70岁的盖茨在周三发表的近6000字的文章中发出了紧急警告他的个人网站．
他预测将出现大规模失业和经济动荡，并阐述了如果美国和全球领导人不立即合作解决该技术的黑暗面，人工智能落入犯罪分子手中的后果。
“就公平而言，人工智能要么是有史以来发明的最伟大的均衡器，要么是最不公平的来源。挑战是巨大的，”盖茨在他的文章中写道。“即使在最好的情况下，向这个新的人工智能时代的过渡也将是人类历史上最动荡的时期之一。”
盖茨是最新一位对人工智能的快速发展发出警告的科技巨头，他回应了其他人提出的许多担忧。
在一个美国广播公司新闻采访6月，Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代（Dario Amodei）警告说，人工智能需要在适当的护栏下发展，以确保它对世界产生积极影响。
“我们提议加强对该技术的监管，提议赋予政府能力，再次以一种狭隘的方式，阻止不安全技术的部署，”Amodei告诉ABC新闻。
6月，唐纳德·特朗普总统签署了一项行政命令该法案要求人工智能公司在更广泛的发布之前与联邦政府分享产品以供评估。
在接受采访时《纽约时报》在周三发表的文章中，盖茨声称科技行业高管故意淡化人工智能的威胁，暗示他们将利润置于预防措施之上。
“私下里，了解这种东西有多好，以及它变得有多好的人，他们非常担心，”盖茨说，并补充说，很少有技术高管会公开承认这一点。“他们现在互相说：‘嘿，伙计，别这么说。这对我们很不利——我们正在努力筹集的下一万亿美元。＂
“没有计划”
盖茨在他的文章中说，人工智能的进步正在以“令人震惊的速度”前进。
“人工智能第一次可以取代并超越人类的认知，”盖茨写道，并补充说，很快“它将在许多任务上大大优于人类。”
他说，技术的快速进步提出了一些问题，比如如何让它“不扩大贫富差距？”以及如何“保护最容易受到人工智能伤害的人，包括那些失去生计和控制未来的人？”
盖茨说，回答这些问题“应该是世界的首要任务。”
“不幸的是，现在我们还没有为此做好准备，”盖茨写道。“我没有看到领导人、专家和社区充分面对挑战的证据。没有缓和进入AI时代的计划。”
他说，人工智能时代远远不同于个人电脑革命，后者花了20年时间来显著改变人们适应使用个人电脑工作的方式。
“如果有人有一个可信的计划来减缓全球人工智能的进步，我可能会支持它，”盖茨写道。“然而，我认为这是不可能的。地缘政治和经济方面的激励太过强烈，以至于无法全速前进。”
他周三的文章是在接受美国广播公司新闻采访几年后发表的，当时盖茨似乎拒绝暂停人工智能技术，直到一些护栏建立起来。
“如果你只是暂停好人，而不暂停其他人，你可能会伤害自己。你肯定希望好人拥有强大的人工智能，”盖茨在2023面试．
现在，盖茨表示，考虑如何减少失业是当务之急。他提出了几种减缓技术进步的方法，包括对人工智能令牌征税，人工智能公司使用这些令牌来跟踪使用情况并向客户收费。他还说，应该对用来代替人类工人的机器人征税。
“现在，如果你是一个雇主，你雇用了一个人，你必须为他们的收入纳税，但如果你买了一个机器人，你通常可以立即将其作为业务费用注销，”盖茨写道。
他认为，这种税收将“减缓人类劳动力的流失”，同时筹集资金用于重新培训失业的人类工人，并为他们提供更强大的安全网。
盖茨还建议为他所谓的“人类保留领域”保留一些工作，如护理人员、心理健康工作者和一些医疗专业人员。
“想象一下，一个机器人告诉你一个可怕的消息，说你得了不治之症。没有技术上的原因。然而它不应该，”盖茨写道。
正确的诊断错误的处方
华盛顿大学计算机科学教授柳文欢·埃齐奥尼说，他同意盖茨在文章中写的大部分内容。
“我认为他的诊断是正确的，但处方是错误的，至少在某些地方是如此，”Etzioni周三在接受美国广播公司新闻的电话采访时说。
Etzioni也是艾伦人工智能研究所的创始首席执行官，该研究所由已故的盖茨的微软联合创始人保罗·艾伦资助。
他说，尽管国会对取代工人的机器人征税是有道理的，但他不太支持对人工智能令牌征税。
“我认为对代币征税就像对打字机上的按键征税一样。这说不通。它衡量的是努力，而不是工人的流失，”Etzioni说。“我认为这是一个我们需要更好想法的例子。”
Etzioni说，征税以减缓人工智能的进步也很棘手。
“我们必须留意我们的对手。你对你不想要的东西征税。Etzioni说：“你对你希望发生得更慢的事情征税。“这是一种高度竞争环境下的税收。所以如果我们减速，我们会被超越吗？事实上，如果我们对美国代币征税，那么当人们使用中国模型时会发生什么？我们是用这些税把AI用离岸运过去吗？”
他还表示，在制定政策和建立全球机构来控制人工智能技术之前，给人工智能技术踩刹车，这与盖茨在他的文章中发表的另一项声明背道而驰，当时他写道，“我们没有缓慢移动的奢侈。”
“我的建议是，在可能的范围内，当然在美国，我们不需要新的政府机构。我们需要的是现有机构制定正确的政策，”Etzioni说。
Etzioni说，要记住的一件重要事情是，解决人工智能正在创造的问题还不算太晚。
“即使在三年前，我们也不知道发生了什么，也不知道发生的速度有多快。所以现在还不算太晚，”Etizoni说。“让我们确保带着紧迫感和务实精神采取行动，因为三年后可能就太晚了。”
Bill Gates diagnoses problems with AI， but an expert questions his prescription
He helped pioneer the personal computer revolution， but Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates is hitting the panic button onartificial intelligence， writing in an essay that AI is forging the ＂most turbulent time in human history．＂
The 70-year-old Gates issued an urgent warning in the nearly 6，000-word essay published Wednesday onhis personal website．
He predicts massive unemployment and economic turmoil， and spells out the consequences of AI falling into the hands of criminals if U．S． and global leaders do not immediately work together to address the dark side of the technology．
＂In terms of equity， AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented， or the worst source of injustice． The challenge is monumental，＂ Gates wrote in his essay． ＂Even under the best circumstances， the transition to this new AI era will be one of the most turbulent times in human history．＂
Gates is the latest tech titan to sound the alarm on the rapid development of AI， and he echoed many concerns others have raised．
In aninterview with ABC Newsin June， Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned that AI needs to be developed with the proper guardrails to ensure it has a positive impact on the world．
＂We＇re proposing stronger regulation of the technology， proposing giving the government the ability to， again， in a narrow way， block deployment of unsafe technology，＂ Amodei told ABC News．
In June， President Donald Trump signed anexecutive order that requests AI companies share products with the federal government for evaluation before a wider release．
In an interview withThe New York Timespublished Wednesday， Gates alleged that tech industry executives are knowingly downplaying the threats of AI， suggesting they are putting profits over precautions．
＂In private， people who understand how good this stuff is， and how much better it＇s getting， they＇re very worried，＂ said Gates， adding that few tech executives would publicly admit that． ＂They’re now saying to each other： ＇Hey， man， don＇t say that． It＇s bad for us -- the next trillion dollars we＇re trying to raise．＂
＇There is no plan＇
In his essay， Gates said that advances in AI are moving at a ＂mind-blowing rate．＂
＂AI for the first time can replace and exceed human cognition，＂ Gates wrote， adding that soon ＂it will be substantially better than humans at many tasks．＂
He said that the rapid improvements in the technology raise questions such as how to keep it ＂from widening the divide between rich and poor？＂ and how to ＂protect the people who are most vulnerable to the harms of artificial intelligence， including those who lose their livelihoods and the sense that they are in control of their future？＂
Gates said that answering these questions ＂should be the world＇s top priority．＂
＂Unfortunately， right now we are not preparing for it，＂ Gates wrote． ＂I don＇t see evidence that leaders， experts， and communities are confronting the challenges adequately． There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era．＂
He said the AI era is far different than the personal computer revolution， which took 20 years to significantly change how people adapted to working with PCs．
＂If someone had a credible plan for slowing down AI advances globally， I would likely support it，＂ Gates wrote． ＂However， I don＇t think that＇s going to happen． The geopolitical and economic incentives are pushing too hard to go full speed ahead．＂
His essay Wednesday comes years after an interview with ABC News， where Gates seemed to reject pausing AI technology until some guardrails are established．
＂If you just pause the good guys and you don＇t pause everyone else， you＇re probably hurting yourself． You definitely want the good guys to have strong AI，＂ Gates said in the2023 interview．
Now， Gates is saying it is imperative to think of how to reduce job losses． He suggested several ways of slowing the advances of the technology， including imposing a tax on AI tokens， which are used by AI companies to track usage and bill customers． He also said there should be a tax on robots that are used to replace human workers．
＂Right now， if you＇re an employer and you hire someone， you have to pay taxes on their earnings， but if you buy a robot， you can usually write it off right away as a business expense，＂ Gates wrote．
He suggested that such taxes would ＂slow the rush away from human labor，＂ while raising money for retraining displaced human workers and providing them with stronger safety nets．
Gates also suggested preserving some jobs for what he called a ＂human reserved domain，＂ such as caregivers， mental health workers and some medical professionals．
＂Imagine a robot giving you the awful news that you have an incurable disease． There＇s no technical reason why it couldn＇t． Yet it shouldn＇t，＂ Gates wrote．
Right diagnosis， wrong prescription
Oren Etzioni， a computer science professor at the University of Washington， said he agreed with much of what Gates wrote in his essay．
＂I think he has the diagnosis right， but the prescription wrong， at least in some places，＂ Etzioni said in a phone interview with ABC News on Wednesday．
Etzioni is also the founding CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence， which was funded by the late Paul Allen， Gates＇ Microsoft co-founder．
He said that while it makes sense for Congress to impose a tax on robots that replace workers， he is less supportive of taxes on AI tokens．
＂I think that taxing tokens is like taxing keystrokes on a typewriter． It doesn＇t make sense． It measures effort， not displacement of workers，＂ Etzioni said． ＂I think that＇s an example where we need much better ideas．＂
Etzioni said taxing to slow the advances of AI is also tricky．
＂We have to keep an eye on our adversaries． You tax what you want less of． You tax what you want to happen more slowly，＂ Etzioni said． ＂This is a tax in a highly competitive environment． So if we slow down， do we get overtaken？ And， in fact， if we tax American tokens， then what happens when people use Chinese models？ Are we shipping AI use offshore with these taxes？＂
He also said that pumping the brakes on AI technology until policies and global agencies are created to control it flies in the face of another statement Gates made in his essay， when he wrote， ＂We do not have the luxury of moving slowly．＂
＂My suggestion would be， to the extent possible， certainly in the U．S．， we don＇t need new government agencies． What we need is for existing agencies to enact the right policies，＂ Etzioni said．
Etzioni said an important thing to keep in mind is that it＇s not too late to address the problems AI is creating．
＂Even three years ago， we didn＇t know what was happening and how fast it was happening． So it＇s not too late now，＂ Etizoni said． ＂Let＇s make sure that we act with urgency and pragmatism because it may well be too late three years from now．＂
