country Project， a group promoting the party’s revival in rural America． “Now there are more and more people willing to say， ‘This is not normal， this is not right， and you know better．’”
A decade of decline for Midwest Democrats
When Barack Obama took office， the industrial heartland and the Farm Belt remained highly competitive between the two parties．
Different analysts use different boundaries when describing which states fit under those headings． But one definition， running from West to East， might include North and South Dakota， Nebraska and Kansas； Minnesota， Iowa and Missouri； Wisconsin， Illinois， Michigan， Indiana， Ohio and Pennsylvania （which emphatically does not like to be classified as part of the Midwest， but usually behaves like it politically．）
In 2009， Democrats controlled 18 of the 26 Senate seats from those 13 states， and eight of their 13 governorships． It might seem unimaginable today， but Democrats then held both Senate seats in North Dakota， as well as single seats in South Dakota， Nebraska， Iowa and Indiana． Obama carried eight of those 13 states in 2008． At that point， “people were less tribal and more willing to reward performance，” says Heitkamp．
What followed was a decade of decline for Democrats． The big blow was the 2010 midterm backlash against Obama’s tumultuous first two years． In 2010， Democrats lost Senate seats in North Dakota， Indiana， Wisconsin， Pennsylvania and even Illinois， Obama’s home state． Republicans simultaneously flipped control of governor’s mansions in Iowa， Kansas， Michigan， Ohio， Pennsylvania， and Wisconsin．
Obama rallied to run well across the region in his 2012 reelection． But Democrats then suffered further Senate losses there in 2012， 2014 and especially 2018 （when Heitkamp and incumbents in Missouri and Indiana were ousted）．
Today， after all these shifts， the partisan balance in the Senate has inverted from 2009： Republicans now hold 18 of these states’ 26 Senate seats． Republicans also control 7 of the 13 governorships， compared to five when Obama took office． Heitkamp says the growing willingness of Republicans to support federal farm subsidies， and the Democratic Party’s turn left on social issues， both accelerated the reversal．
At the presidential level， Democrats have fallen just as hard． In 2024， Kamala Harris lost all these states except reliably blue Illinois and Minnesota， with Trump’s share of the vote soaring to 55％ or more in the former battlegrounds of Ohio and Iowa． For dazed Democrats emerging from 2024， the heartland looked more like a wasteland．
Long－red regions are starting to look winnable for Democrats
Two years later， Democrats have their best opportunity in years to regain a foothold in the Midwest．
In governor’s races， Democrats are strongly favored to hold seats in Pennsylvania and Illinois （behind incumbents Josh Shapiro and J．B． Pritzker） and Minnesota （where Sen． Amy Klobuchar is heavily favored to succeed Tim Walz，who has been weakened by the state’s welfare fraud scandal．） In Michigan， Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is favored over Republican John James in an open seat race．
After David Crowley’sdramatic comeback primary victoryover socialist Francesca Hong last week， Democratic strategists believe the Milwaukee County executive holds a better hand than Republican Rep． Tom Tiffany for Wisconsin’s open seat． Democrats haven’t elected a governor since 2006 in either Iowa or Ohio． But in Iowa， Democrat Rob Sand， the state auditor， is in a strong position against Republican Zach Lahn． In Ohio， Democrat Amy Acton， the former state Health Department director， is locked in a tight race with former GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy．
Democrats believe they remain competitive in the race to succeed outgoing Democratic Gov． Laura Kelley in Kansas and consider Nebraska a “sleeper” opportunity against GOP Gov． Jim Pillen．
In Senate races， the Democrats’ best opportunities to flip Republican seats are in Ohio （where former Sen． Sherrod Brownmay have established an edge overRepublican Jon Husted） and Iowa （where Republican US Rep． Ashley Hinson is considered a slight favorite over Democratic State Rep． Josh Turek）． Democrat Adam Hamilton， a Methodist minister， and independent Dan Osborn， a populist Navy veteran and former union official， remain viable， if longer－shot， possibilities against low－key Republican incumbents in Kansas （Sen． Roger Marshall） and Nebraska （Sen． Pete Ricketts．）
In contrast with the governors’ contests， heartland Democrats face two serious challenges to hold Senate seats in states where they have chosen nominees much more liberal than their typical Midwestern candidates．After a divisive primary in Michigan， Abdul El－Sayedmust broaden his appealagainst Republican Mike Rogers；after another ideologically divisive primary， Democrat Peggy Flanagan， the lieutenant governor， is in a better position in more reliably blue Minnesota， particularly after the backlash against the killings of two local residents by federal agents — but she will likely be hurt by her proximity to the state’sCovid－era fraud scandal．
The two parties are battling as well over fourhighly competitiveHouse seats in Pennsylvania； three each in Iowa， Ohio and Michigan； and one in both Nebraska and Wisconsin． In all these ways， the middle of the country is at the center of 2026’s political struggle．
It’s （still） the economy…
For all their inevitable local variation， these races present each party with several similar dynamics， starting with the nature of the campaign debate． “At the end of the day， Democrats are hoping what （matters） is people’s lived reality on the economy and that they are going to say， ‘the Republicans are in charge and I blame them，’” says Kochel， in a view echoed by many Democrats． “If Republicans are successful， it’s that ‘I don’t want to go back to what Joe Biden was doing．’”
The common demographic challenge for Democrats is that White voters without a four－year college degree — Trump’s core group — cast half or more of the votes in 2024 in many of these states， including Wisconsin， Iowa and Michigan， and just under half in most of the rest， including Ohio， Pennsylvania and Minnesota， according to census data analyzed by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Metro think tank． And apart from Illinois， all these states also rank above the national average in the share of their population that lives in rural areas，according to census figures．
The key to the Republican consolidation of the heartland states since the early 2000s has been the Democrats’ collapse with these overlapping constituencies of White working－class and rural voters． Amid this retreat， Democrats have held their own — and even gained ground — in population centers． Harris， for instance， won Ohio’s prosperous Franklin County， around Columbus， by an even larger margin in 2024 than Obama did in 2008， and ran only 2 points below his total in Polk County， which revolves around Des Moines．
Yet， while Obama comfortably carried both states in 2008， Harris lost each by double digits． In both states， Democrats have suffered death by a thousand cuts — relentless Republican gains in mid－sized and smaller places．
In 2026， Democrats can reasonably expect to recover with minority voters across the region who moved toward Trump in 2024， given the sharp decline in his national approval among nonwhite adults． And Democrats are on track to run better than in 2024 among college－educated White voters． Public polls in the past few months have shown Trump’s disapproval rating rising past 60％ among White voters with at least a four－year degree inWisconsin，Ohio，IowaandPennsylvania．
Those attitudes mean that， in competitive races， Democrats will be well positioned if they can show almostanyimprovement among the GOP’s best constituencies． In these culturally conservative states， Democrats remain highly unlikely to win most blue－collar White or rural voters． But， given their likely gains elsewhere， it may be enough for the party just to lose by less in the GOP’s small－town strongholds．
Pete Giangreco， a Democratic strategist with extensive experience across the region， points to that dynamic as the key to Democratic chances in Iowa and Ohio， the two biggest heartland prizes that have drifted away．
What’s brought Ohio and Iowa into play is that “the dark red parts of （them） are going to be light red， and that’s a big deal，” Giangreco says． “When you are losing counties by 50 points， instead of 60 to 70， it’s a different ballgame．”
The economy is， by far， the best lever for Democrats hoping to regain ground with blue－collar Whites and rural residents in the heartland states． In 2024， Trump posted huge margins among Whites without a four－year college degree in all these stateswhere exit polls were conducted．But disappointment in his economic record has depressed his approval rating with them to around 50－50 inPennsylvaniaandWisconsinand the upper 50s inOhio．
Likewise， farmers across the heartland are being squeezed between rising costs for fuel and fertilizer and disruption of export markets in the international tussling over Trump’s tariffs．One recent Iowa studycalculated one－fifth of the state’s farms were “finally vulnerable，” well over double the level in 2022．
Trump’s ratings are suffering not only because voters are broadly unhappy about the economy， but because so many believe his policies have compounded their problems — with the Iran war， for instance， directly linked to rising gas prices． “This is not like people need a University of Chicago economics paper to explain why gas prices are high，” Giangreco says． Medicaid cuts in the 2025 GOP tax－and－spending bill thatdisproportionately stress rural hospitalsadd another pain point．
And while many elected officials and political strategists in both parties have long considered tariffs attractive to working－class voters， Kemp says even blue－collar White men have reluctantly turned against them because of their impact on prices． “Much as they might want manufacturing to come back to the US， what they say in focus groups is that their day－to－day lives are hurting because of it，” she says．
Against all these headwinds， Republicans are not defenseless． The One Big Beautiful Bill Act created a $50 billion fund specifically for rural hospitals． Trump wants to channel another $50 billion in federal subsidies to farms this year， a breathtaking sum that would provide roughly one－third of all income for farmers， according to arecent analysisby the Environmental Working Group， an environmental analysis and advocacy group． Usually， federal payments account for only about one－tenth of farm income， says Anne Schechinger， the group’s senior director of agriculture and climate research．
Mark Graul， a longtime GOP strategist in Wisconsin， says the key for Republicans， especially in the gubernatorial elections， will be to try to decouple from the discontent about Washington． “You have to localize the election and do your best not to allow Democrats to make this a referendum on what’s happened in Washington DC，” Graul says．
But as Graul notes， that’s not easy to do． He learned that when he ran the Wisconsin gubernatorial campaign in 2006 for GOP Rep． Mark Green， who lost amid pervasive discontent with another Republican president （George W． Bush） over another Mideast war （Iraq）． “I’ve lived it，” Graul said with a sigh． “I know how hard it is．”
Still， for all the doubts polls across these states register about Trump， they also make clear that Democrats have hardly repaired their own dents， especially among the key non－college and rural constituencies． “You can talk all day about how Trump has taken some hits with some of these populations， but the only thing less popular is the Democratic Party，” says Kochel．
In many of the heartland states Democrats are contesting this year， they will still need a perfect storm to win． But it no longer seems impossible that high gas prices， depressed farm incomes， an unpopular war， an erratic president， and some strong candidate recruitment can produce exactly that．
