当前，美伊停火岌岌可危，特朗普与北约盟友矛盾持续激化。本周，美国总统特朗普将前往土耳其安卡拉出席北约峰会。
峰会将于周二、周三(7 月 7—8 日)在贝斯特佩总统府举行，由北约秘书长马克・吕特主持。周二正式开幕，周三闭幕，特朗普将在闭幕后召开记者会。
特朗普此行行程紧凑：周一晚离开白宫，周三晚返回美国。访土期间，他将分别与土耳其总统埃尔多安、乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行双边会晤，并出席多场工作会议。
一、北约 “全面盘点”：军费 5% 目标成焦点
美国驻北约大使马特・惠特克周日表示，本次峰会将全面评估北约盟友落实 “防务开支占 GDP 5%” 承诺的进展，同时评估盟友扩充军力的实际成效，为欧洲防务 “责任转移” 铺路。
“各国进度不一：波兰、北欧、波罗的海国家领跑;德国按计划将于 2029 年达标 5%;但多数盟友严重滞后。”—— 惠特克
特朗普长期抨击北约，甚至多次放出退出北约的风声。今年 4 月，美伊开战，多数盟友不愿参与霍尔木兹海峡的护航与巡逻行动，特朗普公开表达不满。
“没错，我何止是重新考虑。我从来没看好过北约。我一直知道他们是纸老虎，普京也清楚这一点。”—— 特朗普(4 月)
上周，特朗普继续公开批评盟友：
“关系不对等，美国没必要继续单方面付出。他们从未帮过我们。” “美国军费远超所有国家，保护盟友却得不到任何好处。”—— 特朗普社交媒体发文
澄清：北约军费规则
北约要求成员国国防预算占本国 GDP 2%(长期目标)，去年海牙峰会加码至2035 年前达 5%NATO。
美国军费绝对值全球最高，但 GDP 占比约3%，低于波兰、波罗的海国家。
二、美伊战争：北约 “帮不上忙”
特朗普要求盟友支援对伊朗作战，已超出北约集体防御条款(仅适用于成员国遭攻击)。但特朗普将此事视为 “盟友是否对等回报美国安全承诺” 的试金石。
美方高官周日称，霍尔木兹海峡航行自由将列入议程，但多数北约盟友缺乏舰艇与兵力，难以实质参与护航。
“不少盟友表态愿意参与，但真正能派出舰艇、形成战斗力的寥寥无几。”—— 美方高官
三、战略转向：美国要把防务重担甩给欧洲
两名美方高官周日透露，美国正推动欧洲防务欧洲化，目前正在评估驻欧美军部署，很可能调整兵力。
关于美军撤离欧洲的可能性，美方高官确认：国防部长皮特・赫格塞思已在几周前的北约防长会上宣布，将在半年内完成驻欧美军部署评估。
“美国有全球战略需求，兵力部署必须匹配威胁。调整完全基于安全考量，与政治无关。”—— 美方高官 “我们要把担子转给欧洲，调整部署不足为奇。”—— 另一名美方高官
四、北约 3.0：欧洲担责、美国留席
本次峰会紧接6 月 24 日吕特访白宫之后。吕特提出 “北约 3.0”：欧洲承担更多防务责任，美国保留核心参与。他将本次峰会定位为：落实去年海牙峰会的军费与军力承诺。
吕特称，峰会将开启跨大西洋 **“国防工业革命”，宣布数百亿美元军工合同;并直言本次安卡拉峰会比去年海牙峰会更重要 **—— 因为要落实直接针对俄罗斯的具体投资。
“弗拉基米尔(普京)，我们会保卫自己。”—— 吕特(大西洋理事会演讲)
五、土耳其 “大礼包”：特朗普或解禁 F-35
特朗普上周三直言：若非埃尔多安主办，他不会出席峰会，并暗示将给东道主准备一份 **“大礼包”—— 可能包括出售数十架 F-35 战机 ** 给土耳其。
“我此行完全是给埃尔多安面子…… 若非他在土耳其主办，我不会来。”—— 特朗普(6 月白宫会晤吕特时)
土耳其渴望加入 F-35 项目，但因购买俄制 S-400 防空系统遭美国长期禁止。
“我可能会做一件让他非常开心的事。”—— 特朗普
六、俄乌和谈：特朗普要 “结束战争”
俄乌冲突自 2022 年爆发以来，乌克兰问题始终是北约峰会核心议题。
白宫发言人安娜・凯利周日确认：特朗普将于周三下午单独会晤泽连斯基。
美方高官称，特朗普将与泽连斯基讨论如何结束战争：
“双方各有小幅进展，但战线已冻结数月。”—— 美方高官
美方表示，特朗普希望此次会晤推动和平进程，并将后续与普京沟通。
据克里姆林宫通报，特朗普上周六与普京通电话近 90 分钟，谈及乌克兰问题，特朗普 “重申愿寻求冲突解决方案”。白宫暂未回应此事。
US taking stock of NATO as Trump heads to Turkey for summit
President Donald Trump will head to the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, this week as an unstableceasefire between the U.S. and IranandTrump's feud with his NATO alliescontinue.
The summit will be held Tuesday and Wednesday at the Beştepe Presidential Compound and chaired by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The formal opening is scheduled for Tuesday and the event is expected to conclude the following day, when Trump will hold a news conference.
Trump's trip will be brief. He is expected to leave the White House Monday night and return to the U.S. on Wednesday evening. While in Turkey, the president is expected to take part in a bilateral meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and participate in a number of working sessions.
'Taking stock' of NATO
Matt Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said Sunday that the summit will measure the progress of NATO allies' commitment to spend 5% of their GDP on defense and said that the U.S. would also "take stock of our allies' expanding NATO's capabilities in support of the burden-shifting going on here on the European continent."
"Some allies are doing more than others. Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries lead the way, and Germany is on track for the 5%, reaching it in 2029. But many others are lagging behind," Whitaker said.
The summit also comes after Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of leaving NATO. As recently as April, Trump expressed frustration with European allies amid the U.S.'s war with Iran, as many members have been reluctant to join military operations in re-opening and patrolling the Strait of Hormuz.
"Oh yes, I would say [it's] beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed by NATO," Trump said in April when asked if he would reconsider the U.S.'s membership after the conflict ends. "I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way."
More broadly, Trump has been extremely critical of NATO allies over their ability to share the burden of contributing to the post-World War II alliance.
Whitaker said, "The United States remains a proud NATO member," but "we have responsibilities elsewhere in the world as the world's only superpower."
Trump continued his criticism of some NATO allies as recently as last week.
"Ridiculous for the U.S.A. to continue along this one sided path when the relationship is not reciprocal. They were not there for us," Trump wrote last Thursday on his social media platform.
"The United States spends more money on NATO than any other country, by far, to protect them, without getting any benefit from so doing," the president also claimed on Thursday in a post on social media.
While Trump claims that allies spend "on NATO," that's not how the alliance works. Member states must spend 2% of their GDP on their own national defense budgets. The U.S. is NATO's largest defense spender by virtue of having the world's largest defense budget. But taken as a percentage of GDP, the US has hovered around 3% range -- less than Poland and Baltic allies.
NATO's involvement in Iran war
Trump's requests for allies' support in the U.S. war against Iran goes beyond NATO's collective defense agreement, which calls for all to respond to an attack on a member country. Yet Trump has framed it as a test of whether allies reciprocate in return for American security commitments.
A senior U.S. official said Sunday the U.S. believes ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz would be on the agenda, but that many NATO allies don't have the capabilities to support those operations.
"I certainly believe that the Strait of Hormuz and the protection of the maritime traffic going through there is going to be a subject that comes up," the official said.
But, they continued, "Many [NATO allies] don't have the necessary ships or assets to contribute to a meaningful maritime effort" despite the fact that "we've had a lot of allies raise their hand and offer to participate."
Shifting the burden to NATO allies
Two senior U.S. officials said on Sunday that the U.S. plans to further shift the burden of European defense onto European countries, saying that a force posture review currently underway of the military's presence in Europe "very well may lead" to changes.
Asked about the potential for a U.S. force reduction in Europe, one senior U.S. official confirmed that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended a meeting of NATO defense ministers weeks ago to announce a "six-month or less" review of the U.S. force posture in Europe.
"The main reason being, we continue to have global demands as the United States of America, and we should always be looking at how we're deployed to our threats," the official said, adding that any shift in troop placement would be "based on nonpolitical reasons."
"There should be no surprise that we're doing a posture review or surprise if that posture review very well may lead to us adjusting our posture because we're trying to shift burden to Europe," another official added.
NATO 3.0
The summit comes fresh off of Rutte's visit to the White House on June 24, when he said NATO is entering a new phase centered on greater European responsibility while keeping the U.S. engaged in the alliance. Rutte framed the summit as the moment when member countries begin implementing the spending and capability commitments made at last year's Hague summit.
Rutte said the summit will be the beginning of a transatlantic "defense industrial revolution," promising announcements of "tens of billions" of dollars in defense-related contracts. He ventured that this year's summit is "more important" than last year's in the Hague because of implementation of concrete investments aimed directly at Russia.
"Vladimir, we will defend ourselves,"Rutte addressed Russian President Vladimir Putin in a speech to the Atlantic Council last week.
A 'big gift bag' for Turkey
Trump said last Wednesday he would not have attended the summit were it not for his relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and suggested he plans to bring a significant offer, or a "big gift bag" for his host -- potentially including the sale of dozens of F-35 fighter jets to the country.
"I am going to the summit out of respect for President Erdogan ... Except for the fact that it was being held in Turkey by President Erdogan, I don't think I would have gone to it," Trump said before a meeting with Rutte in the Oval Office in June.
Turkey is seeking to join the U.S. F-35 program, but it is prohibited from doing so as long as it possesses Russian-made air defenses.
"I'm probably going to do something that's going to make him very happy," Trump said.
Ending the war in Ukraine
As has been the case since the war with Russia began in 2022, the issue of Ukraine is also likely to play a key role in the NATO gathering.
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said Sunday that Trump will meet separately with Zelenskyy on Wednesday afternoon in addition to other meetings with NATO leaders.
A senior U.S. official said Sunday that Trump planned to speak with Zelenskyy about "how we can end the war."
"So, there are some small areas where Ukraine has made progress. There's some small areas where Russia has made progress. But, the line of contact has been frozen over the last couple of months," the official said.
The official said that Trump was hopeful a meeting with Zelenskyy could bring the war closer to an end.
"We're hopeful that we can make progress towards doing that when, when the president gets together with President Zelenskyy and I'm sure he'll follow up with President Putin as well," the official said.
The conversation with Zelenskyy would come after Trump spoke with Putin on Saturday for nearly an hour and a half, according to a Kremlin readout, which noted that the two touched on Ukraine and that Trump "reiterated his readiness" to find a solution to the conflict.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the call.
