“抬肘亮剑（Elbows up）” 如今风靡加拿大，T 恤、车贴、标牌、帽子上随处可见这句口号。该说法源自加拿大国球冰球，指球员抬起手肘，守住自身空间、护住冰球、阻挡对手的场上姿态。
面对美国对加拿大商品加征关税，以及特朗普扬言要把加拿大变成美国第 51 个州的威胁，“抬肘亮剑” 被赋予全新内涵：号召加拿大人奋起抗争，捍卫本国主权，对抗实力更强的南方邻国。
而曾打过大学冰球的加拿大总理马克・卡尼，恰恰在美加贸易摩擦中践行了这一口号。在未见缓和迹象的关税博弈中，他态度强硬。上周五两国贸易谈判破裂，三天密集磋商无果，双方互相指责谈判失败。
特朗普的新关税覆盖价值约 200 亿美元的加拿大输美商品，包括葡萄酒、家具、乳制品、水泥、服装、渔竿以及冰球装备。值得注意的是，即便是过去 18 个月里受到三方贸易协定保护的加拿大产品，此次也未能获得关税豁免。
矛盾在周二达到顶峰。加拿大宣布对约 700 种美国进口商品征收 15%‑50% 的大范围报复性关税，正如卡尼所言，做到与美方关税 “金额对等”。新关税将于 9 月 8 日正式生效，双边贸易战争全面升级。
加拿大财政部长弗朗索瓦‑菲利普・尚帕涅周二表示：“接受美方谈判条件，会伤害本国劳动者，损害本土产业，动摇国家根本原则。我们要为本国劳工、企业，为整个加拿大挺身而出。”
前一日，卡尼也在魁北克省莱维斯市面对民众发表同样立场的讲话。
“谈判桌上那种把加拿大视作美国附属国、加拿大产业理应矮美国一头的态度，我们绝不接受。” 他说，“达成互利协议并非没有可能，但这份协议必须尊重加拿大主权与独立，发挥双方互补优势谋求共赢，而不是为短期利益相互拆台。”
回望过往，从 61 岁的前银行家卡尼首次踏入政坛，角逐自由党党魁、最终出任总理那一刻起，就有迹象表明，他会对特朗普采取强硬姿态。
2025 年 1 月，距离大选不到三个月，他低调亮相《每日秀》节目。面对主持人乔恩・斯图尔特，他带着一丝揶揄的微笑表示，加拿大对特朗普的示好 “不感兴趣”。他把自己塑造为局外人，称自己能够应对加拿大即将面临的来自美国的重重挑战。
“试想这样一位候选人：不属于现有政府体系，拥有丰富经济阅历，经历过危机考验，手握应对当下难题的方案。” 卡尼细数自己数十年经济学家与央行行长积累的履历。
斯图尔特调侃：“你这是耍小聪明，以圈外人身份参选。”
卡尼回应：“我的确是圈外人。”
某种意义上此言不虚。卡尼凭借技术官僚、前央行行长的履历赢得加拿大民众支持，深谙国际舞台运作规则。不少前顾问与密切观察人士表示，正是这份 “圈外人” 身份，给了他施展空间，加拿大人认为他超脱于传统政坛的幕后利益博弈。
卡尼的亲密顾问杰拉尔德・巴茨向《政治》杂志坦言：“我一直知道马克擅长政治，但说实话，没料到他会如此游刃有余，恐怕连他自己都未曾想到。”
卡尼的崛起之路始于远离渥太华的地方。他出生于加拿大西北地区偏远的史密斯堡，父母都是教师，向往冒险、信奉公共服务理念。他在艾伯塔省埃德蒙顿长大，冰球与学业双双拔尖，之后成为哈佛大学冰球队替补门将，又赴英国牛津大学深造。
毕业后，他在高盛工作 13 年，随后出任加拿大央行行长，带领国家渡过 2008 全球金融危机。这份履历，让他后来受邀执掌英国央行。任职期间，他推动英国应对脱欧变局，彼时他就曾警示脱欧会带来经济严重衰退、英镑大幅贬值的风险。
英国媒体称他为 “明星央行行长”，盛赞他的外交与谈判能力。2020 年英国央行任期结束后，卡尼回到加拿大，出任联合国秘书长气候行动与融资特使。这份顾问工作，让他近距离观察加拿大政坛，彼时他还没有参选公职的打算。
卡尼竞选的核心主张是，全球格局剧烈变动之际，他正是领导加拿大的最佳人选，特朗普的关税政策就是最直接的佐证。
“这不是普通的时代过渡，而是一场断裂。短时间内巨变接踵而至。以我的经验来看，这种时刻必须拿出宏大、果敢的行动。” 去年末，他接受彭博社米莎尔・侯赛因采访时如是说。
这番表态，也预示几个月之后，他将登上更大的国际舞台。2026 年 1 月，他在达沃斯世界经济论坛发表的演讲迅速走红。他倡议组建 “中等强国” 全球联盟，携手维护自身利益，抵制霸权施压，矛头直指美国。
“很多国家习惯顺从妥协，息事宁人，寄希望于退让换取安全。但这行不通。过去这套自欺欺人的逻辑尚能奏效，大家维持表面仪式，对言辞与现实的鸿沟视而不见。如今这套交易已经难以为继。”
这就是 “抬肘亮剑” 式外交，表述直白而尖锐。此后数月，欧亚多国领导人、外交官纷纷引用此番讲话，很多人认为，卡尼敢于直言，是为数不多敢于硬刚特朗普的人物。
《环球邮报》专栏作家安德鲁・科恩本周接受美国国家公共广播电台采访时评价：“他曾就职高盛，哈佛求学，属于商界精英。别把他刻画成典型反美左翼人士。”
如今，美加谈判破裂，卡尼正在把达沃斯的理念落到实处。加拿大作为美国最大贸易伙伴，成为少数敢于挺身反击的美国盟友。
科恩表示：“卡尼本身是愿意促成交易的人，一辈子都在做各类斡旋谈判。但他清楚国家正处在关键关口，需要凝聚国民意志，直面这场关乎国家存亡的挑战。很多加拿大人认为，他正在扛起这份重担。”
眼下加拿大民众大多支持卡尼，但这套策略会给本国带来怎样的长期经济后果，仍有待观察。
加拿大政治评论员、法学学者杰弗里・迈耶斯接受美国广播公司采访时表示：“卡尼想要实现与美国战略脱钩，目标能否达成尚不确定，前路充满巨大阻碍。倘若真能实现，这将成为加拿大政治史上最重大的转向之一。”
＇Elbows up＇： Why Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may be the right leader for this moment： ANALYSIS
The slogan ＂elbows up＂ is everywhere in Canada these days， emblazoned on t-shirts， bumper stickers， signs and hats across the country． The phrase comes from hockey， Canada＇s national winter sport， where it describes a stance in which a player keeps their elbows raised to protect personal space， shield the puck and ward off opponents．
In the wake ofAmerican tariffson Canadian goods and threats from President Donald Trump tomake Canada the 51st state， ＂elbows up＂ has taken on a second meaning： a rallying cry for Canadians to stand up， fight back and protect their sovereignty from their bigger， stronger southern neighbor．
It＇s fitting， then， that a former collegiate hockey player appears to be embodying that slogan amid the U．S．-Canada trade battle．
Mark Carney， Canada＇s prime minister， is pushing back hard in a tariff fight that shows no signs of easing． The two countries failed to reach a trade deal last Friday， with each side blaming the other for derailing three days of intensive negotiations．
Trump＇s new tariffs affect some $20 billion of Canadian exports to the U．S．， including wine， furniture， dairy products， cement， clothing， fishing rods and hockey equipment． Notably， these duties don＇t exempt Canadian products under the three-nation trade deal that has shielded most Canadian exports over the last 18 months．
The standoff reached its climax Tuesday， when Canadaannounced sweeping retaliatory tariffsranging from 15% to 50% on imports of roughly 700 American products， matching the Trump administration＇s duties ＂dollar for dollar，＂ as Carney put it． The new duties take effect Sept． 8， sharply escalating what is now a full-blown bilateral trade war．
＂Accepting ［the U．S． negotiation terms］ would have harmed our workers， people that you see here today， weaken our industries， and compromise principles fundamental to our nation． So we stood up for our workers， we stood up for our businesses， we stood up for Canada，＂ François-Philippe Champagne， Canada＇s finance minister， said Tuesday．
Carney struck the same note the day before， standing before a small crowd in Lévis， Quebec．
＂An attitude at the negotiation table that Canada is a subsidiary of the U．S．， that Canadian industry is going to be disadvantaged relative to American industry – that＇s not something we＇re going to accept，＂ he said． ＂There is a mutually beneficial deal possible here， but it has to be one that respects Canada＇s sovereignty and independence， that uses our complementary strengths to build something better， not tear apart for short-term gain．＂
In hindsight， the signals that Carney would play hardball with President Trump were there from the moment the 61-year-old former banker entered politics for the first time， launching his bid to lead Canada＇s Liberal Party and eventually becoming prime minister．
His soft launch came in January 2025， fewer than three months before his election， when he sat across from ＂The Daily Show＂ host Jon Stewart and， with a wry smile， said Canada is ＂not interested＂ in Trump＇s overtures． Carney framed himself as an outsider uniquely positioned to meet the challenges Canada would soon face from America．
＂Let＇s say the candidate wasn＇t part of the government． Let＇s say the candidate did have a lot of economic experience． Let＇s say the candidate did deal with crisis． Let＇s say the candidate had a plan to deal with the challenges in the here and now，＂Carney said， laying out the experience he＇s built over decades as an economist and central banker．
＂You＇re sneaky； you＇re running as an outsider，＂ Stewart said．
＂I am an outsider，＂ Carney replied．
In a sense， he was． Carney became prime minister by selling the Canadian public on his experience as a technocratic economic policymaker and former central banker who knows how to operate on the world stage． That outsider status，some former advisors and close watchers of Carney say， is precisely what gives him room to maneuver， with Canadians seeing him as above the grubby backroom dealing of traditional politics．
＂I always knew Mark would be good at politics，＂ Gerald Butts， a close adviser of Carney＇s，told Politico． ＂I didn＇t know he would be this good at politics， to be honest． But who did？ I＇m not even sure he did．＂
Carney＇s path to power began far from Ottawa． Born near the Arctic Circle in remote Fort Smith， Northwest Territories， to a pair of teacher parents who ＂wanted an adventure＂ and ＂believed in public service，＂ he was raised in Edmonton， Alberta， excelling at both hockey and scholastics． He went on to play backup goalie for the Harvard University hockey team before continuing his education at the U．K．＇s University of Oxford．
From there， Carney spent 13 years at Goldman Sachs and five years as governor of the Bank of Canada， where he steered the country through the 2008 global financial crisis， a track record that eventually led to his recruitment as governor of the Bank of England． In that role， he helped guide the U．K． through Brexit， despite him warning then that leaving the European Union could trigger a severe economic downturn and a sharp drop in the pound＇s value．
U．K． headlines dubbed Carney a＂rock star central banker＂and lauded hisskills as a diplomat and negotiator．When his Bank of England term ended in 2020， Carney returned to Canada and took on a new role as the United Nations secretary-general＇s special envoy for climate action and finance， an advisory position that gave him a close-up view of Canadian politics before he ever ran for office．
Carney built his campaign around the idea that he was the person best suited to lead Canada through a moment of sweeping change in the global order， pointing directly to Trump＇s tariff policies as evidence．
＂It＇s not a transition， it＇s a rupture． It＇s big changes in a very short period of time． And I know from all my experience that in those situations， you have to act big， you have to act bold，＂ hetoldBloomberg＇s Mishal Husain late last year．
That framing foreshadowed a moment a few months later that would push Carney even further onto the world stage． During aspeech at the World Economic Forumin Davos in January 2026 that quickly went viral， he proposed a global alliance of ＂middle powers＂ working together to advance their own interests and resist hegemonic pressure， with an unmistakable side-eye toward the United States．
＂There is a strong tendency for countries to go along to get along． To accommodate． To avoid trouble． To hope that compliance will buy safety． It won＇t，＂ Carney said， in part． ＂This fiction was useful． We participated in the rituals． And we largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality． This bargain no longer works．＂
It was ＂elbows up＂ foreign policy， articulated in the starkest possible terms．
Leaders and diplomats across Europe and Asia quoted the speech for months afterward， with many casting Carney as a rare figure willing to stand up to Trump and say plainly what others wouldn＇t．
＂This is a guy who worked at Goldman Sachs， studied at Harvard， he＇s part of the business community． He＇s not your typical lefty anti-American， if anybody＇s trying to portray him that way，＂ Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coynetold NPRearlier this week．
Now， in the wake of the collapsed negotiations with Washington， Carney appears to be putting that Davos philosophy into practice， positioning Canada， America＇s largest trading partner， as one of the only U．S． allies willing to stand up and fight back．
＂This is a guy who would like to get deals done． He＇s been a dealmaker of one kind or another all his life，＂ Coyne said． ＂But I think he also understands the stakes for the country． And I think he understands that this is a moment when he has to lead and has to summon the will of the country to deal with this existential threat． I think a lot of Canadians would say at this point， they think he＇s rising to the challenge．＂
For now， Canadians appear to be supporting Carney． However， what the long-term economic impact of his approach might be for Canada remains to be seen．
＂Whether Carney can achieve his goal of strategic decoupling with the U．S． is by no means clear and will likely be enormously challenging，＂ Canadian political commentator and legal scholar Jeffrey Meyers told ABC News． ＂If it can be done， it will be among the most remarkable pivots in Canada’s history and politics．”
