多名美国官员透露，美沙两国本周签署具有里程碑意义的民用核能协议。这份协议并未增设强化核查条款，同时留下一个可能性：沙特未来有望在本国境内开展铀浓缩活动。
在尚未落实专门国际保障监督机制的前提下，为沙特本土铀浓缩放行，已经引发核防扩散专家普遍忧虑。
特朗普总统正寻求延续其首个任期取得的重大外交突破。随着这份协议条款细节曝光，外界猜测：沙特最终能否获得铀浓缩能力，或将取决于利雅得是否愿意与以色列建立外交关系。
知情人士称，新达成的核能协议文本并未明确提及以色列。然而周四，特朗普似乎给这份刚敲定的协定设置阻碍，提出附加条件：沙特必须加入《亚伯拉罕协议》。该系列双边协议最初诞生于特朗普第一任期，旨在促成阿拉伯国家与以色列关系正常化。
特朗普在社交媒体发文称：“与沙特的这份协议将会获批，但前提是沙特加入广受认可、成果丰硕的《亚伯拉罕协议》。” 总统同时声称，协议中将写明 “禁止核材料浓缩活动”。
但美国广播公司援引消息人士证实，特朗普提到的两项条件 —— 沙特加入《亚伯拉罕协议》、承诺放弃铀浓缩，均没有写入双方正式签署的协议文本。
美方官员表示，上述两项议题有望在后续磋商中解决。根据这份核合作协定，沙特能否推进铀浓缩，需要美国开展为期两年的研究评估：对比本土建设浓缩设施、直接进口核燃料两种方案的商业可行性。即便开展核能电站合作，美国政府依然拥有最终决定权，可以拒绝向沙特转让铀浓缩相关技术。
前美国国务院、国家安全委员会官员理查德・内夫评论：“令我值得关注的一点是，美方把沙特铀浓缩权限，和沙特承认以色列这一前提绑定。这套方案或许能奏效，但我心存疑虑。整个博弈链条变得更加复杂，想要落地恐怕难度不小。”
特朗普政府官员向美国广播公司表示，协议框架能够让美国掌握更多撬动沙特的筹码。
这份两年期评估报告预定在特朗普任期届满前夕出炉。美方官员认为，这一时间窗口足够推动斡旋以色列与沙特达成关系正常化。
华盛顿研究所海湾事务高级专家西蒙・亨德森说：“也有可能，阿以关系正常化议题，会被纳入这一场为期两年、围绕‘是否需要铀浓缩’的讨论框架之内。”
白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳・莱维特周四表态，美国与沙特的谈判还将持续推进。 “总统永远是最终拍板人。”
沙特官方尚未公开回应特朗普有关《亚伯拉罕协议》的表态，但美国官员预估，此事不会导致这份核能合作协定破裂。
拜登执政时期，沙特一度距离与以色列实现关系正常化很近;2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯发动袭击、以色列随后在加沙展开军事行动，相关谈判进程陷入停滞。
自那以后，沙特始终明确表态：除非达成建立独立巴勒斯坦国的清晰路径，否则不会签署《亚伯拉罕协议》。而以色列认为，巴勒斯坦建国会对本国安全构成生存层面威胁。特朗普政府能否打破这一僵局，目前仍是未知数。
协议为何触发核扩散担忧
知情人士透露，美沙这份核能协议历经数月谈判，沙特争取到多项此前美方坚决不肯让步的有利条款。
官员介绍，除拒绝彻底排除本土铀浓缩选项外，沙特还拒绝签署国际原子能机构(IAEA)的《附加议定书》—— 这份法律文件赋予机构扩大现场核查、持续监测的权限。
美沙双方拟定的保障监督协定，需要获得国际原子能机构审核，确认符合两国共同签署的《不扩散核武器条约》。
国际原子能机构在回应美国广播公司问询时表示，机构 “知悉相关计划，将应双边协定要求落实核查措施”。相关保障监督方案还需要机构理事会审议授权后方可实施。
曾任美国驻维也纳国际原子能机构大使的肯尼斯・布里尔警告，沙特抗拒接受《附加议定书》核查，“为未来埋下隐患与风险信号”。 “美国绝不应当在没有国际原子能机构强力核查机制的前提下，同意沙特开展铀浓缩。”
亨德森指出，沙特存在秘密推进核武化的可能性，“是这份协议最突出的漏洞”。 “沙特态度十分反常地抵触《附加议定书》，这难免让人怀疑，沙特方面有所隐瞒。”
周三，国务卿马尔科・卢比奥在菲律宾接受记者采访，坚称沙特无法将民用核项目转向核武器研发。 “简单来说：美国和任何国家签署民用核能协议，都会配套保障监督机制，确保相关项目不能转化为核武器计划。”
美国国会议员提出，任何美沙核协议都必须满足所谓“黄金标准”，即沙特书面承诺放弃铀浓缩、乏燃料后处理等易裂变材料加工活动。包括卢比奥担任参议员时期在内，共和党议员多次推动立法，要求给此类合作协议增设硬性约束。
参议院外交委员会主席、爱达荷州参议员吉姆・里施去年 11 月表态，最终落地的协议 “必须纳入黄金标准条款”。
周四，里施向美国广播公司发布声明：“我期待看到协议完整文本，并与政府共同开展审议。我曾多次与沙特王储穆罕默德・本・萨勒曼沟通，我们双方一致认为，一份合理的核能合作协定符合两国共同利益。”
国际原子能机构前副总干事、负责保障监督事务的奥利・海诺宁警示：一旦沙特获得铀浓缩权限，韩国等其他国家很可能跟进谋求同类技术，争相打造 “核待机潜力”。 他谈及《不扩散核武器条约》体系时表示：“全球核裁军进程将遭遇停滞，这是我们必须正视的现实。”
Trump's hunt for leverage over Saudi Arabia fuels nuclear proliferation concerns
U.S. officials say the historic nuclear energy deal between theU.S. and Saudi Arabia, signed by both governments this week, presents the possibility that uranium enrichment could eventually happen on Saudi Arabian soil while omitting a requirement for expanded oversight.
Opening the door to enrichment in Saudi Arabia without specific international safeguards in place has raised concern from nuclear proliferation experts.
And as President Donald Trump hunts for ways to expand on a landmark diplomatic breakthrough from his first administration, revelations about the contents of the deal are also sparking speculation that Riyadh's enrichment capabilities may ultimately be decided by its willingness to establish a diplomatic relationship with Israel.
On Thursday, President Trump seemed to throw a wrench into the newly struck energy deal -- which sources say doesn’t explicitly mention Israel --by conditioning it on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, a series of bilateral agreements between Israel and Arab states that were initially signed during Trump's first term in office.
Trump wrote in a social media post that the deal with Saudi Arabia "will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords."
The president also wrote in the post that there would be "no enrichment of material."
Both of the president's claims, that the Abraham Accords and a Saudi promise not to enrich were part of the deal, are not elements of the signed agreement, sources told ABC News.
Officials anticipate both matters could be resolveddown the line. They say the nuclear cooperation agreement stipulates that the future of Saudi enrichment will be decided only after the U.S. carries out a two-year study to explore the possibility of its commercial viability compared to importing nuclear fuel, and that the administration can still decide against transferring enrichment technology while cooperating with Riyadh on building nuclear energy plants.
"It's just notable to me that we're making contingent Saudi enrichment ... on recognition of a relationship with Israel," said Richard Nephew, a former State Department and National Security Council official. "Maybe that works, but I don't know. It just seems to me that we're adding more complexity there, and I am at least a little bit suspicious that that will be harder to pull off."
Trump administration officials told ABC News they believe the contours of the agreement could give it more leverage over Riyadh.
The two-year study is set to wrap shortly before Trump's term expires, which administration officials say could give them an adequate runway to broker a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
"It could also be [that] the issue of normalization could also be shuttled into this supposed two-year ... discussion on the actual need for enrichment," said Simon Henderson, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and expert in Gulf affairs.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt indicated on Thursday conversations with Saudi Arabia would continue.
"The president is always the final dealmaker," she said.
Saudi Arabia has not yet publicly responded to Trump's assertion about the Abraham Accords, but U.S. officials said they did not anticipate that it would derail the energy pact.
Riyadh came close to normalizing relations with Israel under the Biden administration, but that progress was derailed after Hamas' attacks on Oct. 7, 2023 and Israel's subsequent campaign in Gaza.
Since then, Saudi Arabia has consistently indicated that it would not sign onto the Abraham Accords unless a clear pathway to an independent Palestinian state is established, which Israel says would be an existential threat to its security.
Whether the Trump administration can overcome the impasse is unclear.
Why the deal is sparking proliferation concerns
The energy deal with between Riyadh and Washington is the product of months of negotiations, and Saudi Arabia managed to come away with several favorable terms that were once seen as non-starters by the U.S., sources said.
In addition to refusing to rule out uranium enrichment, officials say the Saudis also rejected what is known as the "Additional Protocol"-- a legal agreement that grants the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expanded inspection and monitoring authority.
The IAEA must approve the safeguards agreement struck between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to ensure it is in compliance with the Nonproliferation Treaty, to which both countries are parties.
In response to a question from ABC News, the IAEA said it is "aware" of a "plan to ask the IAEA to implement verification measures in relation to this bilateral agreement."
The Agency's Board of Governors will then consider authorization for the safeguards agreement to be implemented, it said.
Riyadh's resistance of nuclear inspections in the Additional Protocol "is a red flag for future concerns and problems," said Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. ambassador to the IAEA's headquarters in Vienna.
"The U.S. should never have agreed to enrichment without a really strong inspections regime with the IAEA," he said.
The prospect of a covert weaponization effort undertaken by Saudi Arabia, Henderson said, "is the most glaring problem of the agreement."
The kingdom "seem[s] curiously averse to the Additional Protocol ... which rather suggests the Saudis have got something to hide," he said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in the Philippines on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia would not be able to convert the civil program to a weaponization effort.
"Suffice it to say that any agreement that we're going to make with any country in the world on civil nuclear energy is going to be one that will have safeguards in place to ensure that it can't be turned into a weapons program," Rubio said.
Members of Congress have said that any nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia should meet a so-called "gold standard" by which Riyadh makes a commitment to forgo enrichment or reprocessing of fissile materials. Republicans, including Rubio when he was in the Senate, have made legislative efforts to attach strings to any such deal.
Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in November that the gold standard "has to be" included in any finalized deal.
In a statement to ABC News Thursday, Risch said he "look[s] forward to seeing the details of the agreement and working with the Administration to review it."
"I have talked to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about this on a number of occasions and both of us have been in agreement that an appropriate nuclear agreement would be in the best interest of both of our countries," he said.
Olli Heinonen, a former deputy director-general for safeguards at the IAEA, said other countries, including South Korea, would likely follow Saudi Arabia in pursuing uranium enrichment and seeking "nuclear latencies."
"The original [Nonproliferation Treaty's] nuclear disarmament takes a break," Heinonen said, referring to the global pact barring the proliferation of nuclear weapons. "These are realities."
