美国总统特朗普似乎不再沿用此前针对伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡船只的对等报复策略。
7 月 7 日,特朗普宣布美伊谅解备忘录 “作废”,并放出狠话:一旦霍尔木兹海峡或曼德海峡的商船遇袭,美国将对伊朗实施大规模打击。
然而,伊朗接连两周发动袭击、局势持续升级,美国却没有公布任何军事反击行动,特朗普并未兑现此前的报复威胁。
7 月 22 日,特朗普在社交平台发文称:自即日起,只要伊朗向霍尔木兹海峡内船只开火,美国就会轰炸并摧毁伊朗一座桥梁或发电厂,包括位于首都德黑兰市内及周边的设施。
但此后,特朗普对外表态口径发生转变。
本周三,他淡化商船遇袭事件的影响,称这类袭击仅属于 “滋扰行为”。
这与冲突前期美国确立的应对准则截然不同:彼时美方通常会实施反击,维护海峡航行自由。
尽管袭击持续发生、商业航运量大幅下滑,特朗普依旧宣称美国对海峡拥有 “完全控制权”。
英国海事贸易行动中心的数据显示,自 7 月 29 日美军最后一次打击伊朗目标以来,霍尔木兹海峡、曼德海峡共有 11 艘商船遭到袭击,多名船员受伤。
负责指挥中东美军的美国中央司令部,尚未宣布针对这一系列袭击采取军事行动。而就在周三,特朗普还轻描淡写地看待这些袭击。中央司令部上一次公开实施报复打击,还是在 7 月末。
船舶追踪机构克普勒的数据显示,周二霍尔木兹海峡通行船舶数量较前一日下降 17%,仅有 10 艘船舶通行,其中 6 艘驶出波斯湾,4 艘驶入。
美军此番保持克制,和今夏早些时候的策略形成鲜明对比。7 月 7 日,伊朗袭击霍尔木兹海峡三艘商船后,美方随即展开报复打击,两国 6 月达成的谅解备忘录就此失效。
从特朗普宣布备忘录失效,到 7 月 29 日美军最后一次打击行动期间,两条航道共计约 17 艘商船遇袭。这段时间内,美国连续 16 天实施反击,其中包含连续 13 晚空袭伊朗目标。
特朗普 7 月 7 日对媒体表示:“我们已经狠狠回击,打击力度是对方的 20 倍。只要他们动手,我们就以二十倍力度还击。他们发起袭击,我们就加倍反击。”
整个 7 月,特朗普持续表态,称只要航运船只遇袭,美国就会升级军事行动。
国防部长皮特・赫格塞思、国务卿马可・卢比奥等特朗普核心官员,也多次重申这套军事策略。
卢比奥 7 月 22 日在菲律宾出席东盟峰会时称:“总统的政策是以眼还眼。实话来讲,政策就是如此,伊朗将付出沉重代价。”
Trump appears to have dropped his tit-for-tat approach to Iran attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
After President Donald Trump declared thememorandum of understandingbetween the U.S. and Iranwas "over" on July 7, he threatened heavy strikes on Iran whenever commercial vessels were hit in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
But after nearly two weeks of escalating strikes by Iran with no announced military responses by the U.S., the president hasn't carried through his earlier threats of retaliation.
Trump posted on his social media platform on July 22 that, "From this point forward," any time Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. will "bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT, including those located next to, or in, the Capital City of Tehran."
The president has since shifted his messaging.
On Wednesday, he downplayed attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, saying they were only of "nuisance value."
That is a break with a standard the U.S. set throughout the conflict, in which it regularly retaliated to protect freedom of navigation in the strait.
Trump continues to assert that the U.S. has "complete control" of the strait despite ongoing attacks and dramatically reduced commercial shipping traffic.
Since the last reported U.S. strike on Iranian targets on July 29, there have been 11 commercial vessels hit in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, resulting in multiple casualties to crews, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees American forces in the Middle East, has not announced any U.S. military operations in response to the continuous strikes that the president dismissed on Wednesday. The last retaliatory strikes publicized by CENTCOM were in late July.
On Tuesday, crossings of the Strait of Hormuz declined 17% from the previous day to 10, with six vessels exiting the Persian Gulf and four entering, according to ship tracker Kpler.
The U.S. military restraint contrasts with Trump's strategy earlier this summer, in which the U.S. conducted strikes on Iran as "retribution" beginning on July 7 following Iran's attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the end of the memorandum of understanding the two countries agreed to in June.
From the time when Trump declared the MOU "dead" to the last U.S. strike on July 29, there were approximately 17 commercial vessels struck in the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. During that time, the U.S. responded to these attacks for 16 days in total, including a period of 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iran.
"We just hit them very hard, and I say we hit them 20-1. Every time they hit us, we're going to hit them 20," Trump told reporters on July 7. "And when they hit, we hit back much harder."
Trump continued to express escalating U.S. military operations in response to strikes on commercial shipping through July.
Top Trump officials, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, reiterated Trump's military strategy several times.
"The president's policy is a head for an eye. I mean, honestly, that's what it's going to be. I mean, they will pay a very heavy price," Rubio said on July 22 at The Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Philippines.





